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Video briefing by Dr. Jonathan Spyer (17.09.2020)
Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran's presence in Syria.
Ankara's military interventions in Iraq, Syria and Libya as well as its growing presence in the eastern Mediterranean constitutes a radical change in Turkish foreign policy. Its recent success in Libya demonstrates Ankara’s regional heft. Turkey’s next intervention is probably in Yemen.
A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The US and Israel are “on the same page” when it comes to the Iranian military presence on Syrian territory.
There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.
This paper reviews the responses of Middle Eastern countries to the spread of the coronavirus and highlights diplomatic and defense implications stemming from the situation. The assessment of JISS fellows is that the coronavirus crisis will not fundamentally change power dynamics in the region or alter the prevailing ambitions and policies of key countries.
Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.
Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.
The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.
New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.
It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran's military entrenchment.
The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.
Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.
After Trump abandons Kurds, Israel knows it can’t rely on anyone. Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: Trump’s step is a “moral outrage.”
Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.
Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”
Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
On "Kurdophobia," Refugees and Reviving the National Pact Borders.
What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?
While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.
With the regional focus elsewhere, violence in Syria grinds on. International backers of the various enclaves have a greater say in the direction of events than do their Syrian clients.
The Golan Heights is Israel’s best northern defense line, especially since Iranian forces have moved into Syria. US recognition of Israel’s sovereignty on the Golan along with Israel’s military superiority ensure a secure border.
The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.
Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.
Israel has not fully deterred Iranian aggression in Syria. Prof. Efraim Inbar: Iran still remains determined to open a second front against Israel in Syria.
One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
Israel Confirms Attacks on Iranian Targets in Syria. Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror :“If you want to make clear to the other side that you are determined to prevent something, either you escalate the operation, or you say in public I’m doing it, meaning I’m ready to take the risk”.
'Israel will continue to react to military entrenchment by Iran' Israel has carried out airstrikes on Iranian targets in the vicinity of the Syrian capital Damascus. The Israeli Defense Forces have confirmed the military operation in an tweet earlier this morning. Radio Sputnik discussed the development with Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies.
General Amidror: US withdrawal from Syria is a red flagץ Former NSA warns that US pullout from Syria endangers Kurds, empowers Turkey, and sends troubling message to American allies.
How critical are American boots on the ground in Syria for Israel? General Amidror: “Declaring Israeli sovereignty over the Golan won’t help us in acting against the Iranians, but it won’t stop us from acting against the Iranians.”
Like Obama, Trump is eroding American credibility. Dr. Emmanuel Navon: The US pullout from Syria is both a strategic and a moral mistake.
Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.
The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.
Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.
Trump Syria pullout ‘blow’ to Tel Aviv: Israeli experts. Dr. Eran Lerman: The move will make anyone who thinks of a coalition with the U.S. in the future move away from the idea.
Trump’s hurried exit from Syria, under pressure from a Turkish threat, will be interpreted by all sides as a strategic defeat, an abandonment and a debacle.
Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.
The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.
A Fragile Russian-Turkish Cease-fire In Syria’s Idlib. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of JISS: Turkey is eager to exclude Syria from negotiations because it does not recognize the government of al-Assad and does not want to grant it legitimacy by engaging in talks.
Poll: 91% of Israelis favor strikes on Iranian assets in Syria. Some 77% of respondents believe Israel must pursue hard-line policies to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies poll finds. It also finds 57% are pleased with how PM Netanyahu is handling the Iranian threat.
Israel’s opposition to Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon is twofold: To prevent Iran from building a beachhead against Israel through its proxies on Israel’s borders, and to impede development of Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities. Israel is absolutely determined and prepared to act forcefully against Iran, which could lead to a full-scale war. Israel must win this struggle against Iran, one way or another.
Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it's not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
No Matter Who Wins the Syrian Civil War, Israel Loses. General Amidror: “We cannot do everything, but we can do a lot to force the Iranians to decide if they are ready to pay the price” for their intervention in Syria.
Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.
Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.
Syria in Gaza, Without the Russians. Dr. Eran Lerman: The Gaza Strip is a microcosm of what is happening throughout the region - a reflection of the broader conflicts throughout the Middle East.
With an eye on Syria, Israel seeks broader truce in Gaza. General Amidror: Israel needs to focus on the real issue: Iran in Syria, not on Hamas.
JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
One hundred kilometers between war and peace in Syria? General Amidror: Confronting Iran in Syria now is preferable than allowing the Islamic Republic to build up its military capability in Syria on par with that of Hizbullah's in Lebanon.
The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.
It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.
Concerns Raised Southern Syrian Regime Offensive May Spill Over to Israel Lerman and Boms of JISS: Will Israel abandon its allies?
on the nexus between Syria, Iran, Russia and Israel Dr Jonathan Spyer discusses how the interests of Russia, Iran and Israel are influencing the situation in Syria as the civil war draws to an end.
Israel may soon face a dilemma. The "arrangement" with Russia as to the future of Syria may stave-off an Iranian presence but will pose an existential danger to the groups of rebels near the border – groups which have worked closely with the IDF to prevent direct friction with hostile elements on the line of contact. It is vital that the solutions to this challenge demonstrate to future partners that Israel does not turn its back on those who have assisted it facing a common threat.
Turkey, Israel, Syria. Professor Efraim Inbar discusses Turkey and Israel's strategic positions, plus recent developments in Syria.
Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.
It's not an Assad victory — it's a frozen conflict.
Israel girds for Tehran’s revenge as the price of getting Iran out of Syria General Amidror: “We let Hezbollah amass 120,000 missiles in Lebanon. We will not make the same mistake in Syria.”
The wars in Syria are far from over. Israeli policy has been largely successful in preventing the fire from Syria coming over the border, and this effort should continue. But Iranian entrenchment in Syria complicates matters.
Suspected Israeli strikes hit Iran-linked targets in Syria, escalating regional tensions. Dr. Jonathan Spyer of JISS: With Israel determined to prevent the “consolidation and entrenchment” of Iranian influence in Syria, “the chances of confrontation between Israel and Iran are quite significant.”
Trump has ‘walked back’ vow of pullout in Syria, experts say. Dr. Eran Leman: Trump will allow US forces to remain, but only if the French and Saudis agree to share the burden.
Israeli analysts question Trump’s Syrian troop pullout push. Prof. Efraim Inbar: This air strike was the bare minimum. Assad will not be deterred by this.
“Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
The situation in Syria Dr. Emmanuel Navon
recent air-strikes against targets in Syria following chemical attacks in Douma and what it means for Israel and the wider region. Dr. Eran Lerman
'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' IN SYRIA WOULD BE BLESSING FOR ASSAD, TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL. Dr. J. Spyer: Jerusalem remains concerned that the US and its partners are turning a blind eye to Iran's attempts to entrench itself in the country.
Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran.
With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran's actions in Syria.
SAUDIS PUBLICLY OPPOSE U.S. EXITING SYRIA WHILE ISRAEL OBJECTS QUIETLY Col. Lerman: US withdrawal from Syria would have very negative consequences for Israel and the region
Ex-Security Official: Israel Seeks to Avoid Russian Interests in Syria. Former NSC head Yaakov Amidror said that Russia "can't complain" if Israel targets Iranians in Syria.
Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.
All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn next? And what is the goal of the Turkish campaign?
Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
With Iran operating in Syria, Israel girds itself for 'First Northern War' General Amidror: Israel will have to face two fronts at the same time: one in Syria, one in Lebanon CBC News, 01.03.18
How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.
Syria: Where Chaos Theory Meets Murphy’s Law. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: A whole series of other contests that have little to do with internal Syrian dynamics—but which are nonetheless taking place on Syrian soil—have now erupted. By Charles Bybelezer | The Media Line, February 20, 2018
Iran, Deeply Embedded in Syria, Expands ‘Axis of Resistance’ Gen. Amidror: “Israel face not only quantities of Hezbollah missiles, but the threat to vulnerable strategic sites.” By Ben Hubbard, Isabel Kershner and Anne Barnard, The New York Times, Feb. 19, 2018
A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.
On Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
An interview with Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror about Israel's strategy vs. Russia and Iran in Syria, and about the launch of the institute.
