Lebanon

Asking for too much

The recurrent pattern of asking for more and more - reminiscent of the folk tale about the fisherman's greedy wife - has made a mockery of the ongoing attempt to diplomatically resolve the Israeli-Lebanese EEZ dispute. The negotiations have continued for years, and some in Lebanon understand the need for a negotiated outcome: but Hezbollah might yet again scuttle the deal.

The growing capabilities and the impressive skill of their operators elevate the threat from Iran's unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) from a nuisance to a strategic level on par with Iran's missiles and rockets threat on Israel.

The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.

The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its various militia franchises.

A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.

With US cold shoulder, should Israel now pivot towards France?
Col. Olivier Rafowicz: France’s political interests currently dovetail with Israel’s on multiple issues. Col. Eran Lerman: Israel needs to be more closely coordinated with Paris.

Israel seeks to disrupt Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

Could Lebanon’s first negotiations with Israel in decades lead to normalization?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The talks are a Lebanese development, relating to the economic and political crisis within Lebanon, and do not augur a broader peace relationship.

The talks suggest that when common interests exist, Israel can engage beneficially and pragmatically even with enemies, resulting in de-escalation and mutual benefit.

The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.

Hizbullah, Hamas Chiefs Discuss Israel-UAE Deal
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Ankara is trying to use its ally Hamas to get closer to Hizbullah, to increase its control over Lebanon.

The State of Hezbollah, after the Beirut explosion
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Hezbollah is under pressure

Hezbollah is coming under increased scrutiny in wake of Beirut blast
Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: Hezbollah as too mired in domestic tumult to be able to be interested in a conflict with Israel at this point.

Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman analyzes the Beirut port explosion for the Jewish News Syndicate. (22.08.2020)

Lebanon's domestic and regional woes
Dr. Eran Lerman: Iran is the foreign occupier of Lebanon, through the agency of Hezbollah.

A limited Israeli military operation in Lebanon would strengthen Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah. It also would deepen Iran's sense of defeat and demonstrate Israel's determination to check Iran's malign activity.

Lebanon is a failed state, and its misfortunes are characteristic of a broader regional malaise.

Israel Hopes Beirut Blast will Weaken Hizbullah’s Appetite for War
Dr. Eran Lerman: Public rage in Lebanon could hurt organization’s political standing

The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country's banking system.

Will there be another war with Lebanon amid pandemic?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Hezbollah does not have the appetite right now for starting a war.

Iran’s strategy amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions
Dr. Yossi Mansharof of JISS argues that a reading of some Iranian press may hint at the regime’s complex policy during the tensions.

Hezbollah trying to save face, protect image in Lebanon
Dr. Yossi Mansharof in an interview for Israel Radio/Kan in English

Will war erupt on Israel’s northern border?
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman interview for i24 news

Escalating Tensions versus Hezbollah in Lebanon

Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community's situation. It might favor Hizballah.

This paper reviews the responses of Middle Eastern countries to the spread of the coronavirus and highlights diplomatic and defense implications stemming from the situation. The assessment of JISS fellows is that the coronavirus crisis will not fundamentally change power dynamics in the region or alter the prevailing ambitions and policies of key countries.

The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.

The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s dire economic state.

Will the people succeed in undermining the Iranian plan to spread power across the region?

Tensions on Israel's northern border.
Dr. Eran Lerman speaks to Xinhuanet on the tensions on israel's northern border.

Hizballah today controls the key nodes of power in Lebanon, while allowing the formal structures of the Lebanese state to exist – for its own benefit.

News Analysis: Israel sees Lebanese new gov't formation with caution.
An interview with Yossi Mansharof on the elections in Lebanon and the integration of Hezbollah.

Lebanon has neither the desire nor the ability to address Hezbollah’s threat to its sovereignty. The likelihood of Lebanon suffering severe damage in a war against Israel does not change this situation.

The Folly of Supporting Lebanon’s Military.
Yossi Mansharof: Washington must acknowledge that the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah are allies.

Israel and Lebanon: Dangerous Liaisons.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Relations between Israel and its northern neighbor have become dangerously explosive.

Should a large operation inside Lebanon be considered after Hezbollah's tunnels are successfully neutralized?

Israel Moves to Seal Hezbollah Tunnels at Lebanon Border.
General Amidror: Now the ball is in the Hezbollah court. They can react – and the reaction to their reaction might be devastating.

IRAN'S LEBANESE CONTROL DEMANDS REEVALUATION OF WEST'S SUPPORT FOR BEIRUT.
General Amidror: Hezbollah’s bases will have to be destroyed by the Israeli air force, and there is no tactical way to do so without massive amounts of damage.

Hezbollah’s leadership has come to realize that harsher US sanctions pose a serious threat to the revolutionary regime in Tehran. It will become increasingly difficult for the regime to finance the full spectrum of its revolutionary ambitions. Hezbollah has therefore had to focus on securing its own sources of funding and providing employment for its members and followers through ever-deeper engagement in Lebanon’s economic and financial spheres of activity.

The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.

Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.

The biggest loser in the May 6 elections was the Future Movement of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri.