Iran

Iran has become a significant supplier of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) to Russia for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s agreement to violate the unofficial arms embargo that the world imposes on Russia has political and military significance to Israel that may be reflected in limiting Israel’s freedom of action in Syria. In the short time since their introduction on Ukraine’s battlefields, the Iranian UAVs proved their lethality and the difficulty in defending against them. Undoubtedly, Iran’s armed forces will gain valuable lessons from the operation of its UAVs in a high-intensity war. Israel must follow the developments closely.

Iran’s military assistance to Russia in its war with Ukraine represents strengthening relations between those countries. However, it is uncertain whether that relationship will significantly impact Israel’s security.

The Biden administration's significant contribution to the Iranian economy is due to the failure to enforce the sanctions as rigidly as it was during the Trump era. For example, Iran increased its oil exports during the Biden era and increased foreign trade volume.

Organized crime provides Iran with plausible deniability because these acts appear to be carried out informally. Israel must institutionalize and strengthen global and regional collaboration to counter Iran's Narco-Terrorism.

The IRGC officers observe Ukraine's inability to inflict damage behind Russian lines. According to an IRGC official news release, the war in Ukraine highlights the significance of missiles for Iran because they can create what is referred to as a "balance of terror" and force the enemy to the negotiating table. The military purpose of the IRGC's nuclear program is no longer a secret. They cite Ukraine's decision to give up its nuclear weapons under US supervision as evidence that Iran must maintain its nuclear deterrent.

Turkey’s mending of ties with Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and even to some extent, Egypt serves to isolate Tehran further and retaliate for the terrorist attack attempt against Israelis in Turkey.

A proactive approach against Iran’s proxies is needed.

A network of personalities and organizations in Russia can be said to be directly or indirectly promoting the interests of Iran in Russia in various fields. However, Russia and Iran are not allies and treat each other with considerable suspicion. This is a constraint for the Iranian lobbying effort.

The growing capabilities and the impressive skill of their operators elevate the threat from Iran's unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) from a nuisance to a strategic level on par with Iran's missiles and rockets threat on Israel.

Ra’isi is an absolute ideological and psychological clone of Khamenei.