Lebanon: Whoever You Vote For, Hezbollah Wins
15/05/2018
אין תגובות
The biggest loser in the May 6 elections was the Future Movement of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri.
ארכיון מאמרים
ד"ר יונתן ספייר
סה״כ 18 מאמרים בעברית
מזרחן, פרשן ומומחה בסוריה, עיראק, קבוצות אסלאמיות רדיקליות וכורדיסטן
ד"ר ג'ונתן ספייר הוא אחד המומחים המערביים\הישראליים המעטים אשר סיירו בצורה מקיפה בסוריה, עיראק וכורדיסטן תוך כדי הקונפליקטים בשנים האחרונות במדינות אלה. מחברם של הספרים Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars (Routledge, 2017) ו-The Transforming Fire: the Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2010). הוא ספייר כותב באופן קבוע בכתב העת היוקרתי Jane's Intelligence Review וכן מפרסם מאמרים בכתבי עת הכוללים את Middle East Quarterly, Foreign Policy וכן פרשנויות בעיתונים Times (הלונדוני)Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Haaretz, Atlantic, Australian, National Post, Globe and Mail, Jerusalem Report, Jerusalem Post. כמו כן הוא מופיע כמומחה לענייני המזה"ת בערוצי טלוויזיה שונים כגון CNN, al-Jazeera, Fox, BBC, Sky ואחרים. בעל תואר דוקטור ביחסים בינלאומיים מ-London School of Economics ותואר שני במזרחנות מ-School of Oriental and African Studies בלונדון. משמש גם כעמית מחקר ב-Middle East Forum בארה"ב.
The biggest loser in the May 6 elections was the Future Movement of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri.
Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
The wars in Syria are far from over. Israeli policy has been largely successful in preventing the fire from Syria coming over the border, and this effort should continue. But Iranian entrenchment in Syria complicates matters.
Suspected Israeli strikes hit Iran-linked targets in Syria, escalating regional tensions.
Dr. Jonathan Spyer of JISS: With Israel determined to prevent the “consolidation and entrenchment” of Iranian influence in Syria, “the chances of confrontation between Israel and Iran are quite significant.”
“Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' IN SYRIA WOULD BE BLESSING FOR ASSAD, TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL.
Dr. J. Spyer: Jerusalem remains concerned that the US and its partners are turning a blind eye to Iran's attempts to entrench itself in the country.
Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn next? And what is the goal of the Turkish campaign?
Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.
How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.
Syria: Where Chaos Theory Meets Murphy’s Law.
Dr. Jonathan Spyer: A whole series of other contests that have little to do with internal Syrian dynamics—but which are nonetheless taking place on Syrian soil—have now erupted.
By Charles Bybelezer | The Media Line, February 20, 2018
