In the latest episode, Col. (Ret.) Dr. Eran Lerman offers a pensive assessment of Israel’s national and strategic situations. Despite the cessation of high intensity active combat, the return of almost all hostages, and economically encouraging signs, Israel faces a strange lull, a period marked by unresolved strategic challenges and deep domestic complexity, he says.

Read Dr. Lerman’s analysis, A Strange Lull, here in the Jerusalem Strategic Tribune. 

Despite the end of the two-year war and signs of international normalization, Lerman notes that critical issues remain unresolved. The national mood is clouded by converging domestic crises.

Externally, despite the success of Operation Rising Lion against Iran, the Islamic Republic remains the primary concern. It continues to defy UN resolutions on ballistic missiles and may attempt to salvage its nuclear program to break out toward a bomb.

Hezbollah has been deeply degraded with its leadership decimated (including in recent strikes). But it refuses to disarm. Lerman warns that another round of fighting may be necessary to force disarmament, as the Lebanese government is unable to do so alone.

In Gaza, Lerman challenges the assumption that an immediate IDF entry into Gaza City; In Syria, he notes that Israel is walking a tightrope between the new Syrian government and minority groups (Druze, Kurds). Lerman classifies Turkey not as an enemy yert, but as a risk. He expresses extreme concern over Erdogan’s antisemitic rhetoric and potential expansionism. Israel must draw a clear red line to prevent Turkey from overrunning Kurdish areas (Rojava) in northern Syria.

Domestically, he notes, lessons of October 7 have ended the debate over a “small, smart army.” Lerman highlights Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” plan—allocating 350 billion shekels over the next decade to build an independent military-industrial base, reducing reliance on American supplies.