Operation “True Promise”:Iran’s Failed Revenge
A lecture by Dr. Uzi Rubin, July 16, 2024.
Dr. Rubin was founder and first director (1991-1999) of the Israel Missile Defense Organization in the Israel Ministry of Defense, which developed, produced and deployed the country’s first national defense shield – the Arrow missile. He subsequently served as Senior Director for Proliferation and Technology in the National Security Council (1999-2001), and directed several defense programs at the Israel Aerospace Industries and in the defense ministry. He was twice awarded the Israel Defense Prize (1996 and 2003). He was also awarded the US Missile Defense Agency “David Israel” Prize (2000). He has been a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center for International Security and Arms Control, where he directed a study on missile proliferation.
A lecture by Dr. Uzi Rubin, July 16, 2024.
While the effectiveness of the anti-ship weapons used by the Houthis against cargo vessels and warships appears to be quite limited – both due to technical restrictions and interception by US and UK warships – they still are effective enough to threaten freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and disrupt maritime supply lines from East Asia to Europe and the Middle East. If the current “Swords of Iron” campaign escalates into a full-scale war along Israel’s northern border, decision-makers in Jerusalem will have to take into account the potential of Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in Syria and Iraq to employ similar weapons and tactics to disrupt Israel’s maritime supply lines in the Mediterranean.
“Ayesh 250” was fired toward IDF Northern Command headquarters in Safed. Hamas’ flagship rocket, named after terrorist mastermind, was intercepted and destroyed by Israel’s David Sling.
How Israel’s premier defense missile system developed and eventually became the system being used to defend Europe.
What are the prospects that the terrorist organizations in Northern Samaria will acquire missile capabilities equal to those of Hamas and Palestinian Jihad in Gaza? Israel needs to prepare for what may soon transpire inside Palestinian cities.
Iran has become a significant supplier of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s agreement to violate the unofficial arms embargo that the world imposes on Russia has political and military significance to Israel that may be reflected in limiting Israel’s freedom of action in Syria. In the short time since their introduction on Ukraine’s battlefields, the Iranian UAVs proved their lethality and the difficulty in defending against them. Undoubtedly, Iran’s armed forces will gain valuable lessons from the operation of its UAVs in a high-intensity war. Israel must follow the developments closely.
Operation “Breaking Dawn” achieved its military and political goals. But it also demonstrated the neck to neck race between the growth rate of the Palestinian’s rocket capabilities and Israel’s defensive capabilities. Israel should prepare for a situation where the current configuration of missile defense will not be sufficient to contain the rocket offensive.
A significant dimension of the Battle of Ukraine is the extensive use of cutting-edge, 21st Century weapons, namely UAVs and precision missiles, both ballistic and cruise. Of the three types of weapons, precision cruise missiles seem to have been the most effective to date.
The growing capabilities and the impressive skill of their operators elevate the threat from Iran’s unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) from a nuisance to a strategic level on par with Iran’s missiles and rockets threat on Israel.
Briefing by Dr. Uzi Rubin, Thursday, July 29, 2021
The West is focusing on the tragic humanitarian costs of the war in Yemen while turning a blind eye to the significant strategic implications of a Houthi/Iranian victory. This approach imperils Middle Eastern and Western security.
The launch of Iran’s first solid propellant space rocket is highly significant.