US Middle East Policy

The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.

Briefing by Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - October 17, 2021

With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.

Briefing by Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror.

As leaders meet, Jordan finds itself vital to US plans in the region
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The Americans want to enlist Jordan to contribute to stability in Iraq.

If current Mideast violence a test, some experts say Biden is failing
Prof. Efraim Inbar: How long will it take the progressives to affect the Biden administration?

In DC, Israel’s top spy and security wonk face a mission impossible on Iran
Dr. Eran Lerman: They can move the needle a bit, but their trip is unlikely to prevent the Biden administration from barreling towards a deal with Tehran.

By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.

On Biden Administration Middle East Policy
Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman

After Saviz strike, Israel may be in dire straits trying to battle Iran at sea
General Amidror of JISS: The endgame is to make it clear to the Iranians that they cannot strike civilian ships that have a connection to Israel. And if they continue to do that, then Israel knows how to operate against Iran.

Israel-Iran Maritime War Heats Up with Alleged Israeli Attack on IRGC Ship
Omer Dostri of JISS: I see a message to the US here, that Israel will not allow Iranian operations to continue.

US-Jordan defense pact good for Israel, stability in Mideast
Prof. Efraim Inbar: I doubt whether we will see a serious American military presence in Jordan, as the US still wants to disengage from the Middle East.

A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.

The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.

Will a US-Saudi rift affect Israel?
Inbar and Spyer: Biden’s push for human rights will backfire, especially if coupled with U.S. inaction regarding Iran and a return to the failed 2015 nuclear deal.

On Biden Administration policies that will impact Israel
Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman

On US air strikes in Syria
Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman

The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.

The next Israeli government would be well-advised to come-up with its own proposals for improving the life of Palestinians, both to further improve its own regional standing and to meet (some of the) administration’s expectations, in dialogue and partnership.

Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.

What signals is Biden sending about his Middle East policy?
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Early signals have been “a mixed bag,” with some of the actions and statements very worrisome and others more positive.

Many have raised understandable moral qualms (and practical questions) about conduct of war in Yemen. Indeed, the coalition fighting the Houthi uprising should be more attentive to the loss of innocent lives. But allowing Iran’s proxies to win the war in Yemen would have dangerous political and far-reaching strategic consequences for Israel, the region, and US interests.

Establishing coherent US policy regarding brewing conflict in the eastern Mediterranean should be a Biden administration priority. By restraining Erdogan's ambitions, the US can add to stability and rebuild bridges with key European players and traditional US allies. The governments of Israel and Greece, in consultation with Egypt, should work together to advance this perspective in Washington.

A "Clean Return," without ironclad new provisions that strengthen and lengthen the JCPOA, will diminish US clout and destabilize the Mideast.

Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.

Biden's Policies Toward Israel Starkly Different From Trump's, Experts Say
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Biden is a close friend of Israel. His presence in the White House is an opportunity to rehabilitate relations with the Democratic Party.

Experts predict what Israel can expect from new administration
A conference held by JISS and B’nai B’rith International looked at the likely foreign policy priorities of the Biden administration, ranging from COVID-19 to climate change and Iran.

Can Biden move Qatar away from Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Qatar spends enormous amounts of money in systematic support for the nefarious activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its branches all over the world.

Biden’s foreign-policy appointments and what they might mean for Israel
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Tony Blinken is “on record” demanding an extension of the sunset clauses in the JCPOA

Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, "stronger and longer" deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran's present course.

As the largest arms supplier to the Middle East, America plays a critical role in ensuring that its sales uphold and do not adversely affect Israel’s security.

Doha, alongside Ankara, is undermining American interests in the Middle East.

Iraq is ripe for a nationalist, public-service driven politics where good governance is more important than identity. If Iraqi leaders, with US support, can move the country in a new direction, Iran’s ability to take advantage of Iraqi state weakness to threaten Israel will be drastically curtailed.

How fear of a US retreat from the Mideast is driving Netanyahu toward annexation
Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: “American hegemony is crumbling before our eyes.”

A strong Turkish foothold in Libya threatens the free flow of energy resources from the Eastern Mediterranean basin to Europe as planned by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Italy and Israel.

As calls rise for the US to ease sanctions on Tehran, why is Netanyahu silent?
General Amidror: “Israel attacked targets in Syria yesterday, according to foreign sources. The State of Israel continues to do what it needs to do, without talking, and the Americans do whatever they think is right in terms of sanctions.”

Only an integrated political, military and economic strategy targeting the Iranian system in all its aspects, with a long-term commitment to local allies and the mission, can succeed.

Bibi's Ally Says Kushner Stabbed Netanyahu in the Back With Peace Plan.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The plan addresses the most Israeli concerns and appeals to the mainstream in Israeli politics.

Those who encourage the Palestinians to reject the deal of the century do not serve the cause of peace.
Selon l’universitaire israélien Emmanuel Navon, proche du Likoud, le plan de Donald Trump pour le Proche Orient n’interdirait pas la création d’un Etat palestinien digne de ce nom.

Europe ought to press the Palestinians to negotiate with Israel for a demilitarized state on a territory similar in size to the pre-1967 West Bank and Gaza Strip and whose economy will be rebuilt and boosted by a $50 billion investment.

Trump administration’s Mideast proposal receives subtle support from Muslim nations.
Dr. Joshua Krasna: Bahrain’s support for the plan is a “trial balloon” for the Saudis.

For first time in history, US plan for Mideast peace puts Israeli concerns at forefront.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: I don’t see peace coming out of the plan, but in the long scheme of things, it is more realistic.

Israel should act to implement the Trump Plan and reap its early rewards, because it transforms the Mideast peace paradigm. Most importantly, the plan reflects, and can serve as a platform for, Israeli consensus on the Palestinian issue.

Even if the Palestinians reject Trump's peace plan, it still serves their long-term interests. False, undeliverable expectations – based on the assumption that "everybody knows" what Israel will be forced to concede – eventually need to give way to a more realistic paradigm, which in turn may lead to a better life for both sides.

Most of the regional players are wary an escalation between the US and Iran, a conflict which would be conducted across the Middle East and will have wide implications. If Iranian miscalculation leads President Trump to commit to a significant campaign against Tehran, countries wary of Iranian influence could change their posture, and become more explicitly in line with American positions and interests.

The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.

By changing the discourse about settlements, the Trump administration is laying the groundwork for realistic negotiation. Even if you think that Israeli settlement should be rolled-back in the context of a sensible peace arrangement, applying the demonizing epithet “illegal” makes for a destructive narrative that distances, not advances, peace.

“There’s no panic or despair. But a deep sense of betrayal”
Turkey’s Syria offensive could displace over a million Kurds, top analyst Jonathan Spyer warns. Believes Kurds will reject Israeli offer of humanitarian aid.

After Trump abandons Kurds, Israel knows it can’t rely on anyone.
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Trump’s step is a “moral outrage.”

Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”

Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.

Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.

American withdrawal from the Middle East must be accompanied by steps that reduce the general impression of a weak US going home in defeat. President Trump should bomb Iran’s nuclear installations.

The Trump Plan Partially Revealed.
An interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar.

Iranians view Trump as ‘tougher’ than Obama, but will it push them to more extreme actions?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Trump is trying to intimidate Iran to come to the negotiating table.

Instability in Jerusalem bodes poorly for Trump's peace plan.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Israel's transitional government is unlikely to make any significant decisions on the peace process without a clear mandate from the public.

Did Trump's Jerusalem Embassy Move Help Peace Prospects?
Trump moved the embassy under the pretense that the Palestinians had to recognize 'a reality' — one which dictates that the city belongs to Israel. Did this move help advance the peace process in the long run? Mitvim Institute Director of Development Gayle Meyers and Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security founder Eran Lerman debate.

Of annexation and Trump’s peace plan, what’s next on the post-Israeli election agenda?
Prof. Inbar: Annexation of the West Bank or parts of the West Bank has been on the agenda of every Israeli government, including Labor-led governments because want the settlement blocs as part of Israel.

The guaranteed failure of the “deal of the century” is an opportunity for Israel to open the Americans’ eyes to the harsh and complicated reality in our region and lead them to support the strategy of managing the conflict and wait for better times.

Netanyahu’s True Colors? No to Palestinian State, Yes to Annexing Parts of West Bank.
Audio interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar.

Trump’s landmark Golan decision asserts the law of diminishing returns: Arabs who refuse to make peace with Israel lose rights and assets as time goes forward. Mahmoud Abbas: Take notice.

Experts Divided Over US Decision on Golan Heights.
Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Israel's de facto control of the Golan is not in doubt, and there is no likelihood in the foreseeable future of any serious attempt by any force to change this situation.

American recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights.
Professor Efraim Inbar: ‘Netanyahu will benefit from Trump’s decision - not clear how much, it’s a close race’

Whatever paradigm for peace is tabled by the Trump administration, no end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is in sight. Managing the conflict for the long term – a somewhat fuzzy approach in need of constant reevaluation – is the only realistic way to do some good in the Israeli-Palestinian arena.

It is inconceivable that the Trump plan will parrot the stale Clinton/Obama parameters of yesteryear or force any “peace paradigm” on Israel.

Any government elected in Israel will undoubtedly agree to discuss the plan with the Americans.

General Amidror: US withdrawal from Syria is a red flagץ
Former NSA warns that US pullout from Syria endangers Kurds, empowers Turkey, and sends troubling message to American allies.

Like Obama, Trump is eroding American credibility.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: The US pullout from Syria is both a strategic and a moral mistake.

Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.

The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.

Trump Syria pullout ‘blow’ to Tel Aviv: Israeli experts.
Dr. Eran Lerman: The move will make anyone who thinks of a coalition with the U.S. in the future move away from the idea.

Trump’s hurried exit from Syria, under pressure from a Turkish threat, will be interpreted by all sides as a strategic defeat, an abandonment and a debacle.

Liberman at JISS: US Sanctions Will Reduce Iran’s Terror Financing Former NSC Chief Yaakov Amidror says Russia will be embarrassed when IDF overcomes S-300 in Syria.

Trump’s wavering on one-state or two-states leaves many in a state of confusion.
Middle East analysts say there is growing skepticism around the world of the Palestinians’ ability even to create and sustain an independent state. Prof. Efraim Inbar: Sometimes ambiguity serves us better than a clear solution.”

In the Mideast of today, the US is largely irrelevant, when it is not disruptive, and is certainly not providing clear leadership. With the current disarray in DC, it does not look like this will change any time soon.

The US can and should develop a coherent region-wide strategy, involving US allies including Israel, to impede Iran’s ability to continue developing in ways detrimental to the region’s security. However, Iran is proficient in the practice of using proxies and paramilitary methods, as well as in the combination of paramilitary and political struggle. Its response to a US-led strategy to contain and roll back their influence is likely to focus on these areas.

The recent agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is a significant blow to Iran. America seeks either regime change or a new nuclear deal on better terms.

The Trump Peace Plan is Coming
Prof. Efraim Inbar: They’re quite serious about getting a peace plan through. But I don’t believe the Palestinians will accept it.

Prof. Efraim Inbar on Iran, Trump and Turkey
Australian Jewish News, 8.6.2018

Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.

Israelis Mark Jerusalem Day Amid New Political Reality.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Move of the US embassy to Jerusalem marks a turning point in the city’s history. "It will be remembered as a major event.”

America set to inaugurate embassy in Jerusalem.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The move introduces a dose of realism into the international discourse on Jerusalem.

‘America Is Back’: U.S., Israeli Right Plan Next Move
Fresh off Iran deal and Jerusalem embassy wins, CPAC holds an illuminating call. Lerman and Weinberg from JISS say that the US and Israel are on the same page, with a sober understanding of the challenges ahead.

The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.

Trump has ‘walked back’ vow of pullout in Syria, experts say.
Dr. Eran Leman: Trump will allow US forces to remain, but only if the French and Saudis agree to share the burden.

Israeli analysts question Trump’s Syrian troop pullout push.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: This air strike was the bare minimum. Assad will not be deterred by this.

'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' IN SYRIA WOULD BE BLESSING FOR ASSAD, TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL.
Dr. J. Spyer: Jerusalem remains concerned that the US and its partners are turning a blind eye to Iran's attempts to entrench itself in the country.

Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.

The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran.

SAUDIS PUBLICLY OPPOSE U.S. EXITING SYRIA WHILE ISRAEL OBJECTS QUIETLY
Col. Lerman: US withdrawal from Syria would have very negative consequences for Israel and the region

Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.

Former Israeli and U.S. top diplomats express admiration, caution on embassy move. Prof. Efraim Inbar: The move is historic justice.

Harper and Pence have offered moral and spiritual leadership for the world. Their momentous Knesset speeches were epoch-making events.

Palestinians ramp up feud with the US. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not the main concern in the region. JNS 24.1.2018

If the United States wants to disengage from the Middle East it should do so with a bang. The address for such a forceful demonstration is clear: the Iranian nuclear program.

UNGA cannot enjoy the best of two worlds with complete impunity. Interview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon on the Jerusalem vote. i24news, 21.12.2017

'Thunderous silence in the Arab world'. Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar. INN, 20.12.2017

Trump está entre o pragmatismo e a imprudência em Jerusalém. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar.

US recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital would correct a historical anomaly. Comment by Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman

Recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital is the right thing to do. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Emmanuel Navon

Threats of violence over Jerusalem amount to a “toy gun”. Comment by Col. (res.) Eran Lerman

Frustration and fury among Arabs at Trump's Jerusalem declaration. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar

Trump Calls Jerusalem Plan Step Toward Peace, but It Puts Mideast on Edge. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar

Pushing-back against Palestinian denialism and global defamation of Israel.

The Arab League’s Chairman, Ahmed Abul Gheit, has warned President Trump that recognizing Jerusalem as Israel’s capital would do a disservice to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as well as ignite violence in the Middle-East. Given the absence of a peace process and given the abundance of violence in the Middle-East, Mr. Aboul-Gheit’s warning does not even pass the laughing test.