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Home / Policy Papers

Policy Papers

JISS Policy Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.

What does Russian Mideast-related diplomatic activity signify?

A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 30.03.2021
Russia
Unidentified young Yemeni man holds a rifle in Aden, Yemen.

The Significance of Events in Yemen for the Mideast Strategic Equation

The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 30.03.2021
US Middle East Policy Yemen

America Should Not Make the Mistake of Adopting the Arab Interpretation of UN Resolution 242

Washington will bury any chance for peace if it reverts to the “Everybody Knows Paradigm” which demands Israeli withdrawal to the 1949 armistice lines

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.03.2021
US Israel Relations

No Agreement is Better than Another Bad Agreement with Iran

Israel-US dialogue is necessary about Iran’s nuclear program, since a good agreement with Iran is a clear Israeli interest. But Israel must be prepared with a military option against Iran, as a last resort.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 17.03.2021
Iran
Oil tanks in Ras Tanura

Who Bombed the Saudi Oil Storage Yard at Ras Tanura?

The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 16.03.2021
Saudi Arabia Yemen
Former Vice President of the United States Joe Biden speaking with attendees at the 2019 Iowa Federation of Labor Convention hosted by the AFL-CIO at the Prairie Meadows Hotel in Altoona, Iowa.

Is Israel on collision course with Biden administration?

Jerusalem views with trepidation the possibility that the Biden administration will embark on a human rights crusade in the Middle East.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 06.03.2021
US Israel Relations
The fence of the border between Israel and Syria as seen from a hill on the Golan Heights about 10 kilometers south/south-east of the city Al Quneitra

The Israel-Russia-Syria deal: Cost, beneficiaries and future deals

As Israel and Syria concluded a deal on the return of an Israeli woman from Syria, questions arise regarding the cost and what the future of such transactions with Russian mediation should be.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 03.03.2021
Israel - Russia relations Syria

Turkish-Iranian Rift: An Opportunity for Israel

Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 02.03.2021
Iran Turkey

Events in Yemen are an indicator of broader regional dynamics

The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 02.03.2021
Yemen

Iran’s Winged Horse Rocket: Another Step Towards Global Reach

The launch of Iran's first solid propellant space rocket is highly significant.

Dr. Uzi Rubin
Policy Papers 02.03.2021
Iran

Israel and the Palestinian Issue in the Biden Era

The next Israeli government would be well-advised to come-up with its own proposals for improving the life of Palestinians, both to further improve its own regional standing and to meet (some of the) administration’s expectations, in dialogue and partnership.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 22.02.2021
Israeli Palestinian Conflict US Israel Relations

Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria

Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 15.02.2021
Syria
3d illustration. Speech bubbles with Turkey, Pakistan flags. Image with clipping path

Turkey, Pakistan: Inside the Ankara-Islamabad axis

Turkey and Pakistan’s growing closeness has deep foundations. These are two countries following a similar trajectory.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.02.2021
Pakistan Turkey

Iran Must Not Be Allowed to Win the Nasty War in Yemen

Many have raised understandable moral qualms (and practical questions) about conduct of war in Yemen. Indeed, the coalition fighting the Houthi uprising should be more attentive to the loss of innocent lives. But allowing Iran’s proxies to win the war in Yemen would have dangerous political and far-reaching strategic consequences for Israel, the region, and US interests.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 09.02.2021
Iran Yemen

Biden’s Eastern Mediterranean Agenda

Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan's ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 09.02.2021
US Middle East Policy
Pakistan Flag

More Loyal than the King

As a major Islamic nation, Pakistan has a duty towards the Muslim ummah which it must respect.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 03.02.2021
Pakistan

Erdogan using deniable private militias to destabilize the Middle East

Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak , Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 03.02.2021
Turkey
Turkey Gift illustration

Israel should stay wary of Turkey’s gifts

Only the very optimistic could believe in real strategic cooperation between Erdogan’s regime and Jerusalem.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 31.01.2021
Turkey

Iran Raises the Stakes for Biden

Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.

Mr. Alexander Grinberg
Policy Papers 26.01.2021
Iran US Middle East Policy
The Elephant symbol of the Republican Party and the Donkey symbol of the Democratic Party, with the American flag behind

Restoring American Bipartisan Commitment Towards Israel: A Moral Duty and Strategic Necessity

It is possible to restore American bipartisan backing for Israel. Therefore, it is important to avoid being too identified with President Trump, despite Israeli gratitude due to him for many of his policies. Bonds between Israel and American Jewry should be bolstered; bridges should be built to both sides of the aisle in Congress; and US defense establishment support should be solicited. All this, in view of Israel's need to influence decisions in Washington on matters vital to its future.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 23.01.2021
US Israel Relations

Why Pakistan won’t be next to normalize with Israel

Domestic constraints, support for Palestine and growing ties with Iran will likely continue to keep Pakistan and Israel apart.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 12.01.2021
Abraham Accords

Beware Chinese Anger

The growing friction between China and Australia is a function of Beijing’s swagger and self-confidence. Israel must take note of Beijing’s aggressive behavior, and cautiously navigate its own relations with China.

Mr. Tuvia Gering
Policy Papers 28.12.2020
Australia China

Understanding Israel’s War in the ‘Grey Zone’

Israel seeks to disrupt Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 27.12.2020
israeli-iranian relations

From the Ocean to the Gulf: Normalization takes Hold

Morocco has maintained open channels with Israel for many years, and it values the unique Jewish contribution to its heritage. A new pattern of normalization with Israel now extends from the Atlantic to the Gulf. Morocco’s coordination with the US also is a vital part of the emerging alignment of forces of stability in the region. Israel now should give this breakthrough a firm grounding in policies beneficial to both peoples.

Professor Efraim Inbar , Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 14.12.2020
Middle East
Palestine flag illustration

The Collapse of Palestinian Grand Strategy

The Palestinian quest for an internationally imposed “solution,” which would not require them to negotiate a compromise deal with Israel, has failed. Palestinian leaders may attempt this again after Joe Biden becomes US president, but this will fail yet again, since the collapse of their past strategy is due to much more than the policies of the Trump Administration. Indeed, evolving regional and global realities allow for a new Israeli peace initiative, which can preserve the underlying principles of the Trump outline for peace.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 08.12.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh Car

A strategic event with a message to Iran and Biden

The taking out of the senior Iranian nuclear scientist is a blow to the Iranian leadership as much as the killing of Qassem Suleimani was. But it is also a signal to the next administration in Washington. The president-elect will not be able to deal with the Iranian nuclear project like just another diplomatic issue.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 29.11.2020

Israel’s Role in Helping the Biden Administration Set Policy Towards Iran

Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, "stronger and longer" deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran's present course.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror , Professor Efraim Inbar , Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 24.11.2020
Iran US Israel Relations

Time for an Israeli Peace Initiative

To acquire greater freedom of action in dealing with Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, Israel needs to minimize tensions with the US on the Palestinian front.

Professor Efraim Inbar , Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 24.11.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict US Israel Relations
Silhouettes of three F-35 aircraft on sunset sky background

US Must Protect Israel’s QME After F-35 Sale to UAE

As the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, America plays a critical role in ensuring that its sales uphold and do not adversely affect Israel’s security.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 19.11.2020
US Israel Relations

China’s Alternative Vision for Gulf Security

Trump's Middle East peace plan and the recent Israel-Arab peace accords limit Chinese influence in the region. Countering this, China is advancing a collective security concept for the region based on the JCPOA. The US and Israel must stymie this Chinese gambit and reinforce the Abraham Accords.

Mr. Tuvia Gering
Policy Papers 17.11.2020
Arab Gulf states China
Donald and Melania Trump with Benjamin and Sara Netanyahu

Why Israelis Like Trump

From his rejection of Obama-era political correctness to his family make-up, Trump has charmed Israelis.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 03.11.2020
US Israel Relations

Egypt’s Support of Normalization is part of the Mediterranean Alignment

Egypt's public welcome of the normalization between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain and Sudan is one of the payoffs emerging from the important Egypt-Israel partnership in the eastern Mediterranean.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 01.11.2020
Egypt
Yitzhak Rabin

Rabin’s True Legacy

Prime Minister Rabin insisted on defensible borders. He never entertained a return to the 1967 borders nor any territorial swaps.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 28.10.2020
Putin and Al-Sisi

Russia Attempts to Move Closer to Egypt as US Withdraws

The efforts of Moscow to assert itself as a power in the eastern Mediterranean should sound a cautionary note.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 25.10.2020
Egypt Russia
Abraham Accords and China Flag Illustration

China’s View of the Abraham Accords

China aims to play a more proactive role in the Middle East, maintaining cordial relations with all rival countries. Beijing attaches great importance to its ties with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt, and therefore has welcomed the Abraham Accords (albeit in lukewarm fashion, because of tensions with the Trump administration).

Mr. Tuvia Gering
Policy Papers 20.10.2020
China China-Israel Relations
Israel Lebanon flags

The Lebanese-Israeli Maritime Border Talks: An Important Step Forward

The talks suggest that when common interests exist, Israel can engage beneficially and pragmatically even with enemies, resulting in de-escalation and mutual benefit.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 15.10.2020
Israel Lebanon Relations Lebanon

The Beirut Disaster: A Chance for a Systemic Change in Lebanon?

The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.

Dr. Aiman Mansour , Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.10.2020
Hezbollah Lebanon
Protestor holding a photo of Assad

The Israeli Interest: Keep Syria Weak

Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 02.10.2020
Syria
Silivri Prison in Silivri, Istanbul Turkey

Turkey’s Salafists, ISIS, and the Revolving Doors of Turkish Prisons

Turkey wants to have it both ways: To act against the Salafists, while using them as dispensable mercenaries against the Kurds.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 02.10.2020
ISIS Turkey
EU-TURKEY FLAGS ILLUSTRATION

An EU response to Turkey’s increased aggressiveness

Turkey’s ambitious and expansionist leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has capitalized on the end of the Cold War and on US isolationist tendencies in enhancing Turkey’s international standing.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 02.10.2020
Europe Turkey

Why Qatar should not be designated an ally of the United States

Doha, alongside Ankara, is undermining American interests in the Middle East.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 29.09.2020
Qatar US Middle East Policy

France Needs Israel as a Strong and Firm Ally

Is President Macron capable of reshaping Franco-Israeli relations?

Col. (res.) Olivier Rafowicz
Policy Papers 24.09.2020
Israel France Relations

Egypt-Jordan-Iraq: Another Middle East Axis in the Making?

Egypt, Iraq, and Jordan seek to develop a regional bloc in the geographical center of the Arab world. But all three countries are poor and dependent in for economic largesse on more wealthy partners, so their regional aspirations and strategies will necessarily be limited.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 22.09.2020
Egypt Iraq Jordan

Stabilizing forces growing stronger

The peace deals between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain mark the completion of an existing process by which the region's stabilizing forces are banding together against the Iranian threat.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.09.2020
Bahrain Iran

Gulf states seek warm peace with Israel

The diplomatic moves toward Israel taken by the UAE and Bahrain make it clear that Arab states can act in their own national interest when it comes to international politics, rather than abide by a stale lowest common denominator of "Arab consensus."

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 14.09.2020
Arab Gulf states
china iran handshake

The China-Iran Agreement is not a Strategic Shift

The long-term agreement between the two countries has not been finalized, and its scope and security implications seem to be limited. It is unlikely to force Israel into a complete reconsideration of its economic ties to China.

Mr. Tuvia Gering , Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 24.08.2020
China Iran
Douglas MacGregor

Douglas MacGregor is a friend

Antisemitism accusations against Dr Douglas MacGregor are deeply upsetting.

Major General (res.) Gershon Hacohen , Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 19.08.2020
anti-Semitism
Israel-UAE-Mediterranean-Puzzle-Illustration

UAE treaty part of a much bigger game

Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 16.08.2020
UAE-Israel Peace Plan
UAE-Israel flags Judea and Samaria Illustration

Tempered Euphoria on the UAE-Israel Agreement

The deal is a clear win for Israel, the UAE and the US. Netanyahu gets a face-saving, significant reward for not doing something (annexation) he was not going to be able to do anyway in the current political/diplomatic context.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 15.08.2020
UAE-Israel Peace Plan
Port Said, Egypt

Unequivocal Diplomatic Support for the EEZ Agreement between Greece and Egypt

Israel should act to ensure that the Greek-Egyptian EEZ delimitation map is globally endorsed, as opposed to the Turkish-GNA alternative, and work in the American arena to curb Erdogan’s ambitions.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 13.08.2020
Egypt greece
Israel flag strategy and Nasrallah

Israel Needs to Strike Hezbollah to Ensure its Freedom of Action

A limited Israeli military operation in Lebanon would strengthen Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah. It also would deepen Iran's sense of defeat and demonstrate Israel's determination to check Iran's malign activity.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 13.08.2020
Hezbollah Lebanon
Lebanon flag broken illustration

Lebanon: The Tragic Story of the Arab World

Lebanon is a failed state, and its misfortunes are characteristic of a broader regional malaise.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 12.08.2020
Lebanon
Hezbollah equipment and Lebanon flag illustration

Lebanon’s economic ship is sinking, taking Hezbollah with it

The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country's banking system.

Dr. Udi Levi
Policy Papers 02.08.2020
Hezbollah Lebanon Middle Eastern economy
Eastern Mediterranean Greece and Israel Flags Illustration

Israel, Greece, and the Turkish Challenge: Acute Testing Lies Ahead

Israel is unable to get directly involved in eastern Mediterranean hostilities, should they erupt. But it can and should cooperate closely with Greece in intelligence matters and arms acquisition and coordinate political action with Greece in Washington. The US stance largely will determine the practical scope of Erdogan’s ambitions.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 02.08.2020
Turkey
Assad and Putin middle east illustration

The Tensions between Assad and Iran Present an Opportunity in Syria

Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran's presence in Syria.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Dr. Aiman Mansour , Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 26.07.2020
Iran Syria
India Israel Arms Trade Illustration

The Future of India-Israel Arms Trade

Israel’s state-of-the-art weapon systems and technological expertise are a mainstay of India’s drive for a self-reliant defense industry.

Dr. Alvite Ningthoujam
Policy Papers 21.07.2020
India Israel India Relations
Turkey in Yemen Illustration

Is Yemen Turkey’s Next Stop after Libya?

Ankara's military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 20.07.2020
Middle East Turkey
Hisham al-Hashimi and Iraq flag illustration

The Assassination of Hisham al-Hashimi: A Warning from Iraqi Shia Militias

Killing of prominent adviser shows the determination of Iranian-backed Shia militias to resist any attempt to curtail their powers and freedom of action.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 20.07.2020
Iraq

Shortening mandatory service is a danger to Israel

Soldiers in uniform for less time means the army has less time to train them and can make use of their skills for a shorter period. In addition, there is no benefit in releasing potential young workers early at a time of rife unemployment.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 14.07.2020
IDF Iran
Jordan Valley Israel Flag Illustration

Security Considerations and National Unity Require Jordan Valley Sovereignty

The American peace plan provides a historic opportunity to break the futile paradigm based on the 1967 lines and ensure Israeli national security for the long term. In terms of security – protecting Israel, stabilizing Jordan, and preventing a terrorist takeover of a future Palestinian entity – and given the supreme importance of national cohesion, it is imperative to focus on the Jordan Valley and the Jerusalem envelope.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 12.07.2020
Israel Sovereignty Israeli Palestinian Conflict Jordan Valley
Erdogan

Erdogan’s Arc of Destabilization

From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-NATO’ orientation that Turkey’s Western apologists like to recall.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.07.2020
Middle East Turkey
Jordan Valley and the Flag of Israel

Apply Sovereignty to the Jordan Valley, Now

The Valley is Israel's only defensible eastern border and Israel's sovereignty there is vital for the demilitarization of a future Palestinian state

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 29.06.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict Jordan Valley
covid and missile illustration

On Viruses and Missiles

The lesson learned from the current crisis is that restrictions imposed to protect the public are futile unless the public is convinced that it is at risk. To this end, government must communicate to the public with clear-cut data and logical arguments.

Dr. Uzi Rubin
Policy Papers 21.06.2020
Coronavirus Israel Defence Policy
Khamenei and Jerusalem

Qods Day Advances Iran’s Regional Aspirations

“Qods Day” reflects Tehran's determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 21.06.2020
Iran israeli-iranian relations Jerusalem
Libya Turkey flags illustration on Tripoli Background

Washington needs a policy in Libya as Turkey’s presence grows

A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 18.06.2020
Libya Turkey

Reject Iran’s Request for an IMF Loan

Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 17.06.2020
Coronavirus Iran Middle Eastern economy
syria, russia, iran flags and deraa

Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province

A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.06.2020
Iran Russia
assad and syria illustration

Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels

Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.06.2020
Middle Eastern economy Syria
lebanon economy illustration

Lebanon’s Economic Collapse: Consequences for Israel

Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community's situation. It might favor Hizballah.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 04.06.2020
Lebanon Middle Eastern economy
Computer Security

Cyber-Warfare between Iran and Israel

The recent reciprocal cyber-attacks attributed to Israel and Iran were meant to set red lines on the non-kinetic dimension of war.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 03.06.2020
cyber Iran israeli-iranian relations
Trump With Israel and Palestine flag

Phased Territorial Implementation of the Trump Peace Plan

The Trump Plan is the most realistic route for progress towards the goal of “two states for two peoples.” Therefore, the Israeli national unity government should embrace the Trump plan in its entirety, including negotiations towards establishment of a Palestinian state, and at the same time act (in the first stage) to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and strategically significant areas in the Jerusalem envelope, such as Maaleh Adumim and Gush Etzion. An Israeli consensus exists regarding these areas.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 31.05.2020
Trump Plan
Germany-ban-on-Hezbollah

The Outlawing of Hezbollah in Germany

Germany's decision is an important step in the international effort against Hezbollah. It will hamper the criminal network and terrorist activities of Hezbollah in Europe and even in Lebanon. Hezbollah should be outlawed across Europe.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 25.05.2020
Germany Hezbollah
Libyan Civil war

The Struggle for the Mediterranean: The EMGF Stake in the Libyan Civil War

Dramatic gains on the battlefield by the forces loyal to the Turkish-backed "Government of National Accord" in western Libya have given Erdogan a victory, which may endanger the future of the eastern Mediterranean. Italy, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Israel must coordinate their policies in response. A tripartite Greek-Cypriot-Israeli summit should be held urgently to annul the GNA-Libyan EEZ agreement, to present an alternative map of the Mediterranean, and to encourage a robust reaction of the EU. The US must be persuaded to pressure Turkey revoke the EEZ MoU (while still letting Erdogan take pride in saving the GNA from

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 24.05.2020
Libya
Iran flag on west bank background

Is Iran Gaining a Foothold in the West Bank?

A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 19.05.2020
Iran West Bank
usa and israel flags in jerusalem

Build Jerusalem

US recognition of the eternal city as Israel’s capital and the Trump peace plan pave the way forward.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 13.05.2020
Jerusalem US Israel Relations
covid-middle-east

Coronavirus has not changed the Middle East

Conflicts persist, and the revisionist powers continue their disruptive behavior. This includes Iranian subversion and acceleration of its nuclear project, as well as Turkey’s expansionism in Syria.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 10.05.2020
Coronavirus
Relationship between the Israel and the Syria. Two flags of countries on background. 3D rendered illustration.

Israel’s strategy in Syria is less coherent than it seems

There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 10.05.2020
Syria
Lebanon Demonstration

Coronavirus has caused protests in Lebanon to reignite

The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 01.05.2020
Coronavirus Lebanon
USA ISRAEL PA FLAGS

Implementing Elements of the Trump Plan: An Opportunity to Give New Life to the Two-State Option

Rejection of the Trump plan outright, denunciation of any steps towards its implementation, and adherence to the failed Oslo-era paradigm for peace – is certain to condemn all sides to continued conflict.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 30.04.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict Trump Plan
Benjamin Netanyahu and the Jordan River Plan

Netanyahu’s Annexation Plan Can’t Be Stopped

Annexation of the Jordan Valley is a long-standing Israeli objective, going back to Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 30.04.2020
Jordan Valley
Iran Missile Space (Illustration)

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Goes to Space

Now that IRGC leadership in Iran's space effort is out in the open, it can be expected that its homemade, long-range rockets with a global reach will be revealed soon, as well.

Dr. Uzi Rubin
Policy Papers 29.04.2020
Iran
Human Figures Circle Holding Hands Around Coronavirus On Red Bac

Corona Strengthens Nationalism

The virus crisis will lead to protectionism, skepticism of international institutions, narrow immigration policies, and other signposts of nationalism; thereby rolling-back policies that characterized the liberal and globalist democratic order.

Dr. Yagil Henkin
Policy Papers 22.04.2020
Coronavirus
Coronavirus In Syria. Novel Coronavirus 2019-ncov, Arabic Woman

ISIS and Coronavirus: Will Terrorists Exploit COVID-19?

The ‘ghost caliphate’ – Sunni Arab insurgency – is likely to persist in the remote, poor and sparsely governed areas of Syria and Iraq.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 19.04.2020
Coronavirus Terrorism
Covid-19 Coronavirus Epidemic In Iran. Silhouette Of Man In Medi

Iran keeps up its malign behavior, pandemic notwithstanding

In the meantime, it doesn’t seem as though Iran – the driving force behind most of the friction in the Middle East – is changing its plans or abandoning its dreams, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 19.04.2020
Coronavirus
Judge In Gloves To Protect From Coronavirus Writing On Paper

Israeli Decision-Making During the COVID-19 Crisis

There are four factors to consider when weighing action against the coronavirus: public health, preservation of the economy, civil rights, and the international and regional context. National decision-making must take all four of these elements into account, with emphases shifting over the course of time as circumstances change.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 19.04.2020
Coronavirus
Portrait Of A White Man In A Medical Mask On The Background Of T

Israel’s Response to Covid-19: Strengths, Weaknesses and Opportunities

Overall, Israeli society has remained resilient in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, and there are reasons to rate highly key aspects of the government’s response.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 10.04.2020
Coronavirus
-novel_coronavirus_sars-cov-2

Will Coronavirus be a Moderating Factor in the Middle East?

The assumption that the virus will curb Middle East conflicts does not stand the test of reality. Israel must remain on high security alert.

Ms. Micky Aharonson , Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 07.04.2020
Coronavirus Middle East
Facial Recognition And Search And Surveillance Of A Person In Th

On Technological Surveillance in the Fight against Coronavirus

The use of special measures to stop the virus is necessary, even though this impinges on individual privacy rights, if the data is deleted after a short time.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 06.04.2020
Coronavirus
Novel Coronavirus Disease Named 2019-ncov With Iran Flag Closeup

Coronavirus and the Campaign against Iran

There may be a change in Iranian policy towards the US due to Iran’s economic and coronavirus difficulties.

Dr. Udi Levi
Policy Papers 06.04.2020
Coronavirus Iran
Female Doctor Or Nurse In Gloves Holding Syringe For Vaccination

Lessons to be Learned: Israel’s Handling of the Coronavirus Crisis

Even amidst the ongoing crisis, it is critical to adjust government decision-making structures and operational management procedures to “emergency” mode, in order to ensure optimal outcome.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Giora Eiland
Policy Papers 05.04.2020
Coronavirus
cjtf_american_and_french_soldiers

Assessing the US strategy in Iraq

Only an integrated political, military and economic strategy targeting the Iranian system in all its aspects, with a long-term commitment to local allies and the mission, can succeed.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.04.2020
Iraq US Middle East Policy

Corona’s Impact on Israeli National Security

Israeli national security is unquestionably weakened by the corona pandemic. Many IDF units are suffering from a shortage of manpower. And the assertion that preoccupation with corona will temper the behavior of Israel's enemies is wishful and mistaken thinking.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 22.03.2020
Coronavirus National security
Coronavirus Stock Market Crash Turmoil COVID-19 Outbreak Pandemi

The Impact of Corona on the World Economy

The spread of so lethal a virus on so wide a scale in so globalized an economy is unprecedented. Its impact is expected to be more ruinous than that of the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 22.03.2020
Coronavirus

Social and Economic Reslience in a Crisis Situation: Strategic Implications

The resilence of Israeli society at a time of national emergency (the corona pandemic) has direct strategic and security implications. Despite the huge budgetary challenge, it is vital to maintain investment in advanced IDF military capabilities, because a nuclear confrontation with Iran is still possible.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.03.2020
Coronavirus
iran flag

Mullahs & COVID-19: Iran’s failing response reflects regime’s priorities

The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 20.03.2020
Iran
netanyahu_addresses_congress

What we know about Iran five years after Netanyahu’s speech to Congress

We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 11.03.2020
Iran
map_of_idlib_ceasefire_march_2020

Idlib, the next phase of the Turkish-Syrian conflict

Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 11.03.2020
Russia Syria
DOHA, QATAR - JULY 5, 2017: An attack on the value of the Qatar

Qatari Cash for Hamas Will Backfire on Israel

What Happens When Hezbollah Seeks a Similar Arrangement of Quiet for Cash?

Dr. Udi Levi
Policy Papers 05.03.2020
Gaza Hamas
נתניהו בעצרת בחירות

Israel’s New Diplomatic Moment

Trump’s peace plan calls attention to the fact that the Arab bloc that championed the Palestinian cause has collapsed.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.03.2020
Israeli elections Israeli Palestinian Conflict
Iranian Currency Closeup

How Iran funds Palestinian Islamic Jihad

PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 02.03.2020
Iran
Armed Terrorist Group Terrorism People Crowd Vector Illustration

After Soleimani: Iran Resumes Proxy Warfare Against the US

Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 21.02.2020
Iran

Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest

Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 21.02.2020
Iran Syria
A hand with a drawn Russia flag holds a ball with a drawn Syria flag, a sign of influence, pressure or conservation and protection. Horizontal frame

Do Syria-Turkey clashes presage a wider confrontation in the Middle East?

Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.02.2020
Russia Syria
president_trump_meets_with_israeli_prime_minister_benjamin_netanyahu_49451988208

The “Deal of the Century” and Israel’s European Challenge

Europe ought to press the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel for a demilitarized state on a territory similar in size to the pre-1967 West Bank and Gaza Strip and whose economy will be rebuilt and boosted by a $50 billion investment.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 06.02.2020
Europe Israeli Palestinian Conflict
president_trump_unveils_a_plan_for_a_comprehensive_peace_agreement_between_israel_and_the_pal

15 reasons to embrace the Trump Plan

Israel should act to implement the Trump Plan and reap its early rewards, because it transforms the Mideast peace paradigm. Most importantly, the plan reflects, and can serve as a platform for, Israeli consensus on the Palestinian issue.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 31.01.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict US Middle East Policy
President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Mike Pence participate in an expanded bilateral meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Monday, Jan. 27, 2020, in the Oval Office of the White House. (Official White House Photo by D. Myles Cullen)

Breaking the ‘everybody knows paradigm’

Even if the Palestinians reject Trump's peace plan, it still serves their long-term interests. False, undeliverable expectations – based on the assumption that "everybody knows" what Israel will be forced to concede – eventually need to give way to a more realistic paradigm, which in turn may lead to a better life for both sides.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 31.01.2020
Israeli Palestinian Conflict US Middle East Policy
secretary_pompeo_meets_with_world_leaders_in_berlin_germany_49408271243

The Struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean: Israel’s Role following the Berlin Summit on Libya

Everything short of a military confrontation needs to be done, though, to deter Erdogan from establishing a barrier diagonally across the Mediterranean, barring Cyprus, Egypt and Israel from connecting their gas infrastructure to Greece and hence to Europe.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 27.01.2020
Eastern Mediterranean
3D Jordan map flag Vector illustration Eps 10.

Jordan will not impede the US peace plan

It is convenient for Amman to have Israel retain security control over the Jordan Valley. And this is a rare opportunity to advance and potentially realize Israel's security needs for a cemented border in the east with the support of the world's top superpower.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 27.01.2020
Jordan
Glass ballot box on Lebanon flag background 3d illustration

Hezbollah-dominated government emerges in Lebanon

The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 27.01.2020
Lebanon
eastmed_project_map

Israel-Greece-Cyprus take on Turkey in the Mediterranean

Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 24.01.2020
Eastern Mediterranean Energy

No to the planned Palestinian elections

Jerusalem is not the place to hold elections for a foreign entity.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 22.01.2020
Palestinian Authority
vladimir_putin_in_syria_2020-01-07_22

Putin’s surprise visit to Syria

Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.

Ms. Micky Aharonson , Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 22.01.2020
Russia Syria
us_capitol_building_at_night_jan_2006

Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?

The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 13.01.2020
Syria US Middle East Policy
natanz_nuclear

After Soleimani: Maintain the Pressure on Iran’s Nuclear Project

A firm stand at this critical juncture may prove to be of use as part of the effort to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table on terms more acceptable to the US and to Trump's regional allies, including Israel.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 10.01.2020
Iran
_rocket_hits_fuel_bladder_al_asad_feb_20_2005

A large amount of noise and smoke

Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 10.01.2020
Iran
funeral_of_qasem_soleimani_tehran_2_mehr_016

More pressure on Iran still needed

Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 10.01.2020
Iran
patrouille_turque_kobane_5_novembre_2019

The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria

New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.01.2020
Syria
demonstrations_in_iran_over_the_death_of_qasem_soleimani

Iran lacks good options

What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 04.01.2020
US - Iran Relations
השבוע נערך תרגיל רחב היקף של מפקדת חטיבת השריון “סער מגולן”, בשילוב כוחות פלס”ר החטיבה ברמת הגולן. בתמונות נראים לוחמי פלס”ר החטיבה מפלסים את הדרך לכוח המשוריין...............................צילום: אביר סולטן, דובר צה”ל.

The Reemergence of Gray-Zone Warfare in Modern Conflicts

Israel’s Struggle against Hamas’s Indirect Approach

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 01.01.2020
Hamas
Iran US showdown and middle east clash as a USA or United States crisis in the Persian gulf concept as an American and Iranian security problem due to economic sanctions and nuclear deal as a 3D illustration.

US-Iran Showdown Begins in Iraq

Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 31.12.2019
US - Iran Relations
Jerusalem, Israel - May 25, 2017: Tourist looks in binoculars tower viewer at the Jerusalem Old City view. Mount of Olives is a famous Holy Land place and it has a fantastic view to the Old Jerusalem

Forecasting the Mideast in 2020

Israel must be ready to tackle Iran militarily on its own and fight a pre-emptive war with Hizballah.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 22.12.2019
Forecast 2020
Russia detailed map highlighted on blue rounded World Map. Map of Russia in circle.

The Russian Role in World Affairs: A View from Israel

It would undoubtedly serve Israel's interest for Russia to draw closer to the US on a wide range of issues, and above all, on Iran.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 16.12.2019
Russia
National flags of the Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, UAE,Bahrain

The Gulf: Signs of a Partial Thaw in the Intra-Sunni Cold War?

Israel needs to make clear to Washington the harm done in the region, and the potential for more harm, by the perception of American policy disarray, weakness and withdrawal.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 15.12.2019
Arab Gulf states
flickr_-_israel_defense_forces_-_20_years_of_cooperation_with_the_chinese_navy_2

Israel Shouldn’t Draw Fixed Lines Between Itself and China

The Jewish state’s relationship with the U.S. is stronger for resting on an informal basis; replacing it with a formal alliance would do no good and only anger the world’s other major power.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.12.2019
China-Israel Relations US Israel Relations
hayat_tahrir_al-sham_flag

The Battle for Northwestern Syria: Better Sooner than Later

It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran's military entrenchment.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 11.12.2019
Syria
Vector map of Turkey country colored by national flag

Erdogan’s Dangerous Diagonal: What can be Done to Counter Turkey’s EEZ claims?

Israel needs enhanced naval capability for the protection of its own EEZ and for the creation of a proper balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 09.12.2019
Middle Eastern economy Turkey
Iran US middle east clash as a USA or United States crisis in the Persian gulf concept as an American and Iranian security problem due to economic sanctions and nuclear deal dispute in a 3D illustration style.

American Sanctions and Military Action against Iran

A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.

Dr. Udi Levi
Policy Papers 02.12.2019
Iran US - Iran Relations
A figure of a Shooting Man with mountains as abackdrop

The Fighting Continues in Northern Syria

The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
02.12.2019
Kurds Syria
Arab Businessman Stand On Top Of Mountain With Telescope Looking For Success, Opportunities, Business Vision Concept Flat Vector Illustration

Through a Different Lens: The Mideast as Seen from Doha

At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad's rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 26.11.2019
Middle Eastern economy
2019_iranian_protests_1

Protests in Iran and Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign

America must provide Iranian demonstrators with access to the Internet to bolster the protests.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 25.11.2019
Iran US - Iran Relations
News Concept: Israel Flag Button On Russia Flag Button 3d illustration on white background

Russia-Israel Relations: Expectations and Reality

Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 25.11.2019
Israel - Russia relations
Fuel pump nozzle in hand with flag on background - Syria

Making the Best of US Withdrawal from Syria

Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 24.11.2019
Iran Syria
anatot-en

Truth-telling to advance peace

By changing the discourse about settlements, the Trump administration is laying the groundwork for realistic negotiation. Even if you think that Israeli settlement should be rolled-back in the context of a sensible peace arrangement, applying the demonizing epithet “illegal” makes for a destructive narrative that distances, not advances, peace.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 24.11.2019
US Middle East Policy
vladimir_putin_at_the_funeral_of_jacques_chirac_2019-09-30_9

Israel, Europe and Russia: A New Paradigm?

Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 19.11.2019
Israel - Russia relations Israel-Europe relations
flags_of_turkey_and_rojava

Northern Syria and Israel

Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 07.11.2019
Syria
Iran hand fist propaganda poster fight and protest independence struggle rebellion show symbolic strength vector

Revolt Against Iran’s ‘System’ in Iraq and Lebanon

Will the people succeed in undermining the Iranian plan to spread power across the region?

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.11.2019
Iran
Iran oil industry concept, industrial illustration. Fluttering Iran flag and oil wells on the blue and yellow sunset sky background - 3D illustration

Escalation with Iran and its satellites is not an empty threat

If it weren't for the Iranian regime's distress, it might decide to tread water until US President Trump was out of office. But its resources are limited, and the possibility that the ayatollahs might attack Israel out of desperation is very real.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 04.11.2019
Iran
flickr_-_israel_defense_forces_-_paratroopers_brigade_recon

Prepare for war, the right way

The IDF must return to the fundamentals: ground maneuver to achieve “hachra’a” – decisive outcomes.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
IDF National security
claimed_and_de_facto_territory_of_rojava

Rojava Sundown – A Retrospective

Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Syria
kurds

No Reason for Kurdish Surprise

Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”

Mr. Lazar Berman
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Kurds Syria
Dec, 2017: Donald Trump portrait on a blue background. Vector illustration of the President of United States Donald Trump

Beyond the Chorus of Indignation

Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Syria US Middle East Policy
Bangkok, Thailand - December 21, 2017: A Waxwork Of Vladimir Put

Putin Is the New King of Syria

The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Russia Syria
baris_pinari_harekati_sonrasi_resulayn_serekani_bombalaniyor

Understanding the Dynamics behind Turkey’s ‘Operation Peace Spring”

On "Kurdophobia," Refugees and Reviving the National Pact Borders.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 16.10.2019
Syria Turkey
riseup4rojava_berlin_2019-10-10_07

Beyond Outrage

What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 16.10.2019
Kurds Syria
the-turkish-invasion-of-northeast-syria

The Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria

While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.10.2019
Syria Turkey
Chonburi, Thailand - February 17, 2018: Us Marine In Jungle Camo

The lessons of betrayal in northern Syria

The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.10.2019
Syria
hezbollah

Iran creating more Hezbollahs across the Middle East

Escalating tensions with Iran should be a warning that Tehran’s strategy of training and arming proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East is not being countered aggressively enough.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 07.10.2019
Hezbollah Iran
ali_khamenei_receives_xi_jinping_in_his_house_3

Can a Chinese-Iranian Deal be Averted?

Chinese investment in Iran would help Tehran withstand US economic pressures, and exacerbate the Western crisis with Iran

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 07.10.2019
China Iran

Political instability equals strategic danger

Israel’s strategic situation doesn’t brook inertia.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 07.10.2019
Israeli elections National security
Israel flag with Pakistan flag, 3D rendering

Pakistan and Israel: Much Ado About Nothing?

Both Pakistani and Israeli concerns currently militate against any imminent warming of ties.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 07.10.2019
Pakistan
funeral_of_mohsen_hojaji_in_tehran_09

Exposing Hezbollah’s lies

Israel successfully thwarted Hezbollah’s and Iran’s attempts to launch suicide drones from the Syrian village of Aqraba, located some 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from Israel’s border, at vital targets inside the country on Aug. 24. And yet, the transnational Shiite composition of the terrorist squad behind the attempt could portend what we might expect in

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 25.09.2019
Hezbollah
Qatar and Turkey puzzles from flags 3D rendering isolated on white background

Islamist Archipelago: The Turkey-Qatar Nexus

The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 22.09.2019
Qatar Turkey
Two hands stretch towards each other against the background. Hands people against the backdrop flags USA and Iran

How Israel Will Prevent Trump Appeasing Iran

Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 19.09.2019
Iran US - Iran Relations
2000px-proposed_september_2019_israeli_annexation_of_jordan_valley-svg

Annex the Jordan Valley

A selective settlement policy focusing on areas within the Israeli consensus, including Ma’aleh Adumim and the Jordan Valley, can be pursued with little foreign interference.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 16.09.2019
Jordan
-israel_pakistan_locator2-svg

Israel Would Welcome Ties With Pakistan. Should India Worry?

The recurrent debate about Israel in Pakistan reflects the former’s improved international standing. The Muslim giant could become the next success in Israel’s growing acceptance around the world

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 09.09.2019
Foreign Policy
Israel Iran financial, diplomatic crisis concept. vector illustration.

The Iran-Israel War Is Here

More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 30.08.2019
Iran
Vector Image - USA and Israel Flags in puzzle isolated on white background.

Political Independence as a Strategic Asset

Overlooked in the controversy regarding Trump, Omar and Tlaib, and Israel: The imperative of maintaining Israel’s sovereign decision-making.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 28.08.2019
US Israel Relations
military jet plane with missile weapon flying against sunset sky use for world battle and political conflict in middle east

When you leave the Middle East, do it with a big bang

American withdrawal from the Middle East must be accompanied by steps that reduce the general impression of a weak US going home in defeat. President Trump should bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 27.08.2019
US Middle East Policy
people crowd pie chart group graphic sampling statistics vector

On Demography and Economic Development in Jerusalem

The recent State Comptroller’s report on Jerusalem shows continuing Jewish emigration from the city. Israel must act swiftly to reverse this trend.

Dr. David Koren
Policy Papers 17.08.2019
East Jerusalem Jerusalem

A Stronger Mediterranean Partnership: Why More Than Gas is at Stake

Israel, Egypt, Greece and Cyprus must encourage the US to assert a higher military and diplomatic profile as a counterweight to Turkish pressures, Russian and Iranian ambitions, and Chinese inroads.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 13.08.2019
Eastern Mediterranean
armored_corps_operate_near_the_gaza_border_14569836159

A Large-Scale Ground Offensive against Hamas is Inevitable

Neglecting IDF ground maneuver capabilities is a dangerous gamble.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 09.08.2019
Hamas
America centric world map with magnified Jordan map. Green polygonal world map.

Jordan Plays the Field

Jordan and other conservative Arab states are struggling with a difficult superpower ally and facing threats of regional escalation.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 08.08.2019
Jordan
ISTANBUL TURKEY - JUNE 8 2016: The Navy patrol ship Tekirda sailing along the Bosphorus and the landmark Maiden's Tower in Uskudar. The Turkish ship is escorting the larger Russian frigate Admiral Grigorovich which can be seen to the left

Turkey Sets Course against the West in the Mediterranean

Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 07.08.2019
Turkey

Beware Precipitous Talks with Iran

Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign must not be curtailed before Iran’s leaders truly have no choice but to capitulate to Western demands.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 07.08.2019
Iran US - Iran Relations
flickr_-_government_press_office_gpo_-_pm_yitzhak_rabin_and_king_hussein_shaking_hands

The Israel-Jordan Treaty at 25

It is a crucial accord, but needs attention and maintenance.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 26.07.2019
Israel-Jordan relations
ministry_of_foreign_affairs_building_in_tehran

Expose the Misdeeds of Iran’s Foreign Ministry

It is complicit in Hizballah’s terrorism and subversion, in Europe and the US.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 26.07.2019
Iran
Ivanovsk, Russia - February 04, 2019: Palestine on the map of the world

Russia hampering Israel-Arab ties

Outwardly, Russia is loyal to the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the reason for Middle East unrest. This approach raises the bar on Palestinian demands and makes normal life in the region less likely.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 25.07.2019
Israeli Palestinian Conflict Russia
syrian map

The Syrian Sideshow

With the regional focus elsewhere, violence in Syria grinds on. International backers of the various enclaves have a greater say in the direction of events than do their Syrian clients.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.07.2019
Syria
Istanbul, Turkey - Nov 03, 2018: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a meeting with President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko

Erdoğan is Not Invulnerable

The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan's conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.07.2019
Turkey
Business handshake on the background of two flags. Men handshake on the background of the United States of America and Israel flag. Support concept

A US-Israeli Defense Treaty? A Noble Idea, But Neither Desirable nor Practical

The need to assign American soldiers to fight with Israel might undermine Israel's popularity in the US and constrain its freedom of action.

Professor Efraim Inbar , Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 25.06.2019
US Israel Relations
Waving Flag of Jerusalem, with beautiful satin background

Make Jerusalem a priority

Even an interim Israeli government can build in Jerusalem, counter the intrusions of foreign agents, and invest in all sectors of Israel’s national capital.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 20.06.2019
Jerusalem

The Greatest Necessity: National Cohesion

Israel’s government must nurture a spirit of unity and national purpose by building a policy consensus as broad as possible. This is necessary both in preparation for likely combat operations against Iran and its proxies, and in order to respond wisely to the American peace plan and to intelligently manage conflict with the Palestinians.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 13.06.2019
National security

Towards an Eastern Mediterranean Security Alliance

Beyond Elounda, Beersheba, Cairo and Jerusalem.
The emerging informal alliance in the eastern Mediterranean is becoming increasingly significant. Egypt’s role, Erdogan's ambitions, energy resources, joint military exercises and coordinated emergency responses contribute to the alliance.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 10.06.2019
Eastern Mediterranean
demonstrations_and_protests_against_united_states_recognition_of_jerusalem_in_tehran

Crisis between Iran and the US: Implications for Israel

Israel needs to be prepared for potentially dramatic consequences, including rapid deterioration towards confrontation on all Israel’s borders. Resilience and readiness to act can serve to deter provocations by Iran’s proxies. Ultimately, only a credible military threat from Israel will indicate to friend and foe alike that in a showdown, Iran will be forced to back down.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 05.06.2019
US - Iran Relations
נשיא איראן ובשאר אסאד

Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria

Iran is continually expanding its military, economic and political presence in Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s February 25 visit to Iran was an important marker in these efforts. Assad met with Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, who labeled him the “hero of the Arab world.” The presence of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 27.05.2019
Iran Syria
israeli_urban_combat

No Illusions, No Despair

The new JISS national security plan says avoid risky diplomatic escapades and prepare for war.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 24.05.2019
IDF Israel Defence Policy
A row of intercontinental ballistic missiles launching in a desert on a blue sky backgrund - 3D render

Iranian Missiles in the Iraqi Desert

In the remote deserts of western Iraq, Iran’s servants are busily at work preparing a new front against Israel.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 20.05.2019
Iran

Iran’s grip on Gaza is Israel’s nightmare

The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.05.2019
Gaza Hamas Iran

Is Egypt Coming Back?

Egypt may be beginning to emerge from its self-imposed strategic seclusion.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 09.05.2019
Egypt
mahmoud_abbas

Abbas’s Waterloo

He has cornered himself into a situation where he has zero credibility and zero leverage on Israel, the US, the international community, and even the Sunni Arab world.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 03.05.2019
Palestinian Authority
Fat piggy bank with fag of palestinian territory and money isolated on white. 3D illustration

No Reason to Fear PA Economic Collapse

As dysfunctional as the Palestinian national movement has become, it has excelled in perpetuating the pork barrel born in Oslo.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 03.05.2019
Palestinian Authority
Flags of Venezuela, Russia and the USA on the background texture peeling paint with a crack. Horizontal frame

Venezuela: A Test Case for Russia and the US

Venezuela has become flash point between Russia and the US. The way in which America responds to Russian conduct in its backyard will influence Russia's international conduct in the future.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 02.05.2019
Russia US - Russia Relations
Bahrain protests and uprising in March 2011 during arab spring

Arab Spring: The Second Coming?

Events in Sudan and Libya suggest that the core dynamic in the Arab world has not changed: authoritarian military regimes and political Islam remain the key players, popular sovereignty remains a distant aspiration

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 01.05.2019
The Arab World

Will Iran Retaliate against the US for Designating the IRGC as a Terrorist Organization?

Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 01.05.2019
Iran
Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis meets with Libya’s Prime Minister Fayez Serraj Nov. 20, 2017, at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. (DOD photo by Air Force Tech. Sgt. Brigitte N. Brantley)

Generals vs. Islamists in Libya

Regional rivals clash via proxies in Tripoli fight.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 28.04.2019
Libya

How to handle Gaza

The government should act with magnanimity towards the civilian population in Gaza while preparing the IDF for intensive warfare against Hamas.

Major General (res.) Yair Golan
Policy Papers 18.04.2019
Gaza
reuven_rivlin_hosting_the_egyptian_ambassador_to_israel_at_a_festive_occasion_marking_the_40th_anniversary

Egyptian mediation in Gaza is a strategic asset by its own right

It is in Israel's interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of "conflict management" as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas' pretensions of Jihad.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 18.04.2019
Egypt Gaza Hamas
elections_in_israel_

Israel’s Election Result Shows Broad Consensus on Diplomatic and Defense Issues

As ugly as the 2019 campaign may have been, it is simply wrong to portray Israel as a deeply divided nation on these matters.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 18.04.2019
Israeli elections

Iran Strengthens its Land Route to Damascus

The Iranian “corridor” is a central project for the mullahs in Iraq and Syria, involving a highway which would connect Tehran with Damascus.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 16.04.2019
Iran
CAIRO - JUNE 30: Unidentified anti Muslim Brotherhood/Morsi protesters in Tahrir Square shout slogans calling for Morsi's resignation on June 30 2013 in Cairo Egypt.

The Second Wave?

Much ink has been and is being spilt regarding whether or not current developments in Algeria and Sudan – the second and third most populous Arab states after Egypt – constitute the Second Wave of the “Arab Spring”. But what is clear is that the second and succeeding waves of Arab Uprisings will not look the same as that of 2011.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 16.04.2019
The Arab World
Jared Kushner

Will Trump’s ‘deal of the century’ lead to change?

The guaranteed failure of the “deal of the century” is an opportunity for Israel to open the Americans’ eyes to the harsh and complicated reality in our region and lead them to support the strategy of managing the conflict and wait for better times.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 10.04.2019
Israeli Palestinian Conflict US Middle East Policy
A view of the nature on the Golan Heights and mountain Hermon in Israel.

Trump’s law of diminishing returns

Trump’s landmark Golan decision asserts the law of diminishing returns: Arabs who refuse to make peace with Israel lose rights and assets as time goes forward. Mahmoud Abbas: Take notice.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 01.04.2019
Golan Heights US Middle East Policy

Hamas misread the map

The IDF's response will be harsher than usual, not because Israelis in the center are more valued than those in the periphery but because of the emerging need to show Hamas that it has grossly misjudged.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 26.03.2019
Gaza Hamas

Israel’s European Dilemma

Israel should leverage its economic power and take advantage of the EU’s inner divisions, but it would not benefit from a divided Europe ruled by economic nationalists and anti-globalists aligned with Russia. To defend its national interests, Israel must develop ties with “rebellious” European governments, but only as a divide-and-rule tactic meant to break the Brussels consensus, not as a bond with forces that threaten to undermine free trade and the Atlantic alliance.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 24.03.2019
Israel-Europe relations
A flash of lightning seems to split an European flag into two parts.

European Appeasement of Iran Endangers National Security in Europe

The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 24.03.2019
EU Iran

Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars

The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.03.2019
Syria

The Fall of the Caliphate

No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 12.03.2019
Syria

Protect and preserve Area C

Israel must administer Area C effectively and with much more authority, whether it wishes to either hold the territory as an effective card for future bargaining or it intends to annex the lands to Israel.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 11.03.2019
Israeli Palestinian Conflict
vladimir_putin_and_ali_khamenei_2018

Iranian-Russian Cooperation in Yemen

The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country's civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.

Ms. Micky Aharonson , Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 01.03.2019
Iran Russia

Fear not the Trump plan

It is inconceivable that the Trump plan will parrot the stale Clinton/Obama parameters of yesteryear or force any “peace paradigm” on Israel.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 01.03.2019
peace process US Middle East Policy
Embassy Dedication Ceremony

Trump’s Plan is Opportunity to Change Paradigm

Any government elected in Israel will undoubtedly agree to discuss the plan with the Americans.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 01.03.2019
peace process US Middle East Policy

Zarif defeated at home

The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn't come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 28.02.2019
Iran
ministry_of_foreign_affairs

Memo to the new Israeli Foreign Minister

Minister Yisrael Katz should restore and reinvigorate the Israeli foreign service. Israel’s many recent diplomatic breakthroughs require systemic and sustained follow-up by a strong and committed cadre of professionals.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.02.2019
Foreign Policy

Fight foreign subversion in eastern Jerusalem

Assaults on Israeli sovereignty must be met by an Israeli counter-assault.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 15.02.2019
East Jerusalem

Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold

Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 13.02.2019
Syria

Iranian Economic Failure Spoils 40th Anniversary Celebrations

The Iranian media claimed that millions filled the streets on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The opposition, however says that fewer people participated. Iran's nuclear program will not protect the regime against the people's antipathy.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 13.02.2019
Iran
Syria flag

Iran’s Strategy for Control of Syria

One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 04.02.2019
Iran Syria

Lebanon’s Reaction to Operation Northern Shield

Lebanon has neither the desire nor the ability to address Hezbollah’s threat to its sovereignty. The likelihood of Lebanon suffering severe damage in a war against Israel does not change this situation.

Elisheva Simon
Policy Papers 31.01.2019
Lebanon

Moscow, the Palestinians, and the Arab Spring that Never Was

Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 30.01.2019
Israeli Palestinian Conflict Russia
flag_of_idf_chief_of_staff-svg

Challenges of the new IDF chief of staff

Clear understandings between the political and military echelons are essential in employment of military force and readiness for the next war.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 17.01.2019
IDF

Iran’s Land Route: A Strategic Threat

Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 02.01.2019
Iran

Israel’s New Adversary: Iran’s Shi’ite Militias and the Next War in the North

The Shi'ite militia threat isn't a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.

Mr. Lazar Berman
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Israel Defence Policy

The Withdrawal of the US from Syria in Broad Perspective

Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy

Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”

The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy

Hysterical Reactions to Recent Terrorist Attacks

The fitting Israeli response is to demonstrate resilience, and to declare that despite the terror and the pain we will remain in the land of our forefathers.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Terrorism

Saving Rojava

Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria Turkey

Betrayal on the Euphrates

Trump’s hurried exit from Syria, under pressure from a Turkish threat, will be interpreted by all sides as a strategic defeat, an abandonment and a debacle.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 23.12.2018
US Middle East Policy

Still pro-Israel?

Some hard-left Jews are out to sabotage the Birthright program. They are cutting away the limb – love for, and identification with, Israel – upon which all pro-Israel Jewish community activity must be based.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 20.12.2018
Israel-Diaspora relations

New Realities in the Eastern Mediterranean

For analytical as well as practical and even political reasons, the time has come to re-define Israel’s place in the world in terms of belonging to the “eastern Mediterranean” region, not the “Middle East.”

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 19.12.2018
Eastern Mediterranean

The Next Arena of Conflict: The Eastern Mediterranean

Iran, Turkey, Russia and other bad actors threaten Western and Israeli security in this strategic zone.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 19.12.2018
Eastern Mediterranean

How far will the IDF go in confronting Hezbollah?

Should a large operation inside Lebanon be considered after Hezbollah's tunnels are successfully neutralized?

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 18.12.2018
Lebanon

Reasserting Israel’s Deterrence in Gaza

It is necessary for Israel’s political and military leaders to readjust their conceptual framework concerning deterrence, and to engage the public in an open and effective dialogue on the deterrence equations. Also needed is a more specific and accurate capacity to strike fear into Hamas leadership by signaling both willingness and ability to destroy the assets that they value most.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.12.2018
Gaza
Matteo Salvini

Snubbing Matteo Salvini makes no sense

Despite the fascist roots of Matteo Salvini's "Liga" party, upgrading relations with the current Italian government serves the national interest because it shall help Israel export it's natural gas to Europe as well as break the European consensus on Iran and on Jerusalem's status.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 11.12.2018
Italy

Restraint and Deterrence

Israel’s security requirements on other fronts, require containment of the conflict on the southern front, while continuing to build the western Negev notwithstanding Hamas’ arson attempts.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 09.12.2018
Gaza

A new order emerges in southern Syria as Assad regains control

Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.12.2018
Iran Syria

East Mediterranean Partnership Signals an Energy Revolution

Natural gas has turned Greece from a rival to an ally just as relations between Israel and Turkey started deteriorating.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 02.12.2018
Energy

Maintain the Africa momentum

Promoting Israeli ties with African countries should be made a diplomatic priority, as this investment can and will yield ‎economic and political dividends for Israel in the global arena. ‎

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 01.12.2018
Africa

Chad: Africa returns to Israel

The historic renewal of Chad-Israel ties will benefit both nations and shows that PM Benjamin Netanyahu's foreign policy is effective.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 29.11.2018
Africa

Not Quite that Close: Israel’s Policy towards China

Israel's strategy toward China doesn't conflict with American interests; rather, it serves and reinforces them. Partnering with Beijing can help stabilize the Middle East. Partnering with Asian nations threatened by Beijing can help build a counterbalance to Chinese power.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 23.11.2018
China-Israel Relations

On Hezbollah’s Intention to Seize Control of the Economic and Monetary Systems in Lebanon

Hezbollah’s leadership has come to realize that harsher US sanctions pose a serious threat to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. It will become increasingly difficult for the regime to finance the full spectrum of its revolutionary ambitions. Hezbollah has therefore had to focus on securing its own sources of funding and providing employment for its members and followers through ever-deeper engagement in Lebanon’s economic and financial spheres of activity.

Elisheva Simon
Policy Papers 23.11.2018
Lebanon

The threat is real

The challenge now is how to make it clear to the Hamas leadership that it should not believe is own supercilious words.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 18.11.2018
Gaza Hamas

Eastern Mediterranean Summitry

The Greek-Cypriot-Egyptian summit held last month in Crete focused on energy connectivity and Turkish threats, but it also paid lip service to Egyptian pro-Palestinian messages, which is problematic.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.11.2018
Eastern Mediterranean

The Murder of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi in Raqqa

The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.11.2018
Syria

In the Middle East, you win with fear

Only a crushing and devastating blow to Hamas will pave the way for a truce that would not be a victory for the terrorists.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 15.11.2018
Gaza

Fear Triumphs: On the Nonparticipation of Eastern Jerusalem Arabs in Municipal Elections

Despite the desire of Arabs in eastern Jerusalem for greater integration in Israeli life, their fear of the Palestinian Authority and its agents kept them away from the polls in October. And while seeking pragmatic and constructive integration in Jerusalem, they still adhere to the Palestinian side of the identity axis. Once again, 38% of the capital city's residents remain outside its political arena.

Dr. David Koren
Policy Papers 14.11.2018
East Jerusalem

The Lebanese Armed Forces: Hezbollah’s Collaborator

The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 30.10.2018
Lebanon

Saudi Arabia’s own-goal

The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul is a fascinating story with potentially far-reaching regional and global implications. How will it affect Israel?

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 26.10.2018
Saudi Arabia
secretary_pompeo_meets_with_saudi_crown_prince_mohammed_bin_salman_30421982117

Don’t throw MBS under the bus

The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 26.10.2018
Saudi Arabia

In Praise of Conflict Management

Amidst violent events, it is easy to be tempted to seek decisive "solutions" to the Palestinian problem(s) – in both the PA areas and in Gaza – through drastic military action, or through equally dramatic concessions. But given the lessons of recent history, as well as the unpredictable nature of regional events, it makes sense to adhere to "conflict management" and piecemeal arrangements. This is not as a cowardly choice by hapless political and military leaders, but as a rational choice in irrational circumstances; even more so when the Iranian challenge looms larger than ever on Israel's immediate horizons.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 25.10.2018
Israeli Palestinian Conflict

China-Israel Relations: Growing Cooperation Amidst Conflicting Interests

In the past decade, relations between Israel and China have become closer, following a decision in Jerusalem to diversify and expand Israel's ties with emerging powers and countries that do not belong to the European Union and are less identified with the American coalition. The visit to Israel by China's vice president is evidence of the warming of relations between the two countries.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 25.10.2018
China-Israel Relations

Gaza and the Middle East “Camp of Stability”

Israel's actions (or at times, inaction) concerning the future of the Gaza Strip cannot be isolated from the broader context of the struggle over the entire region's balance of power. Gaza’s dependence on Egypt, and perhaps Cyprus, constitutes a common interest of the “camp of stability” in the Middle East, to curb the influence of both Turkey and Iran, and to deny Abu Mazen the baneful position of a spoiler.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 19.10.2018
Gaza

A draw with Hamas is strategically unsatisfactory

Reducing enemy capabilities and ambitions in Gaza requires Israeli military readiness and government willingness to use force intermittingly, while maintaining a healthy and resilient Israeli home front.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 19.10.2018
Gaza Hamas

Restore deterrence, but bet on mediation

Iran and the smaller terrorist groups in Gaza want a full-scale war with Israel. Hamas does not. Israel should land a decisive, well-defined blow but back Egyptian efforts to broker a cease-fire.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 19.10.2018
Gaza

Hamas’ Cyber Activity against Israel

Although Hamas' cyber capabilities do not now constitute a serious threat to Israel, this reality can quickly change in view of the rapid pace of technological progress.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 15.10.2018
Hamas Terrorism

Complications in Russian-Israeli Relations: Israel’s Aerial Freedom of Operation in Syria will be Preserved

Russia's accusations against Israel that it is responsible for the downing of its plane is meant primarily for a domestic audience. Until now, Russia has made sure to behave with restraint in the Syrian arena and to operate based on its strategic interests. One of those interests is the Russian desire to minimize Iranian involvement in Syria.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 15.10.2018
Israel - Russia relations

Warmed-over withdrawal syndrome

The INSS unilateral disengagement plan is neither new nor logical.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 12.10.2018
Foreign Policy Israeli Grand Strategy
arak_heavy_water_reactor1

Nowhere, No-Time Supervision of Iran

Israel must continue to take the offensive against Iran’s nuclear program, without reliance on international inspectors.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 05.10.2018
Iran

Israel’s War With Iran is Inevitable

In the absence of a clear American or Turkish determination to confront Iranian encroachment, only Israel has the power to stop it.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 05.10.2018
Iran

Angela Merkel’s Duplicity on Israel

Germany is being inconsistent and duplicitous and the time has come to say it loud and clear.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 05.10.2018
Germany

Common objectives, separate interests

The downing of a Russian plane by Syrian artillery after an Israeli strike proves how vital it is to maintain open lines of communications between Israel and Russia. The IDF may have to exercise more restraint, but it will still do what it must.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 03.10.2018
Israel - Russia relations

Iran’s Lies – A Tool for Concealing its Policy Contradictions in Syria

Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 03.10.2018
Iran Syria

After Ahvaz: Iran’s Regime Faces the Consequences of its Subversive Campaigns

While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders' ambitions.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 03.10.2018
Iran

As the Middle East Turns: Domestic Unrest, Changing Partnerships, and an Unreliable United States

In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 25.09.2018
US Middle East Policy

Israel’s Secret War Against Iran Is Widening

Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it's not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.09.2018
Iran Syria

The Real Story behind the Repatriation of Syrian Refugees

Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 06.09.2018
Russia Syria

The American Interpretation of Russia’s Conduct: The Case of Syria

The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 06.09.2018
US - Russia Relations

Is Khamenei Ruling out Dialogue with Trump?

On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 06.09.2018
Iran
Idlib, a city in Syria on a map (selective focus)

Erdogan’s Dilemma

Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.09.2018
Syria Turkey
morning_moroccan_desert_dune

Iran’s Involvement in the Western Sahara

Iran's goal in its activity in the Western Sahara is to subvert Morocco, a moderate Sunni state, as part of the Iranian regime's policy of spreading the Shi'ite revolution.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 04.09.2018
Iran Morocco

The Oslo Process – 25 Years On

The abject failure of the Oslo Accords has had a salutary effect on Israeli society. Israelis are today quite resilient, ready to endure – if necessary – protracted conflict.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 04.09.2018
Palestinian Authority peace process
unrwa_jerusalem

Bypass Abbas and axe UNRWA

In pursuit of peace, it’s high-time that the PLO be showered with the “tough love” once reserved uniquely for Israel. And Israel’s defense establishment should get behind the ditch UNRWA discourse.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 26.08.2018
Palestinian Authority

The Cypriotization of Northern Syria

Turkey is turning northern Syria – Jarabulus and Afrin – into the “Turkish Republic of Northern Syria,” just as it has turned northern Cyprus into a Turkish protectorate through military and economic domination.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 20.08.2018
Turkey
euphrates_liberation_brigade_in_manbij

The Future of Eastern Syria and the Israeli Interest

JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.08.2018
Syria
abu_marzook

The perception of weakness

The latest round of violence on the Israel-Gaza border has followed its familiar pattern. Neither party wants to blink first; whoever does will be at a disadvantage down the line.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 13.08.2018
Gaza

Reasons for restraint

Despite many Israelis’ growing frustration, there are good reasons why the IDF has yet to use all of its force to combat the growing terrorism from the Gaza Strip, including the fact the IDF is focused on the northern front where Israel faces its main enemy: Iran.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 12.08.2018
Gaza
2018_gaza_border_protest

The advantages of a cease-fire

Israel would prefer not to go to war with Hamas over kite terrorism but Gaza's rulers should not confuse that with apprehension. The simple fact is that clear priorities must be set and Israel must decide which of the threats it faces is truly urgent.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 12.08.2018
Gaza

Hamas Activities in Turkey against Israel

Ankara is allowing Hamas to continue operating from Turkish territory against Israel. Israel can and should thwart such Turkish violations of the reconciliation agreement between the two countries.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 03.08.2018
Turkey
Defense Secretary James N. Mattis meets with Saudi Arabia’s First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz at the Pentagon in Washington D.C., Mar. 22, 2018. (DoD photo by Navy Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Kathryn E. Holm)

US-Saudi Agreement to Increase Oil Production – Another Step towards Toppling the Iranian Regime

The recent agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is a significant blow to Iran. America seeks either regime change or a new nuclear deal on better terms.

Mr. Omer Dostri
Policy Papers 03.08.2018
US Middle East Policy

Diplomacy Backed by Military Force

How the wise use of force facilitates diplomatic processes in the Israel-Egypt-Hamas and Israel-Russia-Syria triangles

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 24.07.2018
Foreign Policy
Viktor Orbán

Hosting Viktor Orban is in Israel’s best interest

Those who called for the cancellation of Orbán’s visit did not boycott Putin’s visit to Israel in 2012, nor did they condemn Israel’s apology to Erdoğan in 2013. Realpolitik must be consistent, and self-righteousness cannot be selective.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 23.07.2018
Hungary
president_rivlin_meeting_the_senior_management_of_aipac_january_2015

Correcting Israeli Policy towards America and American Jews

What is needed is a conscious effort to change Israel’s one-party partisan image by engaging with the Democrats and the social groups that support them.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 17.07.2018
Israel-Diaspora relations
Lebanon flag with Syria flag, 3D rendering

Is southern Syria heading for ‘Lebanonization’?

The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 16.07.2018
Syria
Quneitra

The Fall of Dera’a

It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 10.07.2018
Syria

Thwart Turkey’s Jerusalem incursion

Israel should be defending itself against Erdogan by blocking his Jerusalem incursion, and taking the offensive against Erdogan by impeding his military build-up.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 10.07.2018
Turkey
reuven_rivlin_receives_the_credential_of_the_new_ambassador_from_the_european_union_october_2017_3536

Israel and Europe: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

When dealing with Europe, Israel can leverage its many technology and counter-terror assets, and it should demand diplomatic consistency and evenhandedness from the European Commission and from European governments. Israel should be cautious regarding Europe's Eurosceptic governments and political parties.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 08.07.2018
Israel-Europe relations
barack_obama_and_bill_clinton

Moving the markers

The Clinton-Obama parameters haven’t worked – not for 25 years of peacemaking efforts since Oslo. They have lead to deadlock and much suffering. Let’s give the Trump team credit for taking a fresh look at what is safe, wise, fair and realistic in today’s Israeli-Palestinian reality.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 08.07.2018
peace process
London, United Kingdom, 14th April 2018:- Protesters gather along Kensington High Street, near the Israeli Embassy in London to protest the ongoing occupation of Palestine.

Why Don’t Europeans Get It?

As the memory of the Holocaust fades, traditional anti-Semitism that turns into anti-Israel attitudes is no longer politically incorrect.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 01.07.2018
anti-Semitism
demege_caused_by_palestinian_fire-kites_2

‘Mowing the grass’ in Gaza

Because ending terrorism from Gaza is unrealistic, Israel has wisely adopted a strategy of attrition. If there is soon to be a large-scale ground operation, conquering the whole Strip should not be the goal.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 25.06.2018
Gaza
תחנת הכח אורות רבין בחדרה

The target: infrastructure

If recruiting a disgraced former official with no access to updated information is the best Iran's spymasters could do, Israel's intelligence superiority is in no danger.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.06.2018
Iran

Netanyahu’s Visit to Amman: A Timely Reminder of Jordan’s Strategic Importance

Israel's national interest, and the broader patterns of cooperation among key regional partners in the "camp of stability," require close attention to the needs of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. For decades, it has been, and remains, part of Israel's strategic depth.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.06.2018
Jordan
un_geneva_human_rights_and_alliance_of_civilizations_room

The US should have Left the UN Human Rights Council Years Ago

The UNHRC was hopelessly biased, obsessed with Israel, and highly tolerant towards a full range of human rights abusers.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 22.06.2018
US Middle East Policy
צה"ל - שכנות טובה

Will Israel Once Again Turn its Back on Those Who Have Been on its Side?

Israel may soon face a dilemma. The "arrangement" with Russia as to the future of Syria may stave-off an Iranian presence but will pose an existential danger to the groups of rebels near the border – groups which have worked closely with the IDF to prevent direct friction with hostile elements on the line of contact. It is vital that the solutions to this challenge demonstrate to future partners that Israel does not turn its back on those who have assisted it facing a common threat.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Dr. Nir Boms
Policy Papers 19.06.2018
Syria

Winning hasbara strategies

The deep “psychological asymmetry” employed by Hamas and Fatah as a strategic weapon against Israel is working. How to handle this? Here are five strategies, including this: Don’t be embarrassed by Israel’s strength. Admit to it. Flaunt it. Better shock-and-awe than shrink-and-whimper.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 17.06.2018
israel public-relations efforts

Iran’s response: The ‘strategy of tension’

Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most rudderless.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 07.06.2018
Iran
דגל הג'יהאד האיסלאמי

Hamas’ junior partner, Iran’s hidden hand

Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 07.06.2018
Gaza
US middile east

Game On: The new strategy of the US and its allies in the Middle East

Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 27.05.2018
US Middle East Policy
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas

The diplomatic day after Abbas

Israel should be preparing for a paradigm change with regard to administration of the territories; a move beyond rotten reliance on Fatah leadership and the creaky two-state construct.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 25.05.2018
Palestinian Authority
F35 strike aircraft front view isolated on a white background.

10 reasons to tank the F-35 jet sale to Turkey

Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan's authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 25.05.2018
Turkey
syrian map in chains

Putin’s Endgame in Syria Has Arrived

It's not an Assad victory — it's a frozen conflict.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 25.05.2018
Syria
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan: Anti-Semite and regional threat

Israel should ring the alarm bells about Turkish adventurism. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become a dangerous country on the road to authoritarianism.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 21.05.2018
Turkey
VIOLENT PALESTINIAN PROTEST

Gaza prejudice and perfidy

What is Western support for “Israel’s right to exist within secure and recognized borders” worth if those borders cannot be defended?

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 21.05.2018
Gaza
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras speak at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem, during a government to government meeting.

The Fourth Trilateral Eastern Mediterranean Summit

Greece, Cyprus and Israel Consolidate their Cooperation.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.05.2018
Foreign Policy
saad_hariri

Lebanon: Whoever You Vote For, Hezbollah Wins

The biggest loser in the May 6 elections was the Future Movement of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.05.2018
Lebanon
Silhouette of an army soldier preparing his tank and weapons at sunset

Under fire but unfazed, Israel plays the waiting game with Iran

Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.05.2018
Iran
missiles

Don’t ease-up on Iran

Israel's intelligence branches need to understand what was destroyed and then identify where and how Iran intends to push its military build-up forward – and neutralize that as well.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 12.05.2018
Iran
חיל האויר הישראלי

Tehran is paying a heavy price

The Iranian provocation on the Golan Heights failed, and the Iranians would do well to cut their losses now and end their confrontation with Israel.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.05.2018
Iran
דונאלד טראמפ

Trump changes the discourse

The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 11.05.2018
US Middle East Policy
TEL AVIV, ISRAEL, 30 April 2018 - 3D Rendering for Israel revealing 100 000 Iranian files on secret nuclear program.

The depth of Iran’s deception

Many criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's unveiling of a secret Iranian nuclear archive as "nothing new" and "a performance." But there was plenty new in his presentation, and it will have far-reaching implications.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 08.05.2018
Iran
מתקן אטום באראק

Persuading Europe to pressure Iran

Israel's revelation of Iran's nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 02.05.2018
Iran
נתניהו ומסמכי הגרעין האיראניים

Capture of the Iranian nuclear documents: A fantastic intelligence feat

Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 01.05.2018
Iran

Macron’s Message: Towards a New Deal with Iran?

The French president's visit to served to demonstrate Macron's importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran's strategic ambitions.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 01.05.2018
Iran
סדרת הפרסומים "ניירות עמדה" מטעם המכון מתפרסמת הודות לנדיבותה של משפחת גרג רוסהנדלר.

70 years of strategic success

Despite military threats and other challenges, the State of Israel is winning on all fronts. Israel is stronger and healthier than all its enemies combined.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 30.04.2018
70 years of strategic success
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan’s Shadow Army: The Influence of “Sadat,” Turkey’s Private Defense Group

“Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.04.2018
Turkey
USS Porter on Deployment

The Great Distraction of Punitive Airstrikes

Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
The guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG 78) conducts strike operations against a target in Syria while in the Mediterranean Sea, The Porter conducted naval operations in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations in support of U.S. national security interests in Europe. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ford Williams)

Trump’s Promo?

The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
tomahawk_missile_fired_from_us_destroyers

Global tensions: No end in sight

With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran's actions in Syria.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
the_church_of_the_holy_sepulchre

The Holy Sepulchre Wake-up Call

Crises between the State of Israel and Christian institutions will continue to arise, unnecessarily, until Israel creates a central authority to manage a coordinated strategy regarding relations with Christians.

Mr. Lazar Berman , Dr. David Gurevich
Policy Papers 12.04.2018
The Christian World
benjamin_netanyahu_drone_2018

Israel won’t tolerate Iranian presence in Syria

Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 11.04.2018
Iran Syria
abed el sisi

An Egyptian Autumn?

Hopes and fears abound as President Sisi begins his second term. The winter of 2011 seemed to usher in a democratic spring. But the spring of 2018 seems to be authoritarian autumn.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.04.2018
Egypt
American soldier with flag on background - Syria

After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.04.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy
The Syrian Arab Republic Administrative divisions Map

The Sultan’s Pleasure: Turkey Expands Operations in Syria and Iraq

All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn next? And what is the goal of the Turkish campaign?

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.04.2018
Turkey
forensic_tent_at_the_maltings_salisbury

European Policy after the Poisoning in Britain: Rhetoric or Action?

In spite of the impressive international front against Russia following the former spy's poisoning in Britain, its activity seems to be limited mainly to rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, which will not achieve Russia's isolation

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 09.04.2018
Russia
London, United Kingdom, 17th March 2018:- The Stand Up to Racism march through central London

After ‘Afrin: Make Erdogan Pay

President Erdogan is taking Turkey in dangerous directions. The conquest of the Kurdish 'Afrin enclave lends momentum to his ambitions. Erdogan must pay a manifest price for leading Turkey towards dictatorship and Islamism.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 28.03.2018
Kurds Turkey
Flag of Iran,realistic puzzle effect.

The missing piece of the puzzle

Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 28.03.2018
Iran

On the State of Israel’s role in combating anti-Semitism

The Global Forum for Combating Anti-Semitism, which met last week in Jerusalem, needs focus.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 27.03.2018
anti-Semitism
deputy_crown_prince_mohammad_bin_salman_bin_abdulaziz_al-saud_participates_in_the_counter-isil_ministerial_plenary_session_-_flickr_-_u-s-_department_o

What a Crown Prince Wants

Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 21.03.2018
Saudi Arabia
אורי לוברני

Hoping for regime change in Iran

Might more be done to advance an Iranian counter-revolution? Uri Lubrani certainly thought so, and he was not naive.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 14.03.2018
Gaza Iran
Usa Flag on Urss Flag. Cold War Illustrations.

Hot Winds of the Cold War

It is not surprising that the US responded to Putin’s recent strategic weapons speech with indifference. Putin’s speech reveals, more than anything else, the continuing Russian trauma from the “Star Wars” initiative of President Reagan.

Dr. Uzi Rubin
Policy Papers 12.03.2018
US - Russia Relations
salih_muslim__ulla_jelpke

The Arrest of Saleh Muslim: Escalation in Kurdish-Turkish Tensions

How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 28.02.2018
Kurds Syria
anatot

The demand for sovereignty over Judea and Samaria is a waste of Zionist energy

The longing for Jewish sovereignty over the historic homeland of the Jewish people is understandable. Nevertheless, the recent attempt to pass a law declaring Israeli sovereignty over the settlements in Judea and Samaria is useless.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 23.02.2018
Judea and Samaria

Waking up to the Iranian threat

With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 23.02.2018
Iran
two flags: American and Israeli waving in the blue sky

Toward a New Model for the U.S.-Israel Relationship

By leveraging its remarkable achievements in the fields most relevant to future conflicts, Israel can transition from dependence on the U.S. to partnership.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 21.02.2018
US Israel Relations
artillery corps in gaza

When will the next war begin?

It must be made clear to Israel’s rivals in both the north and the south that they will pay a very serious price for attacking Israel.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 11.02.2018
security
JERUSALEM JUNE 12: Group of young, male, Arab students stand inside the New Gate on Bab El-Jadid Street in Old City, Jerusalem, Israel, studying for their final graduation exams on June 12, 2007.

Israel must rule generously in Jerusalem

Investment in eastern Jerusalem is the core of sovereign political action that will keep Jerusalem whole and make it prosperous for all.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 11.02.2018
Jerusalem
Iran Talks. vienna

‘Fix it or Nix it’ is the Wrong Approach

What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 10.02.2018
Iran
An African talking with police officers in Tel Aviv.

Israel is not deporting refugees

Israel's policy is legal and justified. Citizens' well-being must come before that of illegal immigrants.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 03.02.2018
Immigration
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with Mike Pence at the Prime Minister Offics in Jerusalem.

A tale of two speeches

Harper and Pence have offered moral and spiritual leadership for the world. Their momentous Knesset speeches were epoch-making events.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 27.01.2018
US Israel Relations US Middle East Policy
benjamin netanyahu with india PM moudi

Israel is worthy and winning

There are competing narratives about Israel: that it is flying-high, or that it is heading towards disaster. Wise and important actors around the world are coming to the conclusion that the first assertion is true. Israel is an anchor of sanity and a source of ingenuity in an unruly world. Israel’s strategy of vigilance, patience, and looking over the horizon for new partnerships is working.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 25.01.2018
Foreign Policy Israeli Grand Strategy
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and first deputy Ishaq Jahangiri election rally in Tehran's Azadi Stadium, May 13, 2017.

New storms on the horizon

The recent protests in Iran are very important because they point to the Iranian leadership's economic failures, and the consequent anger harbored by a considerable number of Iranian citizens over their country's investments in far-off countries such as Lebanon and Syria. These investments, they feel, are at their expense.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 15.01.2018
Iran
India and Israel, two flags waving against blue sky. 3d image

Netanyahu in India

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visits India just half a year after the first historic trip of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Israel (July 2017). These visits reflect the significant expansion in relations between the two countries that has taken place since the establishment of full diplomatic relations in 1992.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 15.01.2018
Foreign Policy India
BERLIN - NOVEMBER 12 2017: Protest action of the Syrian opposition near Brandenburg Gate against the Russian Army in Syria.

The Russians are… Leaving?

A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.

Dr. Anna Geifman
Policy Papers 02.01.2018
Russia Syria
An Israeli defense forces soldier dressed in uniform aims his M16 rifle while on duty

Is the IDF ready for our next war?

The IDF is building an impressive capacity to crush Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian assets in future fighting. But it must not neglect defense of the periphery or go soft on its ethos and fighting spirit.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 02.01.2018
IDF
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Erdogan’s Israel obsession

While Israel cannot let Turkish President Erdogan's attacks slide, its response must differentiate between Turkish society and its popular but problematic leader.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 30.12.2017
Turkey
Donald Trump

Trump identifies the enemy

Trump’s new US national security document is a robust statement of American strategic realism; a necessary corrective to Obama-era enfeeblement and self-flagellation. There are enemies out there and the US has to lead in confronting them.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 29.12.2017
US national security

In Middle East, Pence must address realities of Iranian encroachment

If the United States wants to disengage from the Middle East it should do so with a bang. The address for such a forceful demonstration is clear: the Iranian nuclear program.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 29.12.2017
Iran US Israel Relations
Minefield sign in Hebrew, Arabic, English in Jordan valley, Israel

Countdown to a conflict

The increasing rocket fire from Gaza at Israel reflects a tragic reality in which neither Israel nor the Palestinians want a confrontation, but both sides may be helpless to stop it. Meanwhile, the Islamic world will not really support the Palestinians.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 24.12.2017
Gaza Palestinian Authority
vice president Mike Pence

Greeting Vice President Pence

After recognizing Jerusalem, America’s next move should be banishing the EU from regional diplomacy.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 24.12.2017
US Israel Relations
donald_trump_and_king_salman_bin_abdulaziz_al_saud_talk_together_may_2017

Skeptical of the Saudis

Israel should not bear-hug the problematic Saudis, nor fall prey to over-enthusiastic fantasies. Don’t assume that MBS is the answer to Israel’s prayers in facing-down Iran.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 12.12.2017
Saudi Arabia

Trump’s commendable defiance on Jerusalem

Pushing-back against Palestinian denialism and global defamation of Israel.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 08.12.2017
Jerusalem US Middle East Policy
דגל ארצות הברית מתנוסס מעל ביתה הראשון של הקונסוליה האמריקנית בשער יפו, 1857 בערך

Jerusalem is the test of US leadership in the Middle East

The Arab League’s Chairman, Ahmed Abul Gheit, has warned President Trump that recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would do a disservice to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as well as ignite violence in the Middle-East. Given the absence of a peace process and given the abundance of violence in the Middle-East, Mr. Aboul-Gheit’s warning does not even pass the laughing test.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 06.12.2017
Jerusalem US Middle East Policy
Taba, Egypt - Beach near the Taba border control

For how long will the peace treaty with Egypt be robust?

Everything must be done by Jerusalem to preserve the peace treaty with Egypt, but Israel should still prepare itself for worst-case scenarios.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 01.12.2017
Egypt

70 Years to the UN vote on Partition: Looking back, looking ahead

The 70th anniversary of the UN resolution on the partition of British Palestine is an opportunity to debunk a myth about this resolution, and to rethink Israel’s policy toward the United Nations.

Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Policy Papers 29.11.2017

Confronting the con artists of Iran

No duplicitous decrees by supreme or smiling ayatollahs should deflect our attention from Tehran’s dangerous moves.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 27.11.2017
Iran
Gaza Israel Highway Road Sign At Night

A Marshall Plan for Gaza is a Bad Idea

Prof. Efraim Inbar argues that Israel should adhere to its longstanding approach of using sticks and carrots in the Palestinian arena.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 19.11.2017
Gaza
Israeli Police Officers

Cleaning-up and sewing-up eastern Jerusalem

The application of de facto sovereignty and governance on the ground is the core of political action that can keep Jerusalem whole. The struggle for sovereignty in Jerusalem has transitioned from ‘Jerusalem on High’ – high-powered political summits, to ‘Jerusalem of Below’ – the conduct of decent daily life in the city for Arab and Jewish residents alike.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 19.11.2017
East Jerusalem
A row of intercontinental ballistic missiles launching in a desert on a blue sky backgrund

Con artists of Tehran

A recently disclosed ruling by Iran's supreme leader caps the range of Iran's missiles at 2,000 kilometers, a distance that threatens Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt but doesn’t threaten Western Europe. Practically speaking, this ruling is neither new nor truthful. Europe has a good reason to be concerned.

Dr. Uzi Rubin
Iran Policy Papers 18.11.2017

Israel Must Rule All of Jerusalem

Cutting Arab neighborhoods in the east and north out of Jerusalem’s municipal jurisdiction is a bad idea; a slippery slope towards a full-scale political division of the city.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 17.11.2017
Jerusalem
middle east map

Iran in charge

A few seemingly unrelated incidents that took place across the Middle East this week all seem to point out that much of the regional unrest can be traced back to Iran, which is backing Shiite forces from Pakistan to Syria. That is unlikely to change.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 15.11.2017
Iran
Blurry Background of Terrorist carry weapon hidden in darkness

Don’t return terrorist bodies for nothing

It makes no sense to return the bodies of Hamas terrorists killed in a tunnel strike without Hamas giving us something in exchange.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 15.11.2017
Terrorism

Mind-blowing European Union chutzpa

Israel shouldn’t pay the EU one red cent of “compensation” for dismantling illegally-built EU settlements in Area C.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 28.10.2017
EU Judea and Samaria
Kurdish-inhabited area political map

The Kurdish Referendum – A Strategic Mistake

It would have been better for the Kurds to settle for strengthening their autonomous region in Iraq rather than challenging their stronger neighbors.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 28.10.2017
kurdistan

How Trump and Netanyahu can transform peace diplomacy

By tabling creative coexistence proposals, pushing core issues to the top of the agenda, suggesting innovative alternatives to the problematic two-state paradigm, and articulating red lines that are clear and broad.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 28.10.2017
peace process

Between Pyongyang and Tehran: The Need for Urgent Action against Iran

The Iranian situation is both more urgent and more malleable than the almost hopeless situation with North Korea.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 28.10.2017
North Korea

Hamas Security Has Beards, Fatah Doesn’t: Why Real PA Unity Won’t Happen

Only a showdown can decide between Hamas and Fatah rule, with one side totally victorious and the other totally defeated, and it is doubtful that Fatah can muster the strength to make a bid for true power in Gaza.

Professor Hillel Frisch
Policy Papers 17.10.2017
Palestinian Authority

Western Wall unity

More than one million Jewish pilgrims flocked to Jerusalem’s Western Wall during the High Holiday period. So let’s keep Kotel “crises” in perspective.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 14.10.2017
Jerusalem

Netanyahu’s strategic achievements

Netanyahu has driven Israel forward on the basis of a coherent strategic worldview and improved Israel’s fortunes.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 14.10.2017
Israeli Grand Strategy Netanyahu

Fund the Temple Mount Sifting Project Now

The sifting project has turned the Wakf’s criminal dump of the most sensitive and valuable archaeological dirt on the globe – a national disgrace for Israel – into a national treasure.

Mr. David M. Weinberg
Policy Papers 14.10.2017
Jerusalem Temple Mount

The real test for the Palestinian reconciliation is disarming Hamas

A Fatah-Hamas reconciliation is promising for the Palestinian people, but it cannot come at Israel's expense.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 07.10.2017
Palestinian Authority

Use of Force: The Only Way to Stop Iran

Only the use of force can stop Iran from fulfilling its ambitions. Israel is on its own in this regard.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 05.10.2017
Iran

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