Hamas

It is in Israel's interest to solidify the Egyptian role in Gaza, in the context of "conflict management" as a governing policy concept. Egyptian participation in the efforts to stabilize the situation in Gaza serves as an important component in the vital Egypt-Israel relationship. It also helps erode Hamas' pretensions of Jihad.

Does Hamas see Israel’s deterrence waning?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Deterrence is a tricky notion. Dr. Eran Lerman: Hamas is irritating us in order to obtain certain limited gains through the negotiating process.

Gaza rocket hits Israeli home injuring seven; Netanyahu cuts short Washington trip.
Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: “When there was intensive rocket fire on the southern area that borders Gaza, Israel found a workable modus vivendi, involving transfer of Qatari money to Hamas. If Netanyahu now reacts aggressively, then people will say the blood of those in the center of the country is thicker than in the south. If he does not respond, then he’ll be criticized for not doing anything in the face of brazen provocation.”

Political Dynamics Raise Risk for Israel-Hamas Clash.
Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: “The anti-Hamas demonstrations that indicate a level of frustration and anger not seen before. (The missile fire on Israel) is a familiar tactic to refocus the tension on the real enemy.”

The IDF's response will be harsher than usual, not because Israelis in the center are more valued than those in the periphery but because of the emerging need to show Hamas that it has grossly misjudged.

Rocket From Gaza Hits Israel, Prompting Netanyahu to Curtail U.S. Trip.
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: Hamas is playing with fire.

CAN HAMAS ROCKETS THREATEN BEN-GURION AIRPORT FLIGHTS?
Uzi Rubin: Even if Hamas’s chances of hitting an aircraft or the airport are low, they cannot just be summarily dismissed.

How Hamas Brought Israel to the Brink of Election Chaos.
Dr. Eran Lerman: Lieberman was isolated by the rest of Netanyahu’s security cabinet, which supported the ceasefire.

Is the situation with Gaza ‘the problem from hell?’
Prof. Efraim Inbar: We cannot trust Hamas to keep the calm. Only when Hamas is afraid of IDF retaliation, which has yet to come, will calm prevail. General Amidror: A war in Gaza will only benefit PA leader Mahmoud Abbas and Iran. And we don’t want to give Iran any gifts.

The challenge now is how to make it clear to the Hamas leadership that it should not believe is own supercilious words.