Putin Is the New King of Syria
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
24/10/2019
Articles Archive
Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Total of 114 articles in English
Dr. Jonathan Spyer is one of the very few Western/Israeli experts to have traveled extensively in Syria, Iraq and the Kurdish areas during the recent years of conflict. He is the author of Days of the Fall: A Reporter’s Journey in the Syria and Iraq Wars (Routledge, December 2017), and The Transforming Fire: the Rise of the Israel-Islamist Conflict (Continuum, 2010). He is a regular contributor to Jane’s Intelligence Review, has published in leading journals and media outlets including Middle East Quarterly, Times (of London), Foreign Policy, Wall Street Journal, Guardian, Haaretz, Atlantic, Australian, National Post, Globe and Mail, Jerusalem Report, Jerusalem Post and others; and has appeared on CNN, al-Jazeera, Fox, BBC, Sky, and other outlets. He holds a Ph.D. in international relations from the London School of Economics and an MA in Middle East politics from the School of Oriental and African Studies, London. He is also a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.
Recent events in Iraq’s Nineveh Province demonstrate the apparent helplessness of the Iraqi government in the face of Iran-backed Shia militias.
Both Pakistani and Israeli concerns currently militate against any imminent warming of ties.
The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”
More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.
Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
With the regional focus elsewhere, violence in Syria grinds on. International backers of the various enclaves have a greater say in the direction of events than do their Syrian clients.
Hizballah today controls the key nodes of power in Lebanon, while allowing the formal structures of the Lebanese state to exist – for its own benefit.
In the remote deserts of western Iraq, Iran’s servants are busily at work preparing a new front against Israel.
The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.
Total of 114 articles in English
88 articles
From defense spending to agriculture, water management, drip irrigation, pharmaceuticals, and the tech field, the deepening connection between Jerusalem and New Delhi…
Despite significant signs of rapprochement between Ankara and Damascus, the situation of de facto partition and frozen conflict seems likely to continue…
A notable change of the rules of engagement has taken place, in which the totality of Iranian actions will now be opposed,…
For mid-level regional powers, avoiding non-essential friction with a major power like Russia is seen as an imperative, particularly in a situation…
Incensed by recent government gains in Yemen, the Iranians seek to intimidate the UAE into reversing course. At this juncture, it is…
The most significant political process underway concerning Syria is the attempt by several Arab states to secure the diplomatic rehabilitation of the…
In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was…
The lack of a coherent Western strategy for the containment and rollback of Iran in the Middle East in worrying.
The current situation stands as a stark warning to all countries faced with infiltration by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its…
Arab diplomatic efforts unlikely to shift Tehran’s extensive infrastructure.
US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent…
Iraq is already part of the northern crescent of threats facing Israel. The US presence, broader policy regarding Iran makes Israeli action…
As ever, Iran prefers to avoid direct involvement. But without its backing, support and expertise, the latest Hamas offensive against Israel would…
Neither Ankara nor Tehran want a strong Iraq, or a strong Syria. On the contrary, the fragmentation of these countries suits both.
A flurry of Middle East-related Russian diplomatic activity is noteworthy because it reflects Moscow’s multi-faceted approach to the region.
The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch…
The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.
The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the…
Turkey and Pakistan’s growing closeness has deep foundations. These are two countries following a similar trajectory.
Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.
Only the very optimistic could believe in real strategic cooperation between Erdogan’s regime and Jerusalem.
Erdoğan has created a private military and paramilitary system. He deploys this apparatus for domestic and foreign operations without official oversight.
Israel seeks to disrupt Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons, and to reverse the Iranian project to entrench its forces in Iraq,…
The efforts of Moscow to assert itself as a power in the eastern Mediterranean should sound a cautionary note.
Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.
Killing of prominent adviser shows the determination of Iranian-backed Shia militias to resist any attempt to curtail their powers and freedom of…
From northwest Iraq to Tripoli on Libya’s African coast, Turkey is flexing its muscles – without the slightest nod to the supposedly…
A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.
Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under…
A moribund terrorist group, the PFLP, is experiencing a revival and launching terror attacks, with help from Iran.
There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by…
The virus has no political preferences, and its generalized assault has led to cooperation in some arenas between bitter rivals.
The ‘ghost caliphate’ – Sunni Arab insurgency – is likely to persist in the remote, poor and sparsely governed areas of Syria…
Only an integrated political, military and economic strategy targeting the Iranian system in all its aspects, with a long-term commitment to local…
A key aspect of the ongoing political crisis in Iraq is the anger directed at foreign meddling, and specifically, at the role…
The Iranian regime’s response to the coronavirus crisis has been erratic and flailing.
Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.
Trump’s peace plan calls attention to the fact that the Arab bloc that championed the Palestinian cause has collapsed.
Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.
Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.
The new government is the product of escalating popular protests under way since October 15. The protests are in response to Lebanon’s…
Iran’s attacks against the US in Iraq accomplished what was intended
What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.
Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in…
The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.
Will the people succeed in undermining the Iranian plan to spread power across the region?
Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.
The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.
While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.
The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or…
Recent events in Iraq's Nineveh Province demonstrate the apparent helplessness of the Iraqi government in the face of Iran-backed Shia militias.
Both Pakistani and Israeli concerns currently militate against any imminent warming of ties.
The Turkey-Qatar-Muslim Brotherhood alliance first came to prominence in the early, optimistic months of the “Arab Spring.”
More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.
Turkish forces are also present in northern Iraq, where they are engaged in action against the PKK presence in the Kurdish-controlled north.
With the regional focus elsewhere, violence in Syria grinds on. International backers of the various enclaves have a greater say in the…
Hizballah today controls the key nodes of power in Lebanon, while allowing the formal structures of the Lebanese state to exist –…
In the remote deserts of western Iraq, Iran’s servants are busily at work preparing a new front against Israel.
The notion that Hamas could be incentivised by the injection of funds from Qatar has proven erroneous or deeply problematic.
Events in Sudan and Libya suggest that the core dynamic in the Arab world has not changed: authoritarian military regimes and political…
The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.
Armed opposition groups emerging from the Kurdish, Baloch and Ahvazi Arab minorities have stepped-up attacks on regime assets in Iran. Tehran is…
The Iraqi Shi'ite militias form a single, numerous and increasingly able component of the military and paramilitary assets available to Iran in…
One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled…
Trump’s hurried exit from Syria, under pressure from a Turkish threat, will be interpreted by all sides as a strategic defeat, an…
Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.
The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of…
Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it's not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
The US can and should develop a coherent region-wide strategy, involving US allies including Israel, to impede Iran’s ability to continue developing…
JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this…
The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a…
It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in…
None of the new threats in the region constitutes a threat to the viability or continued existence of the State of Israel.…
Iran enjoyed and benefited from the moment when the Arab world was at its most fragmented, and the West at its most…
Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the…
It's not an Assad victory — it's a frozen conflict.
The biggest loser in the May 6 elections was the Future Movement of Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri.
Does Israel require that all presence of the Iranians be removed from Syria, down to the last proxy fighter? If so, then…
The wars in Syria are far from over. Israeli policy has been largely successful in preventing the fire from Syria coming over…
“Sadat” is heavily involved in Ankara’s training of Syrian Sunni rebels for the fight against Assad.
Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between…
All indications suggest that for Turkey, the recent battles were only a phase in a larger process. So where might Turkey turn…
Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.
How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the…
4 articles
A briefing by experts of the JISS
Watch this video briefing by JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer about flashpoints across the Mideast, from North Africa to Iran; especially conflicts…
Watch Mrs. Micky Aharonson and Dr. Jonathan Spyer of JISS brief the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations (February 2020).…
22 articles
Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Implications of the revival of contacts between Syria and Turkey
The latest killings in Iran may indicate a notable shift in Israeli strategy
The gaps between Western and non-Western US allies on the Ukraine war
Current trends in Syria and how they affect Israel's national interest
Current trends in Syria and the Israeli national interest
Will a US-Saudi rift affect Israel?Inbar and Spyer: Biden’s push for human rights will backfire, especially if coupled with U.S. inaction regarding…
In first, Saudi paper prints op-ed by Israelis - on Erdogan's private militiasFellows at Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security pen analysis…
Les milices privées reniables d’Erdoğan déstabilisent le Moyen-OrientLeur rôle est de faire avancer son grand plan de rétablissement de pouvoir sur d’anciens…
New joint ventures hint at ‘burgeoning relationship’ between Israel and India. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: No other burgeoning relationship, whether Vietnam, South Korea,…
Don’t Expect Iraqi Stability Anytime Soon. Interview with Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Soleiman’s ‘Potent Legacy’: Giant Shi’ite Fighting Force From Iran to the Mediterranean. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Preserving the militias intact is now the…
“There’s no panic or despair. But a deep sense of betrayal” Turkey’s Syria offensive could displace over a million Kurds, top analyst…
Iran, Russia, US & Israel Play High-Stakes Geopolitical Chess in Persian Gulf. Interviews with Dr. Jonathan Spyer and Dr. Yossi Mansharof.
Experts Divided Over US Decision on Golan Heights. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Israel's de facto control of the Golan is not in doubt,…
Netanyahu tells Putin Israel will continue to strike against Iran in Syria. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Israel needs Russia to remain on the…
Russia and Israel step back from brink after Syria downs military plane. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: Russia will not stand in the way…
on the nexus between Syria, Iran, Russia and Israel Dr Jonathan Spyer discusses how the interests of Russia, Iran and Israel are…
Suspected Israeli strikes hit Iran-linked targets in Syria, escalating regional tensions. Dr. Jonathan Spyer of JISS: With Israel determined to prevent the…
'MISSION ACCOMPLISHED' IN SYRIA WOULD BE BLESSING FOR ASSAD, TROUBLE FOR ISRAEL. Dr. J. Spyer: Jerusalem remains concerned that the US and…
Syria: Where Chaos Theory Meets Murphy’s Law. Dr. Jonathan Spyer: A whole series of other contests that have little to do with…
