The assumption that the virus will curb Middle East conflicts does not stand the test of reality. Israel must remain on high security alert.
Long live the Tsar.
An interview with Miki Aharonon about Putin’s visit to Israel.
Russia’s displeasure with Israel simmers as Putin readies to visit for Yad Vashem event.
Micky Aharonson of JISS: It is important for Putin to portray himself as anti-fascist and a fighter against anti-Semitism. This gives him credit in the international community.
Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.
Moscow’s trouble with Israelis has a deeper meaning.
Micky Aharonson: The Naama Issachar case is “surrounded by so many other things, such as the growing anger of the Russian military and security establishment towards Israel.”
At a recent conference on the Mideast economy in Doha, which included the participation of Israeli scholars, discussions highlighted changes in the regional balance of power. Acceptance of Assad’s rule in Syria is growing, but so are questions about how Syria’s rehabilitation will be financed. And some Iranians are signaling that Tehran is willing to make political compromises to alleviate economic pressures.
Syria remains the main point of contention between the two countries.
Will the loaded, long-distance relationship between Russia and Israel last?
Micky Aharonson: “There is a positive tone in the discussions, but it is disconnected from Russia’s strategic decisions, which are based on Russian interests.”
Outwardly, Russia is loyal to the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the reason for Middle East unrest. This approach raises the bar on Palestinian demands and makes normal life in the region less likely.
Venezuela has become flash point between Russia and the US. The way in which America responds to Russian conduct in its backyard will influence Russia’s international conduct in the future.
The Houthi rebellion in Yemen, with its horrendous consequences for the country’s civilian population, is being instigated primarily by Iranian assistance and direction for the rebels, together with Russian growing involvement in the conflict. An end to the fighting therefore depends to a large extent on the willingness of external countries to continue their fomenting of the conflict.
Russia seeks to be more involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by presenting it as critical to the stability of the whole Middle East. But the legitimacy that it accords to Hamas rules out deeper Russian involvement from Israel’s point of view.
