In the latest JISS podcast, I had the honor of speaking with Andrew Fox, a frontline conflict researcher and former Major in the British Parachute Regiment. With 16 years of service, including three tours in Afghanistan and deployments to Bosnia, Northern Ireland, and the Middle East, Andrew brings a vital, battle-tested perspective to the multi-front conflict we are currently facing.

We dove deep into the tactical realities on the ground versus the international media narrative, the evolving threat of drone warfare, and what Western militaries can learn from the IDF’s experiences.

Highlights: 

The Standoff with Iran: Economic Pressure vs. Regime Resilience

 Andrew notes that while sanctions severely hurt the Iranian regime, they rarely cause an instantaneous collapse. The clock is also ticking for the US due to domestic pressures like gas prices and midterms. However, tactically, the Iranian leadership has been decimated and their capabilities significantly degraded. If the current pressure forces a deal where Iran hands over its enriched uranium, that could be categorized as a major strategic win.

Lebanon: Hezbollah’s Degradation and the FPV Drone Threat

In Lebanon, we are seeing unprecedented direct negotiations between the Lebanese government and Israel. This is a direct result of Israel degrading Hezbollah to the point where the IRGC has had to send in its own commanders to replace Hezbollah’s decimated chain of command.

To secure the north, Israel is successfully degrading Hezbollah’s capability and removing their opportunity to attack by establishing a buffer zone. However, Andrew highlights a critical emerging threat: FPV (First-Person View) drones. As seen in Ukraine, once cheap, mass-produced drones (including fiber-optic models) enter the battlefield, it triggers a deadly cat-and-mouse game. Defeating these drones must be a top priority for the IDF and Western militaries alike.

The Information War and Asymmetric Tactics

Why do terror armies like Hamas and Hezbollah embed themselves in civilian infrastructure? Because it makes military sense for them. Facing Israel’s overwhelming superiority in intelligence, surveillance, and precision strikes, their counter-measure is to go underground and embed into the civilian population.

Andrew describes in detail how these asymmetric armies have doubly weaponized this tactic. By fighting from civilian areas, they survive longer militarily, and when civilian casualties occur, they secure a narrative aimed at demonizing Israel on the global stage. It is a cynical strategy where tactical efforts and media manipulation are designed in sync.

Israel and European states – a complex relationship

Despite the political friction between Israel and Western European nations, there are vital military lessons the UK and NATO must learn from the IDF’s current campaigns:

• Logistics and Munitions: The massive burn rate of artillery and precision munitions early in the war is a wake-up call for Western stockpiles.
  
  
• The D9: The use of heavily armored (and sometimes remote-controlled) D9 bulldozers to clear routes, push logistics, and detonate IEDs is highly applicable to future urban warfare in Europe.
  
  
• Active Protection Systems (APS): Systems like Israel’s Trophy, originally designed to stop anti-tank missiles, have proven effective at defeating FPV drones.

The Global Threat Matrix: Russia, Iran, and Denying Opportunity

We concluded by looking at the broader strategic picture. We are no longer dealing with localized conflicts; we are facing a global axis involving Iran, Russia, and China. 

To prevent a wider escalation across these fronts, Andrew argues that the West must adopt a strategy of denying opportunity. You cannot change the intent of adversaries or rivals, but if your defenses are strong enough, you deny them the capability and opportunity to attack.