The recent elections in Slovenia may prove more significant than they initially appear. Within days of the center-right opposition’s victory, the incoming government signaled a sharp departure from its predecessor’s policies—including a noticeably more favorable approach toward Israel. The speed of the reversal was striking. Yet, the importance of the Slovenian election may extend far beyond the country’s two million citizens. It raises a broader question: Is Europe beginning to experience the same political transformation that has swept across Latin America in recent years?

Political change often swings across regions like a pendulum . Voters observe developments in neighboring countries, compare economic and social outcomes, and frequently respond to similar challenges in similar ways. Periods of ideological stability can therefore give way to powerful regional waves that push governments either leftward or rightward.

Latin America offers a recent example of this phenomenon. During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, much of the continent experienced the rise of left-wing governments. Countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, and Venezuela elected leaders who advocated greater state involvement in the economy, expanded social programs, and a more independent foreign policy vis-à-vis the United States. For a time, this “Pink Tide” appeared to be the dominant political force across the region.

Over time, however, economic stagnation, inflation, rising public debt, crime, corruption scandals, and growing dissatisfaction with government performance began to erode public support for many of these administrations. As voters searched for alternatives, the political pendulum gradually started to swing in the opposite direction.

The election of Javier Milei in Argentina in 2023 marked an important turning point. Within a few years, similar political shifts occurred or appeared increasingly likely in several countries across the region. Combined with the collapse of Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, these developments suggest that Latin America’s political center of gravity has moved decisively to the right.

Europe today may be entering a comparable phase.

Across the continent, voters are expressing growing frustration with sluggish economic growth, declining competitiveness, high living costs, immigration pressures, concerns about public security, and what many perceive as a widening gap between political elites and ordinary citizens. These concerns have fueled the rise of nationalist, populist, and conservative parties in numerous countries.

In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has suffered significant political setbacks, including disappointing local election results and mounting criticism from within and outside his party. At the same time, Nigel Farage and Reform UK have continued to gain support among voters who believe that the traditional political establishment has failed to address their concerns.

In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s approval ratings remain deeply depressed, while Jordan Bardella and the National Rally have successfully expanded their appeal beyond their traditional base and are increasingly viewed as a credible governing alternative.

In Germany, the mainstream parties continue to dominate government, yet the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has established itself as a major political force, attracting voters concerned about immigration, energy policy, economic competitiveness, and the country’s future direction.

If substantial political shifts were to occur in these three countries, the consequences would likely reverberate throughout Europe. Together, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany remain the continent’s principal political and economic centers. As in Latin America, voters elsewhere would closely monitor the results. Electoral victories by right-leaning parties in these countries could encourage similar developments in Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, and beyond, creating a broader continental trend.

Such a shift would likely have important domestic consequences. Immigration policies could become more restrictive, with greater emphasis on border control, deportation of illegal migrants, and national integration. The pace of European integration might slow as governments seek to reclaim powers from Brussels and reinforce national sovereignty. Climate policies could be recalibrated to place greater emphasis on economic competitiveness, industrial policy, and energy security.

The international implications could be equally significant. Europe might adopt a more assertive approach toward protecting domestic industries from Chinese competition and reducing strategic dependence on foreign supply chains. Relations with the United States could become less confrontational, more pragmatic, and increasingly focused on burden-sharing within NATO. European governments might also take a firmer stance toward Islamist extremism and illegal migration, influencing their broader approach to the Middle East.

At the same time, it would be a mistake to assume that a rightward shift in Europe would mirror Latin America’s transformation in every respect.

Unlike Latin America, Europe possesses a broad strategic and cultural consensus that extends across much of the political spectrum. Except for parties at the far left and far right, there is substantial agreement on key issues such as support for democratic institutions, commitment to NATO, opposition to Russian expansionism, and the general framework of European cooperation.

This reality has important implications for Israel. A move from left to right does not necessarily imply a dramatic shift in attitudes toward Israel and the Palestinians. While some governments may adopt more balanced positions, reduce support for boycotts, moderate their rhetoric, and become more open to cooperation with Israel, expectations of a dramatic realignment, including a significant shift in their cautious approach toward the U.S.-Israel war with Iran, may prove exaggerated.

The Slovenian case illustrates this point. A new government may quickly alter the tone of bilateral relations and reverse symbolic decisions taken by its predecessor. Yet Europe is unlikely to replicate the enthusiastic embrace that Israel has received from some of Latin America’s newly elected right-wing governments. The more probable outcome is a gradual movement toward greater balance rather than a wholesale strategic realignment.

Italy provides another useful example. Since 2022, the country has been governed by a center-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni. Yet despite its conservative orientation, the Italian government has not hesitated to criticize Israeli policies when it deemed such criticism warranted. Similar patterns can be observed elsewhere in Europe, where foreign policy is often shaped as much by national interests and strategic traditions as by partisan ideology.

A similar continuity is likely to characterize Europe’s approach to the war in Ukraine. Concerns about Vladimir Putin’s long-term ambitions extend across both the left and the right in most European countries. A more conservative Europe would probably continue the trend already underway: increasing defense spending, strengthening military preparedness, and supporting Ukraine through financial aid, weapons transfers, intelligence sharing, and military training. What is unlikely to change is Europe’s reluctance to commit its own troops directly to combat operations on Ukrainian soil.

History counsels caution when forecasting political trends. Pendulums rarely swing indefinitely in one direction. Just as Latin America’s leftward wave eventually encountered resistance and gave way to a rightward correction, any conservative surge in Europe would eventually face its own tests once opposition movements became governing parties. Voters ultimately judge governments by results rather than rhetoric.

Nevertheless, Latin America’s recent experience demonstrates how rapidly regional political realignments can occur once public sentiment reaches a tipping point. Slovenia’s election may ultimately be remembered not merely as a national political event but as one of the first visible signs that in Europe, too, the pendulum has begun to swing. Economic pressures, migration debates, security concerns, and growing dissatisfaction with established political institutions are creating conditions for a potentially significant political transformation—one whose consequences could shape both Europe and the wider international system for years to come.

JISS Policy Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.