Saudi Arabia

The US decision to withdraw support from the battle against the Houtis in Yemen signals a change of direction away from staunch backing of Western allies in the contest with Iran, and towards an attempt at “balancing” between rival regional powers, along the lines attempted by the Obama Administration.

The Houthis provide deniability for an Iranian campaign of aggression.

Will a US-Saudi rift affect Israel?
Inbar and Spyer: Biden’s push for human rights will backfire, especially if coupled with U.S. inaction regarding Iran and a return to the failed 2015 nuclear deal.

Israel should exploit the expanding rift between Ankara and Tehran to normalize its relations with Turkey. This also could bring Turkey into the circle of countries supporting the Abraham Accords.

The desire for an end to war in Yemen is understandable. Unfortunately, however, the US has leverage over only one of the sides.

With US cold shoulder, should Israel now pivot towards France?
Col. Olivier Rafowicz: France’s political interests currently dovetail with Israel’s on multiple issues. Col. Eran Lerman: Israel needs to be more closely coordinated with Paris.

In first, Saudi paper prints op-ed by Israelis - on Erdogan's private militias
Fellows at Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security pen analysis of Turkish leader's proxy armies, based on joint research with a UAE think tank.

On JISS-TRENDS joint research published in Saudi Arabia
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak

Benjamin Netanyahu visits Saudi Arabia
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: The meeting sets the stage before finding out what will be Biden's policy.

Arabs states draw closer to Israel to counter non-Arab powers Turkey and Iran
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak: Almost in every theater, Turkey, Qatar and Hamas are challenging the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

UAVs, which used to be supportive weapons systems, are rapidly maturing into decisive weapons. Israel now faces threats from the entire spectrum of unmanned aerospace vehicles, ranging from Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs) to Kamikaze drones and precision ballistic missiles.

Will Sudan and Saudi Arabia Join the Party?
Dr. Joshua Krasna: The Saudis want to use normalization with Israel as leverage in the event of the installation of a more unsympathetic government in the United States.

China aims to play a more proactive role in the Middle East, maintaining cordial relations with all rival countries. Beijing attaches great importance to its ties with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Egypt, and therefore has welcomed the Abraham Accords (albeit in lukewarm fashion, because of tensions with the Trump administration).

Progress, not peace: Breaking down the Trump-brokered deals between Israel, Arab states
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Unfortunately, the Palestinian liberation national movement still has dreams that are unlikely to be achieved.

On Israeli flights over Saudi Arabia and regional normalization
Dr. Emmanuel Navon on i24news

Israel is a key player in the crisis currently unfolding in the eastern Mediterranean basin, on the same side as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Greece.

If the enemy of my enemy gets the bomb: Saudi nuclear plan gives Israel headache
Dr. Joshua Krasna: I am sure we would be happy if the Saudis didn’t work toward nuclear weapons. But that is not the same as saying we have a significant impetus to do something about it.

This paper reviews the responses of Middle Eastern countries to the spread of the coronavirus and highlights diplomatic and defense implications stemming from the situation. The assessment of JISS fellows is that the coronavirus crisis will not fundamentally change power dynamics in the region or alter the prevailing ambitions and policies of key countries.

Israel needs to make clear to Washington the harm done in the region, and the potential for more harm, by the perception of American policy disarray, weakness and withdrawal.

The key to avoiding a Saudi-style debacle in Israel is prior intelligence and seamless early warning systems.

Will Saudi Arabia establish full diplomatic ties with Israel?
Dr. Joshua Krasna: I don’t think it’s likely we will see formal diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, or indeed with any of the Gulf Arab states, at any time in the near future.

Why is murder by Iran, but not Saudi Arabia, permissible?
Dr. Emmanuel Navon: While it is outrageous for President Trump to let Saudi Arabia get away with murder, the atomic agreement was also indefensible. At the end of the day this is about realpolitik.

Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to Oman, the first overt visit in over twenty years by an Israeli prime minister to an Arab country that does not maintain diplomatic relations with Israel, is extremely significant. However, formal diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab states will not develop without an Israeli-Palestinian agreement. While it may view positively the steps of other Gulf states to increase the visibility of their ties with Israel and it may even encourage them, Saudi Arabia itself will not formal ties with Israel in the foreseeable future either.

The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian Consulate in Istanbul is a fascinating story with potentially far-reaching regional and global implications. How will it affect Israel?

The Saudi Crown Prince isn’t a democrat or a strategic savior, but don’t give the evil leaders of Turkey and Iran a victory by weakening US-Saudi ties.

Khashoggi and the Jewish Question.
Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman of JISS: “It is certainly not in Israel’s interests to see the status of the Saudi government diminished in Washington.”

Bad management, corruption and a failure of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action to generate expected levels of foreign investment compound the problem.

SAUDIS PUBLICLY OPPOSE U.S. EXITING SYRIA WHILE ISRAEL OBJECTS QUIETLY
Col. Lerman: US withdrawal from Syria would have very negative consequences for Israel and the region

Funds and favor for Saudi Arabia 2.0, and also to smash Iran.

Israel should not bear-hug the problematic Saudis, nor fall prey to over-enthusiastic fantasies. Don’t assume that MBS is the answer to Israel’s prayers in facing-down Iran.

Y. Amidror: "The Saudis have crossed the Rubicon"

On Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia. Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman

A few seemingly unrelated incidents that took place across the Middle East this week all seem to point out that much of the regional unrest can be traced back to Iran, which is backing Shiite forces from Pakistan to Syria. That is unlikely to change.