In our latest episode, I was joined by Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a premier expert on Turkish affairs. While the world’s attention is currently fixated on the crisis between the United States and Iran, Dr. Cohen Yanarocak provided a critical look at Turkey’s long-term strategic maneuvers and its vision of leading a new Sunni Islamist bloc.

Turkey’s Calculus on the US-Iran Standoff

Despite historical rivalry and sectarian differences, Ankara views the prospect of an Iranian regime collapse with deep concern. Dr. Cohen Yanarocak highlighted three primary reasons:

1. The Kurdish Question: The disintegration of Iran could lead to Kurdish autonomy or independence (similar to the short-lived Republic of Mahabad), a scenario Turkey fiercely opposes due to its own internal Kurdish dynamics.
2. Refugee Crisis: A full-scale war would likely trigger a refugee influx into Turkey, exacerbating existing economic and social tensions caused by the Syrian civil war. Turkey is reportedly already planning a buffer zone within Iranian territory to manage this potential fallout.
3. Fear of a Pro-Israel Successor: Ankara fears that a post-Ayatollah government in Tehran might be friendly toward Israel and the West, which contradicts Turkey’s current regional interests.

Ultimately, Turkey prefers a weakened Iran, one that keeps Israel and the West distracted, allowing Ankara to expand its own influence without direct confrontation.

The Driving Force: Neo-Ottomanism

Dr. Cohen Yanarocak explained that Turkey’s grand strategy is rooted in “Neo-Ottomanism”—a desire to revive Turkish influence across the former territories of the Ottoman Empire, stretching from the Caucasus and the Black Sea basin to the Middle East and North Africa.

While President Erdoğan is not imposing Sharia law domestically, he is effectively using religion as a tool to legitimize his power, much like the Ottoman Sultans used the Shaykh al-Islām. Internationally, this translates to utilizing the Turkish Directorate of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) to project soft power and the attempt to unite the Sunni Muslim world under Turkish leadership. This ideology is heavily influenced by Turkish institutions that translated and popularized the works of Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood figures like Hassan al-Banna and Sayyid Qutb in Turkey.

The Gaza Strategy: Seeking a “Guarantor” Role

A particularly disturbing element of Turkey’s strategy involves its ambitions in Gaza. Dr. Cohen Yanarocak pointed out that Turkish leaders frequently use the term “guarantor state.”

Drawing a parallel to the 1960 Treaty of Guarantee concerning Cyprus, which Turkey later used as justification for its 1974 invasion, Ankara is attempting to establish itself as a guarantor for the Palestinians. By seeking this status, Turkey aims to elevate its diplomatic standing to match that of the US, and potentially secure a legal pretext for future military intervention or the arming of proxy forces against Israel, similar to its actions in Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Future of Israeli-Turkish Relations

When asked about the prospect of relations normalizing, Dr. Cohen Yanarocak was starkly pessimistic. He argued that the current administration has so deeply poisoned the Turkish public against Israel that any immediate U-turn is impossible.

Furthermore, he does not foresee a change in course even after Erdoğan’s eventual departure. Potential successors, whether from Erdoğan’s inner circle (like Hakan Fidan or Bilal Erdoğan) or from the opposition, will likely adopt an even tougher anti-Israel stance to prove their nationalist credentials and consolidate power.