In the latest JISS podcast, the Institute’s Director, Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, outlines how the joint Israeli-American air campaigns have achieved historic success by systematically decimating the primary components of the Iranian jihadist axis. However, he notes, a significant gap remains between what can be achieved through air power alone versus the strategic ends that require a multi-pronged diplomatic approach. While the Iranian regime faces unprecedented economic strangulation, internal rifts, and an degraded proxy network, Israel must navigate short-term tactical limitations while preparing for a prolonged, multi-arena campaign. 

Highlights from the conversation:

• The public narrative heavily underestimates the immense military achievements on the ground. The past two Iran wars obliterated Iran’s core nuclear infrastructure, destroying main enrichment facilities at Natanz and Fordow, alongside the vital conversion complex in Isfahan. 
• Operations severely damaged weaponization facilities in Parchin and buried stockpiled materials inside deep mountain tunnels. Furthermore, the targeted elimination of top-tier nuclear scientists has dealt substantial damage to the human infrastructure running the nuclear program. 
• Heavy damage was inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile industrial production base. Because long-range ballistic missiles are the intended delivery systems for nuclear payloads, halting the capability to manufacture new missiles also directly stymies the overarching nuclear file. 
• The damage dealt to Iran’s air defense systems, air force, and navy is massive. Furthermore, while the regime persists, it is operating under an altered and severely disrupted leadership network compared to the long-standing tier in power since 1999. 

The Limits of Air Power & the Role of Statecraft

• Kuperwasser underscores that strategic objectives like forcing the absolute surrender of highly enriched uranium, permanently stopping existing missile launches, or initiating regime change cannot be achieved through military air power alone. This reality places the ultimate burden on Trump’s maximum-pressure negotiations to secure a 20-year non-enrichment verification framework superior to the flawed 2015 JCPOA. 
• While the fanatical leadership remains completely indifferent to civilian well-being, the ongoing U.S. naval blockade is starving the regime’s specialized economy. The freeze on energy exports bleeds hundreds of millions of dollars daily, directly threatening the regime’s core capacity to pay salaries to the IRGC and the Basij forces needed to maintain domestic control. 
• Israel and the U.S. have intentionally avoided striking civilian power plants and oil infrastructures to ensure a future, post-collapse regime can govern. Concurrently, the coalition avoids over-relying on fragmented opposition forces like the Kurds, who remain primarily focused on localized issues rather than systemic regime change. 

Regional Proxy Dynamics: Lebanon & Gaza

• The IDF has been fighting with one hand tied behind its back. While Hezbollah exploits this to operate in Beirut and the Beqaa Valley and is utilizing cheap, fiber-optic first-person view (FPV) drones to cause painful casualties, the tactic is also a sign of weakness. Hezbollah’s conventional firepower is degraded, its proxy supply chain from Iran is severed, and its cross-border invasion capacity is broken. 
• The fall of the Syrian regime to a rival Sunni power has disrupted Hezbollah’s main land corridor for weapons smuggling. Stripped of its narrative as the “shield of Lebanon,” Hezbollah’s domestic base is deeply fracturing, which has emboldened the Lebanese government to bypass the group and launch direct diplomatic talks with Israel, forcing Naim Qassem to counter by threatening an active civil war. 
• While Hamas in Gaza continues to brutally dominate and terrorize the population within the areas of Gaza it controls, its external threat to Israel has been reduced to a shadow of its pre-October 7th status. The IDF currently maintains operational control over sine 60% of the Strip, and while there is no rush to initiate a large-scale ground re-entry due to more pressing northern threats, Israel is backing President Trump’s 20-point post-war plan to gradually replace Hamas with an International Stabilization Force (ISF), technocratic governance, and local clans.