The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.
Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.
Israel should study the strategic consequences of the continuous economic deterioration in Lebanon, with an emphasis on the Shiite community’s situation. It might favor Hizballah.
The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran’s military entrenchment.
Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
