In the latest JISS podcast series, Senior Fellow Maj. Gen. (Res.) Yaakov Amidror provides a strategic reckoning two years into the war.

• Recommended further reading: Two Years into the War: Israel’s Strategic Reckoning

He argues that the strategic balance has shifted in Israel’s favor. Iran is no longer the puppet master of a multi-front ring of fire, but a wounded animal that has lost the ability to rebuild its proxies, and is facing a unified US-Israeli front.

Iran appears to understand that any move toward a nuclear breakout will trigger an overwhelming military response. Its ballistic missile production is also being closely monitored as well. 

Regarding Gaza, Amidror assessed that the IDF is under no pressure to rush. While the American attempt to reach a diplomatic solution for Hamas’s disarmament will not likely succeed, when diplomacy hits a dead end, Washington will likely signal Jerusalem to do whatever is needed. This means a renewed, long-term IDF offensive to physically cleanse the Strip of Hamas remnants—a process Amidror estimates could take another nine months of combat. In the interim phase, the US should be given time to try diplomacy, and construction can occur on the Israeli-controlled side of the Yellow Line. 

On the northern front, Amidror analyzed negotiations with the new Syrian leader, Ahmed Al-Shara, examining his enigma status and jihadist background. Any agreement between Israel and Syria could serve as a strategic signal to the Arab world, and specifically to Lebanon. However, Israel will not tolerate massacres of the Druze minority by the new Sunni regime.

In Israel, amid talk of societal polarization, Amidror pointed to the hard data of Israeli resilience. Despite over two years of war, reserve duty turnout remains at over 75% and 80% (and in some units more). Recruitment for combat units among 18-year-olds is soaring above 100%. The younger generation is voting with their feet, proving that despite internal political rifts, Israeli society remains robust and ready to fight.