US – Iran Relations

The Biden administration's significant contribution to the Iranian economy is due to the failure to enforce the sanctions as rigidly as it was during the Trump era. For example, Iran increased its oil exports during the Biden era and increased foreign trade volume.

Organized crime provides Iran with plausible deniability because these acts appear to be carried out informally. Israel must institutionalize and strengthen global and regional collaboration to counter Iran's Narco-Terrorism.

America’s ‘Plan B’ in case Iran talks fail not ‘well-formulated enough’

What is ‘Plan B’ for Israel or America if Iran nuclear deal goes unsigned?

US obsession with Palestinians and appeasement of Iran dampened Negev Summit

The withdrawal of American forces from the Middle East may have strategic merits. The rationale for a contracted global military seems to match what American strategists have termed “offshore balancing,” which means that the U.S. holds fewer overseas bases but maintains its military capability to intervene in distant regions when necessary.

Congress takes aim at Iranian drone issue as concerns mount

It is not in America’s interest for Israel to be perceived as an obedient lap dog. On the contrary, keeping Israel’s options open, or even enhancing them, will ultimately prove to be of value to the US.

The American hope for the resumption of the talks, and the talks themselves, give the Iranians more freedom of action. They restrict US activity in response to mounting provocations.

Briefing by Colonel (res.) Dr. Eran Lerman - October 17, 2021

Even if Israel’s ability to influence US decision-making is limited, it is a serious mistake to downplay Israel's opposition to the dangerous nuclear accord.

Mideast experts: Leaked Zarif tape exposes Iran narrative of so-called ‘moderates,’ ‘hardliners’
Prof. Efraim Inbar: There is no distinction between moderates and hardliners. All of Iran’s leaders have the same goals of kicking the Americans out of the Middle East, taking it over and going for the bomb.

In DC, Israel’s top spy and security wonk face a mission impossible on Iran
Dr. Eran Lerman: They can move the needle a bit, but their trip is unlikely to prevent the Biden administration from barreling towards a deal with Tehran.

Sanctions relief, nothing else. Iran has no intention of forsaking its nuclear and missile programs nor its proxy wars across the region.

By ignoring Israel’s views on an issue critical to its security, Washington will cast a dark shadow over Israel’s status as a key American ally in the Middle East.

On the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna
Interview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon

On renewed Iran-US nuclear talks
Interview with Dr. Emmanuel Navon

Israel-US dialogue is necessary about Iran’s nuclear program, since a good agreement with Iran is a clear Israeli interest. But Israel must be prepared with a military option against Iran, as a last resort.

Jerusalem views with trepidation the possibility that the Biden administration will embark on a human rights crusade in the Middle East.

JISS Briefing by Prof. Efraim Inbar, 31.01.2021

Former Israeli official: Americans should not give Iranians leverage by easing sanctions
General Yaakov Amidror: The Biden administration needs to grasp that it’s a different Middle East. I don’t think the old notions and ideas will work.

On US Policy Towards Iran
Interview with Prof. Efraim Inbar

A "Clean Return," without ironclad new provisions that strengthen and lengthen the JCPOA, will diminish US clout and destabilize the Mideast.

Giving Iran unearned incentives in advance of negotiations only will bring about more Iranian provocation.

Biden's Policies Toward Israel Starkly Different From Trump's, Experts Say
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Biden is a close friend of Israel. His presence in the White House is an opportunity to rehabilitate relations with the Democratic Party.

Ex-NSC chief Amidror: Huge mistake for Biden to drop leverage on Iran
Biden should seek Iran nuke restrictions for 50 years.

Can Biden move Qatar away from Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Qatar spends enormous amounts of money in systematic support for the nefarious activities of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and its branches all over the world.

Israel should seek to persuade the Biden transition team not to offer Iran any premature concessions; it should outline what would constitute an acceptable, "stronger and longer" deal; find other international actors to support the policy suggested by Israel (possibly France and even Russia); and prepare a viable military option, both to strengthen America’s negotiating hand and as an option in the case of failure to reverse Iran's present course.

Both Biden’s and Trump’s Iran policies raise concerns in Israel
General Amidror: Israel’s redline is that Iran must not get close to a nuclear bomb. Iran can have no legitimacy for enrichment or long-term nuclear development.

As calls rise for the US to ease sanctions on Tehran, why is Netanyahu silent?
General Amidror: “Israel attacked targets in Syria yesterday, according to foreign sources. The State of Israel continues to do what it needs to do, without talking, and the Americans do whatever they think is right in terms of sanctions.”

Most of the regional players are wary an escalation between the US and Iran, a conflict which would be conducted across the Middle East and will have wide implications. If Iranian miscalculation leads President Trump to commit to a significant campaign against Tehran, countries wary of Iranian influence could change their posture, and become more explicitly in line with American positions and interests.

What appears to have caused this escalation was the departure by the Iranians from a tacit ground rule hitherto maintained.

Ktaib Hizballah, with its political, military, economic and mafia-like aspects, is the most potent enemy of the US and its allies in Iraq today.

A critical point has been reached where sanctions and military conflict connect. Tehran needs and seeks a limited military confrontation with the West in order to shore-up its legitimacy at home.

Deadlock between Washington and Tehran won’t easily turn into détente even if Trump and Rohani do find a way to meet in New York. However, even a tentative rapprochement between the US and Iran would severely strain Israel’s close ties with the White House.

TRUMP’S GOT A ‘GOOD FEELING’ ABOUT IRAN? NETANYAHU SHOULD BE NERVOUS.
Prof. Inbar: I do not see the Iranians signing on any deal that will force them to give up their nuclear capability.

US-Iranian brinkmanship.
Prof. Efraim Inbar on US-Iranian brinkmanship.

Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign must not be curtailed before Iran’s leaders truly have no choice but to capitulate to Western demands.

Iran's declaration on uranium enrichment.
Dr. Yossi Mansharof on Kan English News.

Tension between the United States and Iran.
Dr. Yossi Mansharof in an interview to "Strictly Security".

Iranians view Trump as ‘tougher’ than Obama, but will it push them to more extreme actions?
Prof. Efraim Inbar: Trump is trying to intimidate Iran to come to the negotiating table.

Israel needs to be prepared for potentially dramatic consequences, including rapid deterioration towards confrontation on all Israel’s borders. Resilience and readiness to act can serve to deter provocations by Iran’s proxies. Ultimately, only a credible military threat from Israel will indicate to friend and foe alike that in a showdown, Iran will be forced to back down.

Professor Efraim Inbar on escalation in US-Iran tensions.

Interview with Dr. Eran Lerman on Iran crisis.
With Israelis closely watching developments between the US and Iran, as well as Iran’s actives through its proxies in the Persian Gulf, TIP spoke with Col. in reserves, Dr. Eran Lerman, for his assessment of the situation.

Iran is not likely to target American troops, since Teheran’s strategy is to wait-out the Trump administration.