Russia

Venezuela has become flash point between Russia and the US. The way in which America responds to Russian conduct in its backyard will influence Russia's international conduct in the future.

The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country's civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.

Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.

Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.

In spite of the impressive international front against Russia following the former spy's poisoning in Britain, its activity seems to be limited mainly to rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, which will not achieve Russia's isolation

A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.