Hezbollah

Asking for too much

The recurrent pattern of asking for more and more - reminiscent of the folk tale about the fisherman's greedy wife - has made a mockery of the ongoing attempt to diplomatically resolve the Israeli-Lebanese EEZ dispute. The negotiations have continued for years, and some in Lebanon understand the need for a negotiated outcome: but Hezbollah might yet again scuttle the deal.

Airborne Arms Race

The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.

One of the issues that must be dealt with before the Iranian nuclear program is removing the threat of Hezbollah missiles.

Sensing a shift in power dynamic, Iran steps up shadow war with Israel
Col. Eran Lerman: Tehran and Hezbollah are trying to get a read on Israel’s new leadership. Bennett and Lapid are being tested.

A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.

The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.

Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.

With US cold shoulder, should Israel now pivot towards France?
Col. Olivier Rafowicz: France’s political interests currently dovetail with Israel’s on multiple issues. Col. Eran Lerman: Israel needs to be more closely coordinated with Paris.

Experts say Iran likely to delay retaliation against Israel for assassinated nuclear scientist
Prof. Efraim Inbar: It is wrong to assume that Iran will retaliate immediately.

US election results could trigger Hezbollah
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Hezbollah wants to show activity: The long struggle with Israel.

Could Lebanon’s first negotiations with Israel in decades lead to normalization?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The talks are a Lebanese development, relating to the economic and political crisis within Lebanon, and do not augur a broader peace relationship.

The current political situation in Lebanon is very problematic. Hizbullah enjoys full freedom of action in a country which long ago became dysfunctional. Hence the importance of lending support to the French effort to bring about systemic change in the Lebanese confessional order. Further descent into chaos and/or growing intervention by Turkey would be even more dangerous for Israel.

Hizbullah, Hamas Chiefs Discuss Israel-UAE Deal
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Ankara is trying to use its ally Hamas to get closer to Hizbullah, to increase its control over Lebanon.

The State of Hezbollah, after the Beirut explosion
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Hezbollah is under pressure

Hezbollah is coming under increased scrutiny in wake of Beirut blast
Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: Hezbollah as too mired in domestic tumult to be able to be interested in a conflict with Israel at this point.

Lebanon's domestic and regional woes
Dr. Eran Lerman: Iran is the foreign occupier of Lebanon, through the agency of Hezbollah.

A limited Israeli military operation in Lebanon would strengthen Israeli deterrence against Hezbollah. It also would deepen Iran's sense of defeat and demonstrate Israel's determination to check Iran's malign activity.

Lebanon is a failed state, and its misfortunes are characteristic of a broader regional malaise.

Israel Hopes Beirut Blast will Weaken Hizbullah’s Appetite for War
Dr. Eran Lerman: Public rage in Lebanon could hurt organization’s political standing

The Trump administration has realized that in order to wound Hezbollah on a profound level the organization must be disjoined from the Lebanese economy, with an emphasis on the country's banking system.

Will there be another war with Lebanon amid pandemic?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Hezbollah does not have the appetite right now for starting a war.

Iran’s strategy amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions
Dr. Yossi Mansharof of JISS argues that a reading of some Iranian press may hint at the regime’s complex policy during the tensions.

Hezbollah trying to save face, protect image in Lebanon
Dr. Yossi Mansharof in an interview for Israel Radio/Kan in English

Will war erupt on Israel’s northern border?
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman interview for i24 news

Escalating Tensions versus Hezbollah in Lebanon

Germany's decision is an important step in the international effort against Hezbollah. It will hamper the criminal network and terrorist activities of Hezbollah in Europe and even in Lebanon. Hezbollah should be outlawed across Europe.

Germany bans all of Hezbollah's activities
Dr. Emanuel Navon comments on Germany’s ban of all Hezbollah’s activities.

Ex-NSC chief Amidror: IDF will have to destroy Hezbollah ‘beast’.
Amidror of JISS: But let’s keep ‘cautious’ Nasrallah around; ‘He lives in a basement, why eliminate him?’

Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.

Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.

Israeli town knows conflict with Iran-linked militants, hopes more is not to come.
Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Hezbollah does not want to drag Lebanon into another war with Israel.

Israel successfully thwarted Hezbollah’s and Iran’s attempts to launch suicide drones from the Syrian village of Aqraba, located some 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) from Israel’s border, at vital targets inside the country on Aug. 24. And yet, the transnational Shiite composition of the terrorist squad behind the attempt could portend what we might expect in

Tensions on Israel's northern border.
Dr. Eran Lerman speaks to Xinhuanet on the tensions on israel's northern border.

How Dangerous is Hizballah now?
Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Yossi Mansharof.

Based in Lebanon but entrenched in Latin America, Hezbollah helps Iran spread global terrorism.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: The Trump administration is determined to fight the Iranian and Hezbollah presence in South America.

Hizballah today controls the key nodes of power in Lebanon, while allowing the formal structures of the Lebanese state to exist – for its own benefit.

The Iraqi Shi'ite militias form a single, numerous and increasingly able component of the military and paramilitary assets available to Iran in its efforts. They substantially increase the scope for Iranian disruption in the region, and may significantly increase Iranian capabilities in the event of a war on Israel’s northern front

Lebanon has neither the desire nor the ability to address Hezbollah’s threat to its sovereignty. The likelihood of Lebanon suffering severe damage in a war against Israel does not change this situation.

The Folly of Supporting Lebanon’s Military.
Yossi Mansharof: Washington must acknowledge that the Lebanese Armed Forces and Hezbollah are allies.

The Shi'ite militia threat isn't a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.

Should a large operation inside Lebanon be considered after Hezbollah's tunnels are successfully neutralized?

Israel Moves to Seal Hezbollah Tunnels at Lebanon Border.
General Amidror: Now the ball is in the Hezbollah court. They can react – and the reaction to their reaction might be devastating.

IRAN'S LEBANESE CONTROL DEMANDS REEVALUATION OF WEST'S SUPPORT FOR BEIRUT.
General Amidror: Hezbollah’s bases will have to be destroyed by the Israeli air force, and there is no tactical way to do so without massive amounts of damage.

The Lebanese army should be treated as a hostile entity, its camouflage should be stripped away, and the American administration should be supplied with conclusive evidence of the multi-faceted cooperation between it and Hezbollah.

Hezbollah's Reign of Terror: From Beirut And Beyond. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar, The Jerusalem Post, 21.1.2018