In this latest episode of the podcast, I was joined by Brig. Gen. (Res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, JISS Director, to discuss the U.S. – Iran standoff, and the Gazan arena. 

Key Takeaways:

• Kuperwasser notes that in the efforts to reach an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, both sides are putting forward all kinds of demands that just don’t match each other at this time. 
• The Iranians insist they will not discuss ballistic missiles or support for proxies, while the Trump administration cannot accept a deal that is less than the JCPOA, which Trump has previously called one of the worst deals.
• Kuperwasser stated that the only flexibility the Iranians are truly willing to show is accepting limitations on the level of uranium enrichment for a limited period of time (a couple of years).
• I asked Kuperwasser about his view on prospects of an agreement that could include “tacit” quiet clauses – tune in for his answer. 
• Kuperwasser also assessed that the Iranian regime believes the main threat to its survival comes from the Iranian people, not external military strikes.
• The regime operates under the impression that the crackdowns on January 8th and 9th created the necessary deterrence to keep people off the streets.
• The role of Iran’s proxies has shifted; since they failed to deter attacks on nuclear facilities in June, their new message is that they will only fully activate if the regime’s survival is threatened.
• Time is playing on Israel’s side regarding Iran, as the economic conditions there worsen and the regime lacks a solution for the internal dissatisfaction.

Gaza:

• Kuperwasser believes voluntary disarmament by Hamas is not going to happen and that Israel will likely have to resume military operations to disarm it.
• A “Day After” plan exists involving a technocratic government and an international Indonesian force, but this can only materialize if Hamas is removed first.
• Deradicalization of Gazans must be part of any day-after plan to avoid the mistake of simply rebuilding for those filled with jihadist indoctrination against Israel.
• The involvement of Qatar and Turkey in the “Board of Peace” is problematic because they use humanitarian support to promote their Islamist ideology – but they played a role in striking the ceasefire, and there are “no free lunches.”

While there is likely no formal understanding linking the Iranian and Gaza fronts, the reality dictates that Iran is the priority due to the massive U.S. military deployment currently in the region.