While Israel must show absolute commitment to the release of all the hostages, collective national security must be its top priority. The political echelon needs to make it clear to the public and the families of the hostages that it is imperative to stick to priorities in the war on Hamas. It is only by achieving military and political victory that Israel will create the conditions for the release of all the hostages.
After the resumption of fighting following a week-long truce during which over 110 Israeli hostages were released in a deal whose price was reasonable, the tension between the goals of the war – between the necessity of dismantling the military and governmental infrastructure of Hamas and the release of the hostages – is increasing again. Israel tried to release as many hostages as possible and showed restraint in the face of many violations of the ceasefire by Hamas up until the point it refused to continue releasing women and children. The Hamas leadership, which probably misread the Israeli leadership and the public, tried to manipulate Israel to extend the truce and negotiate vis-a-vis other categories of hostages. Hamas believed that the sensitivity of Israeli society regarding the hostages would force the Israeli government to be more flexible and surrender to Hamas’ conditions.
Israel did the right thing by renewing the fighting, and it must now continue its campaign even more vigorously. Under these conditions, it can be assumed that the Hamas leadership will seek to keep a large group of hostages close by as an insurance policy. It is hard to see how this cynical leadership will willingly give up this asset. Only strong military pressure can create the conditions for the release of all the hostages. Only military pressure aimed at eliminating the organization’s military and governmental capacities can perhaps lead Hamas to understand that continuing to hold the hostages is no longer an asset, but rather a strategic burden. Only when the Hamas leadership realizes that this is its last chance to save something from the organization, which they may be able to rehabilitate outside the Gaza Strip, will Israel succeed in rescuing the hostages.
Hamas seeks to use the hostages to stage the image of Gaza as an area of humanitarian disaster, to influence the international community to increase the pressure on Israel to end the war, enabling to preserve the organization’s status as a sovereign military and governmental entity in the Gaza Strip.
Hamas’ leadership continues to watch the Israeli media closely; it interprets the demonstrations calling for the release of hostages and the incessant echo of these calls by the media as an Israeli weakness. This strengthens Hamas’ conviction to continue the cognitive war. What is seen in the eyes of Israeli society as a strength, as an uncompromising commitment to the value of life and the state’s duty to rescue its citizens, is seen by Hamas – which sanctifies sacrifice and death, and which does not hesitate to trade in the lives of its citizens – as a weakness of Israeli society.
The families of the hostages meanwhile press on with their campaign to increase the pressure on the decision-makers to focus on the immediate release of their loved ones. While the families’ struggle is understandable, the pressure they exert is problematic. it may encourage Hamas leaders to harden their position and increase the price they will ask for the return of the hostages; it may even delay their release. From a strategic perspective, it is counterproductive to present the struggle of the families prominently in the media. Hamas seeks to divert the negotiations to other categories and demands the war be halted.
The demonstrations to bring the hostages home “now” reverse the priorities between national security and personal security. Despite the state’s commitment to personal security under the social contract between the state and its citizens, collective security has priority. There is no doubt that the fact that Israeli citizens are in the hands of Hamas constitutes a terrible human tragedy. However, without the realization of the war’s objectives, which serve national security, Israeli society will be condemned to many additional painful tragedies of this type, and not only in the Palestinian arena. The national interest requires a stubborn adherence to the goals of the war concerning the dismantling of Hamas. Moreover, continued military pressure aimed at dismantling Hamas will allow the release of the hostages at a price that will not incentivize other terrorist organizations to kidnap Israelis.
Priority must be given to the elimination of Hamas infrastructure because Israel is currently at war on five fronts: the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon, southern Syria, Yemen, and of course Judea and Samaria. Two additional fronts, Western Iraq and the Arab citizens of Israel, may join the war if Israel is unable to dismantle Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
An Israeli failure in Gaza will inject energy into the axis of resistance, led by Iran, and will expose Israel to the unbearable reality of a continuous war on all fronts. Failure to achieve complete success in the Gaza Strip will thwart the possibility of changing the regional architecture, which should be based on the normalization process between Israel and the pragmatic Arab countries, with an emphasis on Saudi Arabia. The new regional architecture is the basis for weakening the axis of resistance led by Iran which could bring change also in the Palestinian arena.
A war in which Hamas survives as a military and governmental entity may leave the hostages in Gaza for many more years. If Hamas feels that it has achieved victory, this will lead the organization to raise its price tag for the release of the hostages, further weaken Israel’s deterrence, and intensify the tragedy of the hostages and their families.
Reordering priorities does not mean abandoning the hostages. The values of human life and releasing prisoners will continue to be founding values of Israeli society and ethos, but not absolute and exclusive values. The value of life in general, and of the individual in particular, can only be guaranteed through collective national security. At the present time, this can only be achieved through the destruction of Hamas as a military and governmental force. A focused effort in this direction significantly increases the chance of releasing more hostages during the fighting, and it is likely that if such conditions arise, the Israeli government will know how to take advantage of them and ensure the release of hostages.
JISS Policy Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.
Photo: IMAGO / Newscom / EyePress
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