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A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.
Turkey irked over Israeli-Greek project for undersea power cableDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Israel-Turkey relations could continue improving.
An Eastern Mediterranean Strategic OverviewInterview with Dr. Eran Lerman
With gas alliance moored to Turkey tensions, Israel tacks toward energy securityDr. Eran Lerman: The direction is to bring the Egyptians in, which will them resistant to Turkish blandishment, which seems to be increasing. Dr. Eytan Yanarocak: Erdogan is trying to mend the fences with Joe Biden.
Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.
Rare visit to Israel by Egypt’s oil minister sends signals to Biden, Erdogan Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: The trip, following similar delegations of Greek and Cypriot leaders, is intended to show that regional allies are united and coordinated when dealing with foes and friends, including President Biden.
With US cold shoulder, should Israel now pivot towards France?Col. Olivier Rafowicz: France’s political interests currently dovetail with Israel’s on multiple issues. Col. Eran Lerman: Israel needs to be more closely coordinated with Paris.
Turkey and Pakistan’s growing closeness has deep foundations. These are two countries following a similar trajectory.
Turkey and Israel Inch Closer Toward ReconciliationDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: There won’t be any major steps forward until the “crystallization” of the results of next month’s Israeli elections.
Israel still cool to gestures from TurkeyDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: The Abraham Accords changed the geopolitical set-up in the region, and Israel is no longer the Middle East isolated state it used to be. Turkey must come to terms with this new situation.
Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan's ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.
In first, Saudi paper prints op-ed by Israelis - on Erdogan's private militiasFellows at Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security pen analysis of Turkish leader's proxy armies, based on joint research with a UAE think tank.
Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.
Only the very optimistic could believe in real strategic cooperation between Erdogan’s regime and Jerusalem.
Les milices privées reniables d’Erdoğan déstabilisent le Moyen-OrientLeur rôle est de faire avancer son grand plan de rétablissement de pouvoir sur d’anciens territoires de l’empire ottoman, allant des territoires palestiniens, à la Syrie en passant par le Caucase et aussi loin que le Cachemire, selon certains rapports.
The Abraham Accords and beyondProf. Efraim Inbar: It would be a strategic nightmare if Turkey joins an axis with Russia, Iran and China. Only a Turkey linked to the West can refrain from going nuclear.
Getting inside Erdogan's headDr. Hay Eitan Cohen Yanarocak: The Turks are afraid of harsher American sanctions and they want help from the Israeli and Jewish lobbies, which they see as having a lot of sway in Washington. Their assumption is that renormalization with Israel will be a trust-building step for Washington, a kind of proof of good behavior.
The EastMed Dispute & its Implications for Israel, Part IIDr. Eran Lerman and Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of JISS look ahead at opportunities for cooperation in the eastern Mediterranean.
The EastMed Dispute & its Implications for Israel, Part I Dr. Eran Lerman and Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of JISS analyze the factors roiling the Mediterranean region: the newly discovered gas resources in contested Exclusive Economic Zones, and the assertive policy of Turkey under Erdogan.
A briefing by experts of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Arabs states draw closer to Israel to counter non-Arab powers Turkey and IranDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Almost in every theater, Turkey, Qatar and Hamas are challenging the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Israeli general calls for closer cooperation with Egypt against TurkeyCol. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Egypt and Israel are annoyed by Erdogan's ambition to establish a neo-Ottoman era, which is increasingly dangerous.
UAVs, which used to be supportive weapons systems, are rapidly maturing into decisive weapons. Israel now faces threats from the entire spectrum of unmanned aerospace vehicles, ranging from Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) to Kamikaze drones and precision ballistic missiles.
Iran has ‘more to lose than to gain’ from Azerbaijan victoryMiki Aharonson: The Islamic Republic is fearful of an Israeli presence on its northwest border, in addition to the presence of Turkish-backed Sunni operatives sent to help the Azeris
On the dispute between Erdogan and Macron regarding Nagorno KarabakhInterview with Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
The efforts of Moscow to assert itself as a power in the eastern Mediterranean should sound a cautionary note.
Israel’s Geopolitical Challenges in the Deadly Conflict Between Armenia, Azerbaijan Prof. Efraim Inbar: Azerbaijan supplies much of Israel’s oil and it borders on Iran, and obviously Israel is interested in looking into Iran.
The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.
Experts believe Israel unlikely to drop lucrative arms sales to AzerbaijanProf. Efraim Inbar: Israel will honor its contracts with Azerbaijan. What they do is not our responsibility.
Erdogan: 'Jerusalem is our city, a city from us' Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: When Erdoğan lashes out, whether it be against Armenia, via military assistance to Azerbaijan, against Greece or by verbal attacks on Israel, we know that he is talking to his electoral base.
Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.
Turkey wants to have it both ways: To act against the Salafists, while using them as dispensable mercenaries against the Kurds.
Turkey’s ambitious and expansionist leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has capitalized on the end of the Cold War and on US isolationist tendencies in enhancing Turkey’s international standing.
Doha, alongside Ankara, is undermining American interests in the Middle East.
Change in the Middle EastProf. Inbar: We Will Not See a Peaceful Middle East
Video briefing by Prof. Efraim Inbar to the Zionist Federation of the UK (September 2020).
Under Erdogan's leadership, Turkey threatens the stability of the region and Israel’s interests too.
Turkey's bid to return to Ottoman-era glory endangers Israel and the regionProf. Efraim Inbar: Erdoğan believes that Turkey has a great destiny and should be a world power.
Who's who in the race for Hamas' top political spot?Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Erdogan sees its relationship with Hamas through the lens of the 'good Muslim'
Hizbullah, Hamas Chiefs Discuss Israel-UAE DealProf. Efraim Inbar: Ankara is trying to use its ally Hamas to get closer to Hizbullah, to increase its control over Lebanon.
The concealment of Turkish corona morbidity ratesDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Erdogan is concealing Turkey's true corona figures
On Turkey-Greece tensions in the eastern MediterraneanProf. Efraim Inbar to TV7
Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.
Israel should act to ensure that the Greek-Egyptian EEZ delimitation map is globally endorsed, as opposed to the Turkish-GNA alternative, and work in the American arena to curb Erdogan’s ambitions.
Israel is unable to get directly involved in eastern Mediterranean hostilities, should they erupt. But it can and should cooperate closely with Greece in intelligence matters and arms acquisition and coordinate political action with Greece in Washington. The US stance largely will determine the practical scope of Erdogan’s ambitions.
Ankara's military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.
Watch this video briefing about Turkish activism and aggression across the region, given in early July by JISS fellow Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon confronts a “chutzpadik” Turkish TV personality about Israeli "annexation and occupation."
From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-NATO’ orientation that Turkey’s Western apologists like to recall.
A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.
This paper reviews the responses of Middle Eastern countries to the spread of the coronavirus and highlights diplomatic and defense implications stemming from the situation. The assessment of JISS fellows is that the coronavirus crisis will not fundamentally change power dynamics in the region or alter the prevailing ambitions and policies of key countries.
Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.
Prospects of a wide-scale Russia-Turkey conflict. Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
Trilateral cooperation among Israel, Greece and Cyprus to build a natural gas subsea pipeline is setting the stage for more tensions with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Is Turkey trying to sabotage massive new Israel-Cyprus-Greece EastMed gas deal? Prof. Efraim Inbar: The Libyan-Turkish deal is meant to force Israel and Cyprus to negotiate with Ankara.
Israel needs enhanced naval capability for the protection of its own EEZ and for the creation of a proper balance of power in the eastern Mediterranean.
“There’s no panic or despair. But a deep sense of betrayal” Turkey’s Syria offensive could displace over a million Kurds, top analyst Jonathan Spyer warns. Believes Kurds will reject Israeli offer of humanitarian aid.
On "Kurdophobia," Refugees and Reviving the National Pact Borders.
What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?
While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”
Katz Demands Foreign Ministry Stop Turkish Subversion in East Jerusalem. Dr. David Koren: Turkey is the most active and important foreign country operating in eastern Jerusalem.
Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
The US, Europe and Israel can force a modification in Erdoğan's conduct on a wide range of issues, including his duplicity on Iran, support for Hamas in Gaza, subversion in Jerusalem, intervention in Libya, aggression towards Cypriot gas explorations, threats to Kurds of Rojava, and repression at home.
Gaza Violence Exacerbates Israel-Turkey Rift. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: At the end of the day, if you are supporting Hamas your relationship with Israel will be problematic.
Turkey launches ‘Blue Homeland’ naval drill. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: The largest naval drill in country's history is a clear message for Cyprus and Greece.
General Amidror: US withdrawal from Syria is a red flagץ Former NSA warns that US pullout from Syria endangers Kurds, empowers Turkey, and sends troubling message to American allies.
Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
Trump Syria pullout ‘blow’ to Tel Aviv: Israeli experts. Dr. Eran Lerman: The move will make anyone who thinks of a coalition with the U.S. in the future move away from the idea.
Trump’s hurried exit from Syria, under pressure from a Turkish threat, will be interpreted by all sides as a strategic defeat, an abandonment and a debacle.
Turkey finds itself at a historic junction where it must decide whether to proceed alone by challenging Israel, Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus – or whether to embrace regional cooperation.
A Fragile Russian-Turkish Cease-fire In Syria’s Idlib. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of JISS: Turkey is eager to exclude Syria from negotiations because it does not recognize the government of al-Assad and does not want to grant it legitimacy by engaging in talks.
Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.
Turkey is turning northern Syria – Jarabulus and Afrin – into the “Turkish Republic of Northern Syria,” just as it has turned northern Cyprus into a Turkish protectorate through military and economic domination.
Ankara is allowing Hamas to continue operating from Turkish territory against Israel. Israel can and should thwart such Turkish violations of the reconciliation agreement between the two countries.
Israel should be defending itself against Erdogan by blocking his Jerusalem incursion, and taking the offensive against Erdogan by impeding his military build-up.
FOREIGN POLICY EXPERT: ISRAEL NEEDS TO RECOGNIZE ITS POWER AND LEVERAGE Interview with JISS's Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Israel is not weak!
After Erdogan’s Victory, What Should Israel Do? Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Israel should work on its relationship with Greece and Cyprus as a counterweight to Turkey.
Prof. Efraim Inbar on Iran, Trump and Turkey Australian Jewish News, 8.6.2018
Turkey, Israel, Syria. Professor Efraim Inbar discusses Turkey and Israel's strategic positions, plus recent developments in Syria.
Turkey is no longer a reliable Western ally. Provision of the F-35 jet would strengthen Erdogan's authoritarian Islamist regime and boost its capabilities for regional mischief.
Israel should ring the alarm bells about Turkish adventurism. Under Erdogan, Turkey has become a dangerous country on the road to authoritarianism.
Former NSC Head Amidror: South Africa And Turkey Not Important for Israel. "The world doesn’t understand difference between a protest in Brussels and a terrorist group using a protest as cover to destroy a military barrier."
“Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn next? And what is the goal of the Turkish campaign?
President Erdogan is taking Turkey in dangerous directions. The conquest of the Kurdish 'Afrin enclave lends momentum to his ambitions. Erdogan must pay a manifest price for leading Turkey towards dictatorship and Islamism.
Emmanuel Navon explains for ARD TV (Germany) how Israel's emergence as a natural gas exporter is transforming its relations with Turkey and with Europe.
How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.
While Israel cannot let Turkish President Erdogan's attacks slide, its response must differentiate between Turkish society and its popular but problematic leader.
