מזרחן, פרשן ומומחה בסוריה, עיראק, קבוצות אסלאמיות רדיקליות וכורדיסטן
ד"ר ג'ונתן ספייר הוא אחד המומחים המערביים\הישראליים המעטים אשר סיירו בצורה מקיפה בסוריה, עיראק וכורדיסטן תוך כדי הקונפליקטים בשנים האחרונות במדינות אלה. מחברם של הספרים Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars (Routledge, 2017) ו-The Transforming Fire: the Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2010). הוא ספייר כותב באופן קבוע בכתב העת היוקרתי Jane's Intelligence Review וכן מפרסם מאמרים בכתבי עת הכוללים את Middle East Quarterly, Foreign Policy וכן פרשנויות בעיתונים Times (הלונדוני)Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Haaretz, Atlantic, Australian, National Post, Globe and Mail, Jerusalem Report, Jerusalem Post. כמו כן הוא מופיע כמומחה לענייני המזה"ת בערוצי טלוויזיה שונים כגון CNN, al-Jazeera, Fox, BBC, Sky ואחרים. בעל תואר דוקטור ביחסים בינלאומיים מ-London School of Economics ותואר שני במזרחנות מ-School of Oriental and African Studies בלונדון. משמש גם כעמית מחקר ב-Middle East Forum בארה"ב.
In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
The lack of a coherent Western strategy for the containment and rollback of Iran in the Middle East in worrying.
The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.
Arab diplomatic efforts unlikely to shift Tehran’s extensive infrastructure.
US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and
now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent the development of any coherent strategy.
Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action in Iraq more complicated than in Syria.
As ever, Iran prefers to avoid direct involvement. But without its backing, support and expertise, the latest Hamas offensive against Israel would have been inconceivable.
Neither Ankara nor Tehran want a strong Iraq, or a strong Syria. On the contrary, the fragmentation of these countries suits both.
A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.
The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.
The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.
The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.
