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A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed, also on Iranian soil. The strike on the UAV fleet at Kermanshah and the assassination of Colonel Khodai in Tehran were the first manifestations of this new approach.
Iran pushed Turkey into Israel's arms
Don’t Travel to Turkey, Israel Warns Citizens Amid Alleged Threat From Iran
The Growing Iranian Threat Against Israeli Tourists in Turkey
Iran at top of agenda during Bennett’s surprise trip to UAE, say observers
Israel's travel warning to Turkey amid the Iranian threat
Ex-national security adviser says fresh Israeli policy raised the stakes for Iran
IRGC Stays on US Terror List after Israeli Pressure
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.
Not “business as usual”: The Chinese military’s visit to Iran
America’s ‘Plan B’ in case Iran talks fail not ‘well-formulated enough’
What is ‘Plan B’ for Israel or America if Iran nuclear deal goes unsigned?
A proactive approach against Iran’s proxies is needed.
It is time to revive the spirit of Ben-Gurion’s famous dictum from the days of WWII regarding the stance toward the British: “We will fight the war as if there were no White Paper, and we will fight the White Paper as if there were no war.” This makes sense concerning Israel’s dilemma towards the US in the context of the renewal of the JCPOA.
A network of personalities and organizations in Russia can be said to be directly or indirectly promoting the interests of Iran in Russia in various fields. However, Russia and Iran are not allies and treat each other with considerable suspicion. This is a constraint for the Iranian lobbying effort.
US obsession with Palestinians and appeasement of Iran dampened Negev Summit
Interview: Will Negev Summit Curb Iran’s ‘Audacious Demands?’
Historic Negev Summit unites Israel and four Arab states against Iran, ‘irritating’ US policies
On the negotiations between world powers and Iran over a new nuclear deal
Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations
Iran’s Apparent Supply of Combat Drones to Venezuela Highlights Terrorism Risks
Israel Warns World Powers Not to Bend to Iran's Demands
Airborne Arms Race
Understanding the Russia-Iran-Israel Triangle
As Tehran invests efforts to improve relations with Russia, Israel will have to maintain a dialogue with Moscow to safeguard its military and diplomatic freedom of action.
China could learn that US determination is melting away, and its threats can be ignored. An attack on Taiwan could follow.
Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is therefore vital that both the US and Israel offer support for the UAE's cause.
Israeli researchers: Iran nuclear breakout could occur ‘within a space of weeks,’ regional cooperation necessary
Iran’s UAVs tip the balance of power in the Middle East
The growing capabilities and the impressive skill of their operators elevate the threat from Iran's unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) from a nuisance to a strategic level on par with Iran's missiles and rockets threat on Israel.
Re-designating the Houthi movement as a terrorist organization after the drone attack on the UAE is imperative. This, along with overt support for the UAE, would deliver a sharp message and likely have a beneficial effect on Iranian conduct in Vienna.
US-Israel gaps on Iran remain very large, Israeli observers warn
Iran nuclear talks resume in Vienna
Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman on Iran's nuclear program
The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.
The Iran talks are likely going nowhere
Iran uses uranium enrichment as leverage on the EU and US to get concessions.
Congress takes aim at Iranian drone issue as concerns mount
Israel Presses Military Option on Iran, as Nuclear Talks Appear to Crumble
Israel, the US and the Iranian nuclear project: Back to basics
It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.
Lapid’s Iran approach seems to be paying off with Western allies… for now
Iran stalling in talks as it ups ante on nuclear program, say experts
From Tehran’s perspective, the goals are lifting the sanctions and securing immunity from military attacks.
A briefing by expert of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
Iran is not leaving Syria anytime soon
Why is Iran returning to the negotiating table?Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror's JISS article reprinted in Arutz 7
Why is Iran returning to the negotiating table?Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror's JISS article reprinted in JNS
Why is Iran returning to the negotiating table?Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror's JISS article reprinted in Israel Hayom
The American hope for the resumption of the talks, and the talks themselves, give the Iranians more freedom of action. They restrict US activity in response to mounting provocations.
What makes Israel "Iran's arch-enemy": How the Sunni-Shiite divide became a revolutionary mission
Report: Israel Military Readies For Iran ConfrontationInterview with Olivier Rafowicz
Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar on IranInterview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
Israel plays center stage in Azerbaijan-Iran tensionsDr. Eran Lerman's JISS article cited
Briefing by Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - October 17, 2021
The way Tehran uses military intimidation, as well as terror by proxy and other means of threatening regional players, must become a factor in the formulation of Western policy towards Iran in this decisive period.
What are Israel’s Options against Iran’s Nuclear Program?Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
With the help of American Jewry, a sturdy foundation of support for Israel-US ties needs to be rebuilt based upon traditional bipartisan commitment. This will enable Israel to engage effectively with the Biden Administration and Congress on the Iranian challenge.
Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel's opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.
Nuclear Iran in a month, regional conflict in two?Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman: The progression of Tehran’s nuclear program has significantly quickened in the last six months. Together with the effective removal of international supervision, the Iranian position has substantially changed.
On IAEA talks with Iran Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman
In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.
The dour forecasts regarding Lebanon’s future are based on fundamental facts that cannot be amended: A corrupt and rotten government and the dominance of Hezbollah. Under these circumstances, a possible alternative to current Israeli policy may be to reinforce the role of Syrian patronage, which has been undermined since 2005.
Bennett’s mission is to emphasize the American interest in the region and present Israel’s capacity to help in attaining it.
Ra’isi is an absolute ideological and psychological clone of Khamenei.
Iran working systematically to build serious cyber-attack capabilitiesCol. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni: Revelations about malign plans by Tehran’s leaders serve as the latest confirmation of how seriously the Islamic Republic takes cyber warfare.
Sensing a shift in power dynamic, Iran steps up shadow war with IsraelCol. Eran Lerman: Tehran and Hezbollah are trying to get a read on Israel’s new leadership. Bennett and Lapid are being tested.
The lack of a coherent Western strategy for the containment and rollback of Iran in the Middle East in worrying.
Has Russian Policy Changed Regarding Israeli Targeting of Iranian Bases in Syria? Interview with Micky Aharonson
Arab diplomatic efforts unlikely to shift Tehran’s extensive infrastructure.
On the Iranian Nuclear ThreatVideo briefing by Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman (and others) for the Alma Research and Education Center. (June 15, 2021)
On Iranian nuclear sites under attack Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
Netanyahu criticizes new Israeli government over Iran Prof. Efraim Inbar: Promising the US “no surprises” is not always in the best interest of Israel.
On the exposure of secret Iranian nuclear facilities Interview with Micky Aharonson
Can Hamas and Iran claim victory in Gaza?Interview with Miki Aharonson
As ever, Iran prefers to avoid direct involvement. But without its backing, support and expertise, the latest Hamas offensive against Israel would have been inconceivable.
Neither Ankara nor Tehran want a strong Iraq, or a strong Syria. On the contrary, the fragmentation of these countries suits both.
Mideast experts: Leaked Zarif tape exposes Iran narrative of so-called ‘moderates,’ ‘hardliners’Prof. Efraim Inbar: There is no distinction between moderates and hardliners. All of Iran’s leaders have the same goals of kicking the Americans out of the Middle East, taking it over and going for the bomb.
In DC, Israel’s top spy and security wonk face a mission impossible on IranDr. Eran Lerman: They can move the needle a bit, but their trip is unlikely to prevent the Biden administration from barreling towards a deal with Tehran.
Sanctions relief, nothing else. Iran has no intention of forsaking its nuclear and missile programs nor its proxy wars across the region.
By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.
On the nuclear talks with Iran in ViennaInterview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon
The US should be appreciative of any significant delay in Iran's breakout timetable towards a nuclear weapon. The time gained can and should be used to negotiate a "longer, stronger" agreement.
Israel, Iran on collision course as Iran vows revenge for alleged Israeli cyberattack on nuke facilityCol. Eran Lerman of JISS: The premise among Israeli defense officials is that there may come a time when Israel will enter a major war. This is a risk Israel is willing to take if there will be no other way to stop Iran.
Ex-national security adviser warns: ‘Iran has ability to harm us significantly’Yaakov Amidror: Tehran’s willingness to use its military capabilities against Israel ‘depends on what level they want to produce this encounter.’
The West is focusing on the tragic humanitarian costs of the war in Yemen while turning a blind eye to the significant strategic implications of a Houthi/Iranian victory. This approach imperils Middle Eastern and Western security.
After Saviz strike, Israel may be in dire straits trying to battle Iran at seaGeneral Amidror of JISS: The endgame is to make it clear to the Iranians that they cannot strike civilian ships that have a connection to Israel. And if they continue to do that, then Israel knows how to operate against Iran.
On renewed Iran-US nuclear talks Interview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Israel-Iran Maritime War Heats Up with Alleged Israeli Attack on IRGC ShipOmer Dostri of JISS: I see a message to the US here, that Israel will not allow Iranian operations to continue.
The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.
On Iran's advanced enrichment of uranium at NatanzInterview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
Israel-US dialogue is necessary about Iran’s nuclear program, since a good agreement with Iran is a clear Israeli interest. But Israel must be prepared with a military option against Iran, as a last resort.
The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.
Jerusalem views with trepidation the possibility that the Biden administration will embark on a human rights crusade in the Middle East.
Israel's Environment Minister Blames Iran for Oil Spill that Ravaged Israeli ShoreDr. Omer Dostri: Were the oil spill indeed identified as an Iranian action, it would be in keeping with Iran's strategy in its conflict with Israel.
On Biden Administration policies that will impact IsraelInterview with Dr. Eran Lerman
Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.
The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.
The launch of Iran's first solid propellant space rocket is highly significant.
On the interim accord between the IAEA and IranInterview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon
Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.
Many have raised understandable moral qualms (and practical questions) about conduct of war in Yemen. Indeed, the coalition fighting the Houthi uprising should be more attentive to the loss of innocent lives. But allowing Iran’s proxies to win the war in Yemen would have dangerous political and far-reaching strategic consequences for Israel, the region, and US interests.
The dangerous, disappearing PersiansProf. Efraim Inbar: Escalation in the use of force to reverse Iranian ascendance in Middle East politics, to prevent its nuclearization, and to prevent the encirclement of Israel by Iranian proxies, is probable.
New Delhi explosion – why specifically India?Dr. Oshrit Birvadker: The Iranians wanted to not only attack Israel but also the US and India itself.
JISS Briefing by Prof. Efraim Inbar, 31.01.2021
Former Israeli official: Americans should not give Iranians leverage by easing sanctionsGeneral Yaakov Amidror: The Biden administration needs to grasp that it’s a different Middle East. I don’t think the old notions and ideas will work.
Netanyahu warns as Biden seeks reentry to Iran deal Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror at JISS: If the US returns to the old nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel will have no choice but to act militarily to prevent Iran from manufacturing a nuclear weapon.
On US Policy Towards IranInterview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
A "Clean Return," without ironclad new provisions that strengthen and lengthen the JCPOA, will diminish US clout and destabilize the Mideast.
Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.
With Iran nuclear deal likely, Israel puts all options back on the tableGeneral Amidror of JISS: If the US returns to the old nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel will have no choice but to act militarily to prevent Iran from manufacturing a nuclear weapon.
Iran and Israel: The inevitable war?Prof. Efraim Inbar for The Brussels Times
Reported Israeli strikes on Iranian targets in SyriaInterview with Prof. Efraim Inbar
Iran-Israel relations are essentially a zero-sum game, leaving Israel little choice but to act upon its existential instincts. Therefore, escalation in the use of force to reverse Iranian ascendance in Middle East politics, to prevent its nuclearization, and to prevent the encirclement of Israel by Iranian proxies, is probable.
The IDF Prepares for Tensions with IranInterview with Dr. Eran Lerman
Israeli airstrikes on Iranian targets in SyriaInterview with Dr. Eran Lerman, ILTV 27.12.2020
Israel seeks to disrupt Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Experts predict what Israel can expect from new administrationA conference held by JISS and B’nai B’rith International looked at the likely foreign policy priorities of the Biden administration, ranging from COVID-19 to climate change and Iran.
Ex-NSC chief Amidror: Huge mistake for Biden to drop leverage on IranBiden should seek Iran nuke restrictions for 50 years.
Experts say Iran likely to delay retaliation against Israel for assassinated nuclear scientistProf. Efraim Inbar: It is wrong to assume that Iran will retaliate immediately.
Putin’s strategy in Israel, Iran and SyriaMs. Micky Aharonson explains how Israel maneuvers between Washington and Moscow, and what she expects from the Biden administration regarding Russia policy. (Al Monitor podcast, 09.12.2020)
Can Biden move Qatar away from Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood?Prof. Efraim Inbar: Qatar spends enormous amounts of money in systematic support for the nefarious activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its branches all over the world.
Biden’s foreign-policy appointments and what they might mean for IsraelProf. Efraim Inbar: Tony Blinken is “on record” demanding an extension of the sunset clauses in the JCPOA
Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, "stronger and longer" deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran's present course.
To acquire greater freedom of action in dealing with Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, Israel needs to minimize tensions with the US on the Palestinian front.
Trump's Middle East peace plan and the recent Israel-Arab peace accords limit Chinese influence in the region. Countering this, China is advancing a collective security concept for the region based on the JCPOA. The US and Israel must stymie this Chinese gambit and reinforce the Abraham Accords.
Arabs states draw closer to Israel to counter non-Arab powers Turkey and IranDr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Almost in every theater, Turkey, Qatar and Hamas are challenging the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
UAVs, which used to be supportive weapons systems, are rapidly maturing into decisive weapons. Israel now faces threats from the entire spectrum of unmanned aerospace vehicles, ranging from Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) to Kamikaze drones and precision ballistic missiles.
Iran has ‘more to lose than to gain’ from Azerbaijan victoryMiki Aharonson: The Islamic Republic is fearful of an Israeli presence on its northwest border, in addition to the presence of Turkish-backed Sunni operatives sent to help the Azeris
Israel’s Geopolitical Challenges in the Deadly Conflict Between Armenia, Azerbaijan Prof. Efraim Inbar: Azerbaijan supplies much of Israel’s oil and it borders on Iran, and obviously Israel is interested in looking into Iran.
Both Biden’s and Trump’s Iran policies raise concerns in IsraelGeneral Amidror: Israel’s redline is that Iran must not get close to a nuclear bomb. Iran can have no legitimacy for enrichment or long-term nuclear development.
Experts believe Israel unlikely to drop lucrative arms sales to AzerbaijanProf. Efraim Inbar: Israel will honor its contracts with Azerbaijan. What they do is not our responsibility.
The peace deals between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain mark the completion of an existing process by which the region's stabilizing forces are banding together against the Iranian threat.
Iran’s space program is more than a by-product of its missile program. It is central to the Islamic Republic's quest for regional hegemony and global power.
Will Israel strike Iran? Prof. Inbar of JISS: The strike on Soleimani warns Iran that the option for expanded US use of force against Iran is on the table. General Amidror of JISS: Israel must navigate its path based on the assumption that it cannot... fundamentally change the situation in the Middle East, neither by political agreements nor by using military force.
Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.
Lebanon's domestic and regional woes Dr. Eran Lerman: Iran is the foreign occupier of Lebanon, through the agency of Hezbollah.
If the enemy of my enemy gets the bomb: Saudi nuclear plan gives Israel headache Dr. Joshua Krasna: I am sure we would be happy if the Saudis didn’t work toward nuclear weapons. But that is not the same as saying we have a significant impetus to do something about it.
Rafael, Raytheon Reach Deal on ‘American’ Iron DomeDr. Uzi Rubin: Today, every young militia fighter has as many rockets, GRAD missiles or Iranian weapons that he wants. Short-range missiles are the weapon du jour of anyone battling American troops. Iron Dome is a necessary response.
On blocking Iranian progress in developing nuclear weapons Maj. Gen. (Res.) Yaakov Amidror to i24 News
How can Israel navigate the divide between Azerbaijan and Armenia?Dr. Eran Lerman: Israel faces a supreme challenge from Iran, and Azerbaijan is important for us in that regard.
Iran’s strategy amid Israel-Hezbollah tensionsDr. Yossi Mansharof of JISS argues that a reading of some Iranian press may hint at the regime’s complex policy during the tensions.
Video briefing by JISS fellow Dr. Uzi Rubin, founder and first director of the Israel Missile Defense Organization, about Iran’s space program. (July 26, 2020)
Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran's presence in Syria.
Hitting Iran where it hurtsDr. Yossi Mansharof: Nuclear weapons would boost Iran to superpower status. Diplomacy has failed to stop the regime.
Watch this video briefing by JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer about flashpoints across the Mideast, from North Africa to Iran; especially conflicts fueled by Iran. (Briefing delivered to AIJAC in early July).
Soldiers in uniform for less time means the army has less time to train them and can make use of their skills for a shorter period. In addition, there is no benefit in releasing potential young workers early at a time of rife unemployment.
From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly ‘pro-Western’ and ‘pro-NATO’ orientation that Turkey’s Western apologists like to recall.
“Qods Day” reflects Tehran's determination to annihilate Israel, a pillar of Iranian foreign policy. It also is an important part of “exporting” the Islamic Revolution.
Under the pretext of separation between regime and people, Iran seeks $5 billion in IMF emergency funding to fight COVID-19. This would significantly undermine the pressure on Iran being applied by US sanctions, and therefore the loan should be denied.
A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
The recent reciprocal cyber-attacks attributed to Israel and Iran were meant to set red lines on the non-kinetic dimension of war.
Israel, Iran reportedly trade cyber-blows as part of ongoing tensions Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Iran has invested a major effort in developing its cyber abilities.
A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
Watch Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror, the Anne and Greg Rosshandler Senior Fellow at JISS, address the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (February 2020) regarding Israel’s looming confrontation with Iran and its proxies. “Hezbollah and the IRGC should beware: Israel knows more about their operations than they imagine,” Amidror says.
Prof. Efraim Inbar: The US and Israel are “on the same page” when it comes to the Iranian military presence on Syrian territory.
This paper reviews the responses of Middle Eastern countries to the spread of the coronavirus and highlights diplomatic and defense implications stemming from the situation. The assessment of JISS fellows is that the coronavirus crisis will not fundamentally change power dynamics in the region or alter the prevailing ambitions and policies of key countries.
Now that IRGC leadership in Iran's space effort is out in the open, it can be expected that its homemade, long-range rockets with a global reach will be revealed soon, as well.
Iran puts first spy satellite in orbit. Here's why Israel should worry. Dr. Uzi Rubin: Iran has only one missile and space program, and it is military in nature.
Video briefing by JISS vice president Dr. Eran Lerman about Iran’s continuing aggression and Israel’s determination to halt its march towards nuclear weapons.
In the meantime, it doesn’t seem as though Iran – the driving force behind most of the friction in the Middle East – is changing its plans or abandoning its dreams, whether in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq or even Yemen.
Watch JISS fellow Dr. Uzi Rubin address the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (February 2020) about the missile threat Israel faces from Iran and its proxies.
There may be a change in Iranian policy towards the US due to Iran’s economic and coronavirus difficulties.
As calls rise for the US to ease sanctions on Tehran, why is Netanyahu silent? General Amidror: “Israel attacked targets in Syria yesterday, according to foreign sources. The State of Israel continues to do what it needs to do, without talking, and the Americans do whatever they think is right in terms of sanctions.”
A key aspect of the ongoing political crisis in Iraq is the anger directed at foreign meddling, and specifically, at the role played by Iran and its proxies. The IRGC Qods Force has penetrated deep into Iraqi power structures over the last 15 years. Weakening and possibly reducing this Iranian grip, through an appeal to Iraqi nationalism, will not solve Iraq's profound problems. Among other challenges, the Islamic State still has influence in some Sunni areas. Nevertheless, countering Iran's power is still an achievable goal, worth pursuing.
The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
We have five years of experience to compare to the competing assessments of 2015. Now we know that Netanyahu’s gloomy forecast has proven to be the more prescient.
Israel's confrontation with Iran. Prof. Efraim Inbar, interviewed by Jay Sekulow Live.
PIJ is an important part of the Iranian strategy for fighting Israel. The regime in Tehran makes use of charities and other civilian organizations, such as money changers, to transfer funds to its allies in Gaza.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is ideologically, financially and militarily dependent on Tehran, and it plays an important role in Iran's war against Israel. The IRGC makes use of a range of institutions and charitable foundations that support PIJ. It is important that these be sanctioned by the US.
Iran is reverting to attacks on the US through non-Iranian organizations under its control.
Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
US envoy urges Germany not to celebrate Iran’s Holocaust-denying regime. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: The German government’s planned participation in the 41st anniversary of the establishment of the Iranian Regime is a disgrace for Germany.
Most of the regional players are wary an escalation between the US and Iran, a conflict which would be conducted across the Middle East and will have wide implications. If Iranian miscalculation leads President Trump to commit to a significant campaign against Tehran, countries wary of Iranian influence could change their posture, and become more explicitly in line with American positions and interests.
Iranian authorities bulldozed grave of executed Christian pastor. Fr. Yossi Mansharof: The Khamenei-led regime persecutes the Christians in Iran because more and more Muslim people chose to convert to this religion, as a result of their anger and disgust toward the Islamic Republic of Iran.
After the US took out Soleimani, Iran vowed retaliation. Was that it? Dr. Yossi Mansharof: The chances of a direct war with Iran are very low, but the reliance of Tehran on proxy warfare will play a major role.
Soleiman’s ‘Potent Legacy’: Giant Shi’ite Fighting Force From Iran to the Mediterranean. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Preserving the militias intact is now the aim of the Iranian leadership.
Israeli town knows conflict with Iran-linked militants, hopes more is not to come. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Hezbollah does not want to drag Lebanon into another war with Israel.
A firm stand at this critical juncture may prove to be of use as part of the effort to bring Iran back to the nuclear negotiating table on terms more acceptable to the US and to Trump's regional allies, including Israel.
Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended
Trump has made it clear that attacks on American personnel are going to elicit a military reaction.
Israel careful onlooker as Mideast reacts to killing of senior Iranian commander. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Israel needs to sit back, help the Americans with intelligence as much as possible and be prepared to defend herself.
Israel Lauds Suleimani Assassination, Though With Caution. General Amidror: The strike calms fears in Israel about the United States’ willingness to act in the region.
Israeli embassies, IDF raise alert levels as Iran threatens to avenge Soleimani. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Hezbollah had a worldwide network of operatives, and an attack on American officials, high-ranking military officers or other interests is also possible.
The Protests in Iraq and Iran's involvement. Dr. Yossi Mansharoff Talks To I24 News.
What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
Ex-security chief: Israel needs to attack Iran to stop nukes, ‘ring of fire'. Maj. Gen. Amidror: There might come a situation where we will have to act directly in Iran to stop the Iranians. The world is not ready to act…not NATO, not the US…they prefer to close their eyes.
Tensions escalate amid intense Israeli-Iranian conflict. Dr. Yossi Mansharof interview with Chinese Xinhua News Agency.
A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.
A worldwide network of terrorist groups and alliances is Iran’s strategic weapon for any military escalation scenario. A systematic counterterrorist strategy is necessary to deprive Iran of this powerful tool.
America must provide Iranian demonstrators with access to the Internet to bolster the protests.
Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.
Israel is expected by its European interlocutors to condemn Putin over his misdeeds, yet Israel wants to avoid frictions with Russia in order to maintain a free hand to operate against Iranian targets in Syria.
Iranian strike on Saudi oil facilities a global wake-up call, defense official warns. Dr. Uzi Rubin of JISS: We are advancing in cruise missiles, and the Iranians are advancing. This is an arms race.
Will the people succeed in undermining the Iranian plan to spread power across the region?
If it weren't for the Iranian regime's distress, it might decide to tread water until US President Trump was out of office. But its resources are limited, and the possibility that the ayatollahs might attack Israel out of desperation is very real.
Escalating tensions with Iran should be a warning that Tehran’s strategy of training and arming proxy terror groups throughout the Middle East is not being countered aggressively enough.
Chinese investment in Iran would help Tehran withstand US economic pressures, and exacerbate the Western crisis with Iran
Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.
Riyadh and Tehran on the brink. KAN's Mark Weiss askes Dr. Yossi Mansharof if he was surprised by the attacks on the Saudi oil installations.
"There is no good or bad terrorism. Iran cannot threaten Israel's destruction" Sujan R. Chinoy, Director-General of the Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi, visited Israel under the auspices of JISS. He says he is optimistic about India’s relationship with Israel: "It is greater than any temporary political climate."
The new enemy just over the Syrian border. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Iran is exploiting the lack of a centralized power in Afghanistan and Pakistan to enlist support for and manpower for its militias.
TRUMP’S GOT A ‘GOOD FEELING’ ABOUT IRAN? NETANYAHU SHOULD BE NERVOUS. Prof. Inbar: I do not see the Iranians signing on any deal that will force them to give up their nuclear capability.
Attacks on Iranian targets in Syria serve Russian interests. Col. Lerman of JISS: Down the road, what the Iranians want to do in Syria and what the Russians want to do in Syria are two totally different things.
Israel’s Shadow War With Iran Widens as Netanyahu Faces Close Election Contest. General Amidror of JISS: We declared a few years ago that we will not let the Iranians build an independent Iranian war machine.
More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.
The US should focus on closing sanctions-bypassing channels (especially through Turkey and Qatar), and on eroding Iranian currency reserves. Use the massive legal judgments against Iran for its role in terrorism to hit the country’s currency reserves.
Iran Increases Hamas Funding in Exchange for Intel on Israel Missiles. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Tehran asked Hamas to provide intelligence on the locations of Israeli missile stockpiles in exchange for the funding.
Based in Lebanon but entrenched in Latin America, Hezbollah helps Iran spread global terrorism. Dr. Emmanuel Navon: The Trump administration is determined to fight the Iranian and Hezbollah presence in South America.
Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign must not be curtailed before Iran’s leaders truly have no choice but to capitulate to Western demands.
It is complicit in Hizballah’s terrorism and subversion, in Europe and the US.
THE QUESTION ISRAEL’S LEADERS ASK EVERY DAY: WILL TOMORROW BE TOO LATE? General Amidror of JISS: Iran’s strategic plan is to create a deterrence barrier around Israel, stretching from Lebanon to Syria to Iraq to the Gaza Strip, in order to threaten Israel with an overwhelming and devastating strike on its homeland, should Israel attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Iran's declaration on uranium enrichment. Dr. Yossi Mansharof on Kan English News.
Tension between the United States and Iran. Dr. Yossi Mansharof in an interview to "Strictly Security".
Iranians view Trump as ‘tougher’ than Obama, but will it push them to more extreme actions? Prof. Efraim Inbar: Trump is trying to intimidate Iran to come to the negotiating table.
Israel needs to be prepared for potentially dramatic consequences, including rapid deterioration towards confrontation on all Israel’s borders. Resilience and readiness to act can serve to deter provocations by Iran’s proxies. Ultimately, only a credible military threat from Israel will indicate to friend and foe alike that in a showdown, Iran will be forced to back down.
Professor Efraim Inbar on escalation in US-Iran tensions.
Iran is continually expanding its military, economic and political presence in Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s February 25 visit to Iran was an important marker in these efforts. Assad met with Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, who labeled him the “hero of the Arab world.” The presence of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and
In the remote deserts of western Iraq, Iran’s servants are busily at work preparing a new front against Israel.
Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman on Iran crisis. With Israelis closely watching developments between the US and Iran, as well as Iran’s actives through its proxies in the Persian Gulf, TIP spoke with Col. in reserves, Dr. Eran Lerman, for his assessment of the situation.
The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.
Amidror: Iran Behind the Gaza Escalation. Why did the Islamic Jihad do this? The answer is again and again and again - Iran.
Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.
The Iranian “corridor” is a central project for the mullahs in Iraq and Syria, involving a highway which would connect Tehran with Damascus.
Iran to Lease Part of Latakia Port – Reports. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: The rivalry between Tehran and Moscow is becoming “more visible” in post-war Syria.
The Golan Heights is Israel’s best northern defense line, especially since Iranian forces have moved into Syria. US recognition of Israel’s sovereignty on the Golan along with Israel’s military superiority ensure a secure border.
The EU’s insistence on preserving the nuclear agreement with Iran and its persistent efforts to establish a mechanism for evading American trade sanctions are encouraging Iran to escalate its subversion throughout Europe.
Tehran eyes vital Syrian port of Latakia as gateway to Med. Dr. Yossi Mansharof: Moscow is likely to allow Israel to launch strikes on Iranian targets around Latakia if it uses the port to ship weapons.
Armed opposition groups emerging from the Kurdish, Baloch and Ahvazi Arab minorities have stepped-up attacks on regime assets in Iran. Tehran is responding by acting against these opponents, in Pakistan and Iraq and further afield. But these insurgencies are not capable by themselves of calling the regime’s viability into question, because of their relatively narrow bases of support.
The Rift Inside Iran's Governing Bodies. Interpretation following the resignation of Foreign Minister Zarif. Dr. Yossi Mansharof in an interview with i24.
The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country's civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
The attempted resignation of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif didn't come as a complete surprise. It reflects the utter supremacy of the Revolutionary Guard in the Iranian political sphere.
Israeli generals, diplomats address ability to deter Iran’s ‘war with Israel’ General Amidror: “We don’t expect anyone to fight for Israel. Israel will defend itself, by itself.”
The Iranian media claimed that millions filled the streets on the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The opposition, however says that fewer people participated. Iran's nuclear program will not protect the regime against the people's antipathy.
Israel has not fully deterred Iranian aggression in Syria. Prof. Efraim Inbar: Iran still remains determined to open a second front against Israel in Syria.
One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.
Israel Confirms Attacks on Iranian Targets in Syria. Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror :“If you want to make clear to the other side that you are determined to prevent something, either you escalate the operation, or you say in public I’m doing it, meaning I’m ready to take the risk”.
'Israel will continue to react to military entrenchment by Iran' Israel has carried out airstrikes on Iranian targets in the vicinity of the Syrian capital Damascus. The Israeli Defense Forces have confirmed the military operation in an tweet earlier this morning. Radio Sputnik discussed the development with Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies.
How critical are American boots on the ground in Syria for Israel? General Amidror: “Declaring Israeli sovereignty over the Golan won’t help us in acting against the Iranians, but it won’t stop us from acting against the Iranians.”
Amidror headlines launch of GPO Café. “The Iranians know that Israel has red lines in Syria and on the Golan Heights, and we are very determined.”
Iran is taking advantage of the crises created by ISIS and the Arab Spring to advance its land route project from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea. The American withdrawal from Syria will remove one of the obstacles that stand in Iran’s path, yet Israel has demonstrated its determination to prevent the establishment of this route.
Iran: Back in Focus. A report on the JISS conference about confronting Iran.
The Shi'ite militia threat isn't a mere thought exercise about a worst-case scenario. Iranian-controlled Popular Mobilization Forces leaders have already threatened Israel only miles from Israeli homes.
It is highly unlikely that Iran will agree to any limitation on its missile programs, despite Trump administration pressures. For Iran's leadership, to concede on missiles is to concede on the regime’s global ambitions.
Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.
Why is murder by Iran, but not Saudi Arabia, permissible? Dr. Emmanuel Navon: While it is outrageous for President Trump to let Saudi Arabia get away with murder, the atomic agreement was also indefensible. At the end of the day this is about realpolitik.
Sanctions could drive a wedge between Iranians who focus inwards and hardliners committed to Iran’s bid for regional dominance. It is clearly in the interest of those who seek to bring about a drastic change in Iranian behavior to drive this wedge deeper by supporting the sanctions and raising the costs of revolutionary adventurism.
Iran is now manufacturing, upgrading missiles in Iraq, sources say. Speaking at JISS, strategic affairs minister warns of scenario in which Iran is fighting Israel on multiple fronts, including in Judea and Samaria.
Liberman at JISS: US Sanctions Will Reduce Iran’s Terror Financing Former NSC Chief Yaakov Amidror says Russia will be embarrassed when IDF overcomes S-300 in Syria.
Poll: 91% of Israelis favor strikes on Iranian assets in Syria. Some 77% of respondents believe Israel must pursue hard-line policies to thwart Iran's nuclear ambitions, Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies poll finds. It also finds 57% are pleased with how PM Netanyahu is handling the Iranian threat.
Europeans working hard to sabotage US sanctions on Iran. Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Germany and France want to circumvent U.S. sanctions for business reason. And the EU hates Trump, and will do whatever it can to circumvent him.
Israel must continue to take the offensive against Iran’s nuclear program, without reliance on international inspectors.
In the absence of a clear American or Turkish determination to confront Iranian encroachment, only Israel has the power to stop it.
Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.
While Israel should steer away from overt identification with internal challengers in Iran, this is the time to urge the US. and other like-inded nations to ratchet up the pressure on the regime, explaining to the Iranian people the growing cost of their leaders' ambitions.
Will Iraqi territory be used to fire rockets on Israel from Iran? Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror: Israel needs to be ready to take military risks to prevent Iran from establishing its own forces in Syria.
Israel’s opposition to Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon is twofold: To prevent Iran from building a beachhead against Israel through its proxies on Israel’s borders, and to impede development of Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities. Israel is absolutely determined and prepared to act forcefully against Iran, which could lead to a full-scale war. Israel must win this struggle against Iran, one way or another.
Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it's not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
On restoring relations between Tehran and Washington. If the protests in Iran expand, Trump will be able to exert greater pressure on Tehran.
Iran's goal in its activity in the Western Sahara is to subvert Morocco, a moderate Sunni state, as part of the Iranian regime's policy of spreading the Shi'ite revolution.
With an eye on Syria, Israel seeks broader truce in Gaza. General Amidror: Israel needs to focus on the real issue: Iran in Syria, not on Hamas.
JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.
If recruiting a disgraced former official with no access to updated information is the best Iran's spymasters could do, Israel's intelligence superiority is in no danger.
Prof. Efraim Inbar on Iran, Trump and Turkey Australian Jewish News, 8.6.2018
Ex-Israeli officials: Why would we expect NATO to help us in an Iran war? Dr. Eran Lerman: “We never asked for anyone to defend us!"
Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most rudderless.
Israel must make it clear to Hamas that letting Islamic Jihad trigger another widespread escalation does not serve its interests or its continued existence.
Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.
Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then conflict between Tehran and Jerusalem is a near inevitability, since there is no chance of Iran acquiescing to this except by coercion. On the other hand, if the Israeli intention is to prevent the Iranians from transferring certain weapons systems into Syria — advanced anti-aircraft systems, ballistic missiles, drones — then conflagration may not be so imminent.
Trump's announcement on Iran deal decision. Dr. Eran Lerman on france 24 news
Israel's intelligence branches need to understand what was destroyed and then identify where and how Iran intends to push its military build-up forward – and neutralize that as well.
The Iranian provocation on the Golan Heights failed, and the Iranians would do well to cut their losses now and end their confrontation with Israel.
DEFENSE EXPERT: IRAN DID NOT DEPLOY ITS BEST MISSILES IN THURSDAY ATTACK Uzi Rubin: Iran has more advanced missiles which it did not use.
EXPERT: IRAN LIKELY TO CONTINUE NUCLEAR PROGRAM WHEN NUCLEAR DEAL EXPIRES Prof. Efraim Inbar: It was quite clear that the Americans were not surprised by the speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu, and they knew about it in advance.
The broader context to US President Trump’s recent decisions to nix the nuclear deal with Iran and to move the US embassy to Jerusalem is restoration of America’s credibility as a world power after eight years of diffident presidential leadership.
Bucking world opinion, Trump withdraws from Iran nuclear deal, imposes ‘highest level of economic sanctions’ Dr. Emmanuel Navon: "Iran will try to keep the agreement going for the cash and test economic ties with other powers. And it will be easier for Iran to cheat on the agreement without the U.S. involved.”
Israel girds for Tehran’s revenge as the price of getting Iran out of Syria General Amidror: “We let Hezbollah amass 120,000 missiles in Lebanon. We will not make the same mistake in Syria.”
Israel welcomes U.S. pullout of Iran deal amid high alert over Iranian response Prof. Efraim Inbar: Israel's deterrence is increasingly stronger
Many criticized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's unveiling of a secret Iranian nuclear archive as "nothing new" and "a performance." But there was plenty new in his presentation, and it will have far-reaching implications.
Israel's revelation of Iran's nuclear deception aims to show the world that the 2015 deal with Iran must indeed be renegotiated in the interests of global peace.
The wars in Syria are far from over. Israeli policy has been largely successful in preventing the fire from Syria coming over the border, and this effort should continue. But Iranian entrenchment in Syria complicates matters.
Iran should understand that Israel has the ability to reach the most sensitive places in Tehran.
The French president's visit to served to demonstrate Macron's importance as a dynamic and proactive European player, and as a partner in the effort to curb Iran's strategic ambitions.
Suspected Israeli strikes hit Iran-linked targets in Syria, escalating regional tensions. Dr. Jonathan Spyer of JISS: With Israel determined to prevent the “consolidation and entrenchment” of Iranian influence in Syria, “the chances of confrontation between Israel and Iran are quite significant.”
Are the Europeans stalling, trying to bait Trump in keeping the nuclear deal alive? Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Macron’s true mission was to buy more time and convince Trump to remain in the deal.
How secure is Israel at 70? Prof. Efraim Inbar: Even with the Iran threat looming, we are still in a strong strategic situation
Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.
The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran.
With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran's actions in Syria.
Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.
Given the bad nuclear deal signed with Iran, Israel must be diligent about risk management; no matter how relentless intelligence gathering efforts are, not all threats can be countered. Israel will not allow enemy states to go nuclear.
A hard look at the Israeli admission of 2007 attack on a Syrian nuclear reactor, and its message for Iran. Prof. Efraim Inbar: Striking Iranian facilities would be much more difficult. World Israel News 22.03.2018
Might more be done to advance an Iranian counter-revolution? Uri Lubrani certainly thought so, and he was not naive.
With Iran operating in Syria, Israel girds itself for 'First Northern War' General Amidror: Israel will have to face two fronts at the same time: one in Syria, one in Lebanon CBC News, 01.03.18
Iran, Deeply Embedded in Syria, Expands ‘Axis of Resistance’ Gen. Amidror: “Israel face not only quantities of Hezbollah missiles, but the threat to vulnerable strategic sites.” By Ben Hubbard, Isabel Kershner and Anne Barnard, The New York Times, Feb. 19, 2018
With the weakening of ISIS, the growing strength of Russia in Syria, and the continuing retraction of American involvement in the region – Iran apparently feels emboldened enough to escalate its confrontation with Israel.
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: Putin has the ability to rein in the Iranians. The Media Line, 11.2.2018
Secret Iranian missile factory in Lebanon requires preemptive Israeli attack. Comment by Prof. Efraim Inbar: Preemptive attack is an option.
What needs “nixing” is not the JCPOA – a piece of paper – but the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Too early to judge Netanyahu-Trump impact on Iran deal in Davos. Comment by Dr. Eran Lerman World Israel News 29.1.2018
Can Trump and Netanyahu get Europe to push back against Iran’s ballistic missiles? Col. Eran Lerman: “Trump and Netanyahu cannot get backing on the nuclear deal but they can get Europe to take a stand on the missiles." World Israel News, 25.1.2018
On Russia’s anti-Trump posturing regarding Iran Comment by Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman, The Media Line, 06.01.2018
The recent protests in Iran are very important because they point to the Iranian leadership's economic failures, and the consequent anger harbored by a considerable number of Iranian citizens over their country's investments in far-off countries such as Lebanon and Syria. These investments, they feel, are at their expense.
If the United States wants to disengage from the Middle East it should do so with a bang. The address for such a forceful demonstration is clear: the Iranian nuclear program.
Is Europe waking up on the Iranian threat? Not likely, experts say. Comment by Dr. Emmanuel Navon. JNS, 19.12.2017
Israel’s real interest today is to prevent Jordan from being destabilized by Iran, according to Dr. Eran Lerman.
No duplicitous decrees by supreme or smiling ayatollahs should deflect our attention from Tehran’s dangerous moves.
On Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
A recently disclosed ruling by Iran's supreme leader caps the range of Iran's missiles at 2,000 kilometers, a distance that threatens Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt but doesn’t threaten Western Europe. Practically speaking, this ruling is neither new nor truthful. Europe has a good reason to be concerned.
A few seemingly unrelated incidents that took place across the Middle East this week all seem to point out that much of the regional unrest can be traced back to Iran, which is backing Shiite forces from Pakistan to Syria. That is unlikely to change.
An interview with Maj. Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror about Israel's strategy vs. Russia and Iran in Syria, and about the launch of the institute.
Iran is on the march, presenting a significant security challenge to Israel and to moderate Sunni countries. It is investing blood, figuratively and literally, in realizing its aspirations for a Shiite corridor to the Mediterranean Sea, in strengthening its influence in the region via militia forces, in building a nuclear option, and in threatening Israel.
The Iranian situation is both more urgent and more malleable than the almost hopeless situation with North Korea.
Only the use of force can stop Iran from fulfilling its ambitions. Israel is on its own in this regard.
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