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Home / Policy Papers / Syria

Syria

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah ALI KHAMENEI on May 08, 2022 during a meeting with Syrian President BASHAR AL-ASSAD

The Meeting Between Assad and Khameini: What was on the Table? 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad might have decided to cement his friendship with Tehran, fearing that Moscow’s capacity to invest in Syria’s reconstruction would be negatively affected. Assad may also try to play Iran against its Gulf rivals to draw resources from both.

Dr. Marta Furlan
Policy Papers 26.05.2022
Iran Syria
An area in the rebel-held al-Balad district of Daraa that has been destroyed by the Syrian government's artillery and air force during an offensive in June 2017.

What does the Deraa surrender mean for Iran and Russia in Syria?

In the southwest, the outside powers of relevance are Iran and Russia. The arrangement in place from July 2018 until now was the product of an uneasy standoff between them.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.09.2021
Syria
syria in the middle iran flag

Iran digs deep in hollowed-out Syria

Arab diplomatic efforts unlikely to shift Tehran’s extensive infrastructure.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.07.2021
Iran Syria
BIDEN WITH SYRIA MAPS BACKGROUND

Strategic Incoherence Continued: US Policy Towards Syria Under Biden

US determination to draw down in the Middle East, which characterized the Obama, Trump and now Biden administrations, appears likely to prevent the development of any coherent strategy.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.06.2021
Syria
The fence of the border between Israel and Syria as seen from a hill on the Golan Heights about 10 kilometers south/south-east of the city Al Quneitra

The Israel-Russia-Syria deal: Cost, beneficiaries and future deals

As Israel and Syria concluded a deal on the return of an Israeli woman from Syria, questions arise regarding the cost and what the future of such transactions with Russian mediation should be.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 03.03.2021
Israel - Russia relations Syria

Time to Update Israeli Policy Toward Syria

Israel should (silently) support a more flexible US policy towards the Syrian regime and the Russian presence in Syria, including the easing of sanctions on Syria, in order to decrease Assad’s dependence on Iranian support and to heighten the conflicts of interest between Moscow and Tehran.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 15.02.2021
Syria
Protestor holding a photo of Assad

The Israeli Interest: Keep Syria Weak

Israel should reject any overtures from the Assad government, and help keep “maximum pressure” on the regime.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 02.10.2020
Syria
Assad and Putin middle east illustration

The Tensions between Assad and Iran Present an Opportunity in Syria

Israel and the US may have an opportunity to incentivize Assad and Putin to cooperate in constraining Iran's presence in Syria.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Dr. Aiman Mansour , Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 26.07.2020
Iran Syria
syria, russia, iran flags and deraa

Rising Tensions and Security Chaos in Syria’s Deraa Province

A four-way contest under way between the Assad regime, Russian interests, Iranian interests, and unreconciled former rebels.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.06.2020
Iran Russia
assad and syria illustration

Syria’s dictator Bashar Assad faces renewed challenges at all levels

Bashar Assad is not about to fall, But economic deterioration, regime infighting, sanctions and unrest are combining to place his regime under renewed, severe pressure.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 14.06.2020
Middle Eastern economy Syria
Relationship between the Israel and the Syria. Two flags of countries on background. 3D rendered illustration.

Israel’s strategy in Syria is less coherent than it seems

There is a discrepancy between the stated goal – the expulsion of Iran from Syria – and the means being employed by Israel to achieve it.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 10.05.2020
Syria
map_of_idlib_ceasefire_march_2020

Idlib, the next phase of the Turkish-Syrian conflict

Russia’s desire to woo Turkey from the West likely to prevent all-out war.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 11.03.2020
Russia Syria

Iran, Hezbollah stir chaos in Syria’s southwest

Behind Enemy Lines: Iran, Hezbollah and ongoing, armed resistance to Syria’s regime merge to create constant chaos.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 21.02.2020
Iran Syria
A hand with a drawn Russia flag holds a ball with a drawn Syria flag, a sign of influence, pressure or conservation and protection. Horizontal frame

Do Syria-Turkey clashes presage a wider confrontation in the Middle East?

Despite Syrian-Turkish clashes this week, Moscow is set to remain the key arbiter in Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.02.2020
Russia Syria
vladimir_putin_in_syria_2020-01-07_22

Putin’s surprise visit to Syria

Meeting with Assad sent clear messages to the countries of the region.

Ms. Micky Aharonson , Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 22.01.2020
Russia Syria
us_capitol_building_at_night_jan_2006

Could Congress’ latest Syria sanctions bill backfire?

The congressional bill will exacerbate the economic situation in Syria and ultimately increase Syria’s dependency on Iran.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 13.01.2020
Syria US Middle East Policy
patrouille_turque_kobane_5_novembre_2019

The Precarious Lull in Northeast Syria

New Year, Same Chaos in Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.01.2020
Syria
hayat_tahrir_al-sham_flag

The Battle for Northwestern Syria: Better Sooner than Later

It is in Israel’s interest that Assad regain control of northwestern Syria. Aside from improving the economic situation in Syria, this may increase Israeli leverage in the campaign against Iran's military entrenchment.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 11.12.2019
Syria
A figure of a Shooting Man with mountains as abackdrop

The Fighting Continues in Northern Syria

The Kurds vow to defend themselves—alone if necessary—against Syria, Turkey and Russia.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
02.12.2019
Kurds Syria
Fuel pump nozzle in hand with flag on background - Syria

Making the Best of US Withdrawal from Syria

Given Iran’s presence in Syria, Israel must employ focused, operative rhetoric and policy versus the strategic threats it faces.

Dr. Aiman Mansour
Policy Papers 24.11.2019
Iran Syria
flags_of_turkey_and_rojava

Northern Syria and Israel

Israel must adapt as quickly as possible to the evolving situation in northern Syria, while continuing to adhere to self-reliance and invest in its military.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 07.11.2019
Syria
claimed_and_de_facto_territory_of_rojava

Rojava Sundown – A Retrospective

Islamic State, that most malignant expression of the Sunni Islamist trend, was the natural enemy of this emergent Kurdish autonomy.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Syria
kurds

No Reason for Kurdish Surprise

Once again, Kurds are complaining of “betrayal.”

Mr. Lazar Berman
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Kurds Syria
Dec, 2017: Donald Trump portrait on a blue background. Vector illustration of the President of United States Donald Trump

Beyond the Chorus of Indignation

Trump’s Syria decision accords with previous presidential decisions and is not necessarily a disaster for Israel.

Professor Efraim Inbar
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Syria US Middle East Policy
Bangkok, Thailand - December 21, 2017: A Waxwork Of Vladimir Put

Putin Is the New King of Syria

The U.S. withdrawal makes Russia the new arbiter of everyone’s interests, including Israel’s.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.10.2019
Russia Syria
baris_pinari_harekati_sonrasi_resulayn_serekani_bombalaniyor

Understanding the Dynamics behind Turkey’s ‘Operation Peace Spring”

On "Kurdophobia," Refugees and Reviving the National Pact Borders.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak
Policy Papers 16.10.2019
Syria Turkey
riseup4rojava_berlin_2019-10-10_07

Beyond Outrage

What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 16.10.2019
Kurds Syria
the-turkish-invasion-of-northeast-syria

The Turkish Invasion of Northeast Syria

While a determined Western-led effort to halt the Turkish invasion could still prevent Russian, Iranian and IS gains, time is growing short.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.10.2019
Syria Turkey
Chonburi, Thailand - February 17, 2018: Us Marine In Jungle Camo

The lessons of betrayal in northern Syria

The move confirms that the current US administration is not interested in heading an alliance of regional forces against Iranian expansionism or Sunni political Islam, but is, like its predecessor, managing imperial decline.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.10.2019
Syria
syrian map

The Syrian Sideshow

With the regional focus elsewhere, violence in Syria grinds on. International backers of the various enclaves have a greater say in the direction of events than do their Syrian clients.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.07.2019
Syria
נשיא איראן ובשאר אסאד

Iran’s Struggle to Entrench Itself in Syria

Iran is continually expanding its military, economic and political presence in Syria. Bashar al-Assad’s February 25 visit to Iran was an important marker in these efforts. Assad met with Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani, who labeled him the “hero of the Arab world.” The presence of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 27.05.2019
Iran Syria

Syria’s Civil War Is Now 3 Civil Wars

The fight to depose Assad is over. The battle over his regime’s boundaries has no end in sight.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 24.03.2019
Syria

The Fall of the Caliphate

No new beginnings in sight for ravaged Syria.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 12.03.2019
Syria

Syria’s Return to the Arab Fold

Arab countries are re-normalizing their relations with the Assad regime, seeking to balance the strong Iranian and Turkish influences in Syria and to achieve some degree of influence in a new Syrian political-strategic structure. This further cements a Russian-oriented strategic architecture in the region. In the long term, this could lead to tensions between conservative Arab states and Israel, if Israel targets the Syrian military and government in the campaign against Iran, or if Israel continues to promote diplomatic recognition of its Golan annexation.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 13.02.2019
Syria
Syria flag

Iran’s Strategy for Control of Syria

One way Iran’s efforts are taking place are below the official Syrian state structures – in the arming and sponsoring of Iran-controlled paramilitary formations on Syria soil.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 04.02.2019
Iran Syria

The Withdrawal of the US from Syria in Broad Perspective

Israel will need to increase the intensity of its operations against the Iranians. US withdrawal from the arena is a good opportunity for Israel to update its strategy in Syria.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy

Trump’s Withdrawal from Syria: Not Unexpected and a Victory for the “Astana Three”

The possibility that Iran and Turkey will be emboldened by the American decision, is worrisome. The main counter to that will be robust deterrence from Israel, whose maintenance may increase the likeliness of escalation in Syria and Lebanon, and even more resort to the restraining hand of Russia.

Dr. Joshua Krasna
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy

Saving Rojava

Military, diplomatic and economic pressures can be brought to bear to preserve SDF and Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria, and to deter Turkey and Iran from conquering these areas.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 26.12.2018
Syria Turkey

A new order emerges in southern Syria as Assad regains control

Syrian regime closes accounts with West and Israel-linked rebels, as Iran builds and expands its presence in the area.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.12.2018
Iran Syria

The Murder of Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi in Raqqa

The killing of prominent Arab tribal leader Sheikh Bashir Faisal al-Huwaidi has serious implications for the US and Kurdish administered part of Syria, in which Raqqa is located. That administration of Syria has many enemies and remains fragile.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.11.2018
Syria

Iran’s Lies – A Tool for Concealing its Policy Contradictions in Syria

Iran is hiding its efforts to establish a presence in Syria, for both internal and external reasons. This policy involves numerous internal contradictions and to avoid admitting to them, the IRGC and Hezbollah are conducting a propaganda campaign.

Dr. Yossi Mansharof
Policy Papers 03.10.2018
Iran Syria

Israel’s Secret War Against Iran Is Widening

Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it's not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 09.09.2018
Iran Syria

The Real Story behind the Repatriation of Syrian Refugees

Russia is actively promoting international involvement in the reconstruction of Syria as a humanitarian effort aimed at creating the conditions for refugees to return, but in practice this will reinforce the foundations of Assad’s rule and territorial control. The US is in no hurry to respond, but the Russian initiative will not remain unanswered.

Ms. Micky Aharonson
Policy Papers 06.09.2018
Russia Syria
Idlib, a city in Syria on a map (selective focus)

Erdogan’s Dilemma

Turkey faces few good options as the Idlib offensive looms.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 05.09.2018
Syria Turkey
euphrates_liberation_brigade_in_manbij

The Future of Eastern Syria and the Israeli Interest

JISS fellow Dr. Jonathan Spyer travelled in late July to the SDF enclave in eastern Syria. He reports that maintenance of this enclave is critical to keeping a substantial physical obstacle to the Iranian goal of a contiguous corridor from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 13.08.2018
Syria
Lebanon flag with Syria flag, 3D rendering

Is southern Syria heading for ‘Lebanonization’?

The likely emergent picture in Syria, as in Lebanon, is the ongoing consolidation of another IRGC project, in the framework of a weakened and truncated Arab state, along with an ongoing Israeli effort to deter the masters of this project from acts of aggression.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 16.07.2018
Syria
Quneitra

The Fall of Dera’a

It remains deeply open to question as to whether Putin has either the will or the capability to prevent Iranian deployment in the border area.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 10.07.2018
Syria
צה"ל - שכנות טובה

Will Israel Once Again Turn its Back on Those Who Have Been on its Side?

Israel may soon face a dilemma. The "arrangement" with Russia as to the future of Syria may stave-off an Iranian presence but will pose an existential danger to the groups of rebels near the border – groups which have worked closely with the IDF to prevent direct friction with hostile elements on the line of contact. It is vital that the solutions to this challenge demonstrate to future partners that Israel does not turn its back on those who have assisted it facing a common threat.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman , Dr. Nir Boms
Policy Papers 19.06.2018
Syria
syrian map in chains

Putin’s Endgame in Syria Has Arrived

It's not an Assad victory — it's a frozen conflict.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 25.05.2018
Syria
USS Porter on Deployment

The Great Distraction of Punitive Airstrikes

Don't congratulate the administration on avoiding Russian retaliation. The humanitarian crisis in Syria remains, and the real collision course here is between Israel and Iran.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
The guided-missile destroyer USS Porter (DDG 78) conducts strike operations against a target in Syria while in the Mediterranean Sea, The Porter conducted naval operations in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations in support of U.S. national security interests in Europe. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Ford Williams)

Trump’s Promo?

The American-British-French strike in Syria should be seen as an exercise in building Western deterrence and creditability in advance of the decision expected next month regarding the nuclear deal with Iran.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
tomahawk_missile_fired_from_us_destroyers

Global tensions: No end in sight

With global tensions on the rise, Israel could find itself alone, both in the struggle to prevent a nuclear Iran and in trying to contain Iran's actions in Syria.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 15.04.2018
Syria
benjamin_netanyahu_drone_2018

Israel won’t tolerate Iranian presence in Syria

Russia may demand due consideration, but Israel has proved time and again that it will not allow Iran to tighten its grip on Syria, even if doing so stokes regional tensions.

Major General (res.) Yaakov Amidror
Policy Papers 11.04.2018
Iran Syria
American soldier with flag on background - Syria

After the Latest Chemical Attack, the US Should Stay in Syria

Israel and America must avoid one-fit-all options regarding the military challenges in different parts of disintegrating Syria.

Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman
Policy Papers 11.04.2018
Syria US Middle East Policy
salih_muslim__ulla_jelpke

The Arrest of Saleh Muslim: Escalation in Kurdish-Turkish Tensions

How the arrest of this Kurdish leader is handled will indicate the extent to which the Syrian Kurds’ central role in the fight against the Islamic State has accrued some broader political legitimacy for their leadership. This, in turn, has implications for the troubled relationship between the West and Turkey.

Dr. Jonathan Spyer
Policy Papers 28.02.2018
Kurds Syria
BERLIN - NOVEMBER 12 2017: Protest action of the Syrian opposition near Brandenburg Gate against the Russian Army in Syria.

The Russians are… Leaving?

A controlled military disentanglement, while bound to afford Putin even greater popularity at home and perhaps rebuild his popular image abroad, by no means implies that he is about to relinquish his growing influence in the Middle East.

Dr. Anna Geifman
Policy Papers 02.01.2018
Russia Syria

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