Russia

A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.

As Israel and Syria concluded a deal on the return of an Israeli woman from Syria, questions arise regarding the cost and what the future of such transactions with Russian mediation should be.

Why can’t Netanyahu free Israelis from Gaza as easily as from Syria?
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Russian President Putin has strong relationships with both Netanyahu and Syrian President Assad, whereas Hamas has unrealistic demands.

Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.

The Abraham Accords and beyond
Prof. Efraim Inbar: It would be a strategic nightmare if Turkey joins an axis with Russia, Iran and China. Only a Turkey linked to the West can refrain from going nuclear.

Experts predict what Israel can expect from new administration
A conference held by JISS and B’nai B’rith International looked at the likely foreign policy priorities of the Biden administration, ranging from COVID-19 to climate change and Iran.

Putin’s strategy in Israel, Iran and Syria
Ms. Micky Aharonson explains how Israel maneuvers between Washington and Moscow, and what she expects from the Biden administration regarding Russia policy. (Al Monitor podcast, 09.12.2020)

The efforts of Moscow to assert itself as a power in the eastern Mediterranean should sound a cautionary note.

Experts believe Israel unlikely to drop lucrative arms sales to Azerbaijan
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Israel will honor its contracts with Azerbaijan. What they do is not our responsibility.

Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.

A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.

Since 2014, Sisi and Putin have brought Egyptian and Russian interests into closer alignment. While Egypt wants to maintain its strategic relationship with the US, it desires to diversify its sources of support. It is in Israel's interest that America maintains its influence in Egypt, and that the common Egyptian and Russian effort in Libya will prevail over Turkey's influence.

Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.

Prospects of a wide-scale Russia-Turkey conflict.
 Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman

Israel, Russia play delicate balancing act in maintaining tricky relationship.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Ultimately, for Putin, it is not a bad thing that Israel is limiting Iranian presence in Syria.

Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.

Long live the Tsar.
An interview with Miki Aharonon about Putin’s visit to Israel.

Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.

Moscow’s trouble with Israelis has a deeper meaning.
Micky Aharonson: The Naama Issachar case is “surrounded by so many other things, such as the growing anger of the Russian military and security establishment towards Israel.”

It would undoubtedly serve Israel's interest for Russia to draw closer to the US on a wide range of issues, and above all, on Iran.

Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.

Will the loaded, long-distance relationship between Russia and Israel last?
Micky Aharonson: “There is a positive tone in the discussions, but it is disconnected from Russia’s strategic decisions, which are based on Russian interests.”

How worried should we be that Russia might have an Israeli missile? Not very, says expert.
Founder and former head of the Homa Directorate in the Defense Ministry Dr. Uzi Rubin, says Israel must take into account that what goes up, must come down – sometimes, over the border.

Putin, hackers, and cannabis: The bizarre story of an Israeli-American jailed in Russia.
Prof. Inbar: I am not sure this case has a geopolitical angle.

The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.

Attacks on Iranian targets in Syria serve Russian interests.
Col. Lerman of JISS: Down the road, what the Iranians want to do in Syria and what the Russians want to do in Syria are two totally different things.

Outwardly, Russia is loyal to the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the reason for Middle East unrest. This approach raises the bar on Palestinian demands and makes normal life in the region less likely.

Kremlin says Russia-US-Israel meeting 'very important’.
Dr. Eran Lerman, former Deputy NSC head: Meeting is Russian ‘slap’ at Iran.

Venezuela has become flash point between Russia and the US. The way in which America responds to Russian conduct in its backyard will influence Russia's international conduct in the future.

Netanyahu tells Putin Israel will continue to strike against Iran in Syria.
Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Israel needs Russia to remain on the ground, as an arbiter between Turks, Assad and Iran.

The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country's civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.

Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.

So in Israel's election, who are the Russians for?
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Nobody should fall off their chair at the thought of a foreign country trying to influence another country’s elections. It happens all the time.

A Fragile Russian-Turkish Cease-fire In Syria’s Idlib.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of JISS: Turkey is eager to exclude Syria from negotiations because it does not recognize the government of al-Assad and does not want to grant it legitimacy by engaging in talks.

Russia and Israel step back from brink after Syria downs military plane.
Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Russia will not stand in the way of Israeli operations to stop Iranian expansion, knowing how existential they are seen in Jerusalem.

Kremlin Chilly to Syrian Condolences for Deadly Plane Downing.
General Amidror: It was not our mistake, and we did whatever was needed to prevent any harm to any Russian forces.

Russia Rages at Israel After Syria Downs Russian Plane, Key Israeli Delegation Goes to Moscow.
General Amidror: It is very important for Israel to prevent the Iranians from building this independent war machine in Syria and to prevent the Iranians from transferring game-changer weapons systems into the hands of Hezbollah.

Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.

The US is failing to appreciate the significance of the leverage points that the Syrian arena provides for Russia. This leverage allows Russia to exact a heavy toll for the measures the US is demanding.

Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.

Syria in Gaza, Without the Russians.
Dr. Eran Lerman: The Gaza Strip is a microcosm of what is happening throughout the region - a reflection of the broader conflicts throughout the Middle East.

on the nexus between Syria, Iran, Russia and Israel
Dr Jonathan Spyer  discusses how the interests of Russia, Iran and Israel are influencing the situation in Syria as the civil war draws to an end.

It's not an Assad victory — it's a frozen conflict.

Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.

With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran's actions in Syria.

Ex-Security Official: Israel Seeks to Avoid Russian Interests in Syria.
Former NSC head Yaakov Amidror said that Russia "can't complain" if Israel targets Iranians in Syria.

Plot Thickens For Israel In Syria As Russia Outs Military Operation.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: When it comes to our national security we are entitled to do what is necessary to uphold it
The Media Line, April 9, 2018

In spite of the impressive international front against Russia following the former spy's poisoning in Britain, its activity seems to be limited mainly to rhetoric and diplomatic gestures, which will not achieve Russia's isolation

On Russia’s anti-Trump posturing regarding Iran Comment by Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, The Media Line, 06.01.2018

A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.

Israel’s real interest today is to prevent Jordan from being destabilized by Iran, according to Dr. Eran Lerman.

An interview with Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror about Israel's strategy vs. Russia and Iran in Syria, and about the launch of the institute.