In the latest JISS podcast, I was joined by Barak Seener, Senior Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, founder of Strategic Intelligentia and host of The Geo Godfather Wars.

Highlights from Barak’s comments:

•  Actors frequently prioritize their ideological or political identity over simple cost-benefit calculations.  
• The international system is not binary and most international players hedge their bets. Saudi Arabia, India, and Turkey routinely balance Western security guarantees with Eastern economic or political ties.
• Israel possesses unparalleled tactical and operational capabilities, serving as a highly agile defense-tech nation. However, these strengths often mask a deeper vulnerability.

• Executing brilliant operational wins, such as decapitating the leadership of Hamas or Hezbollah does not equal a strategic victory if there is no plan to permanently cement the “day after.” Israel’s adversaries are able to reconstitute themselves rapidly.
• To transition from an unconscious geopolitical actor to a deliberate one, Israel must align its national identity with a cohesive deployment of all its policy tools, integrating trade, technology, and defense into a single, forward-looking strategy.
• Like many Western democracies, Israel’s long-term strategic planning is heavily hindered by short political cycles, coalition politics that marked its system of Proportional Representation, shifting ministerial agendas, and civil service gridlock.
• In the Iran war, military strikes alone that decapitates the senior military echelons are critical but insufficient against a decentralized, horizontal adversary.

A true strategy for regime collapse must include:

• A direct communications campaign aimed at the Iranian populace.
• Active coordination and support for fragmented opposition groups.
• Significant financial inducements to encourage senior IRGC and Basij leaders to defect and provide intelligence.
• Strategic engagement with regional secessionist groups.

 For more, tune in into the episode!

Recommended further reading:

• Israel 2048: A Blueprint for a Rising Asymmetric Geopolitical Power

• Regime Collapse in Iran: A Necessity for Regional Stability?