Iran

Armed opposition groups emerging from the Kurdish, Baloch and Ahvazi Arab minorities have stepped-up attacks on regime assets in Iran. Tehran is responding by acting against these opponents, in Pakistan and Iraq and further afield. But these insurgencies are not capable by themselves of calling the regime’s viability into question, because of their relatively narrow bases of support.

It is highly unlikely that Iran will agree to any limitation on its missile programs, despite Trump administration pressures. For Iran's leadership, to concede on missiles is to concede on the regime’s global ambitions.

Iran’s ability to deal effectively with the sanctions reintroduced by the Trump Administration and maintain the resilience of its revolutionary regime will reflect, among other factors, the impact of mounting US pressure on the internal policy debate. If the JCPOA marked a meeting point between those who seek to focus inwards and hardliners committed to Iran’s bid for regional dominance, the sanctions may now drive a wedge between them. It is clearly in the interest of the US, Israel, and others in the region who seek to bring about a drastic change in Iranian behavior to drive this wedge

Israel’s opposition to Iranian entrenchment in Syria and Lebanon is twofold: To prevent Iran from building a beachhead against Israel through its proxies on Israel’s borders, and to impede development of Iran’s nuclear and long-range missile capabilities. Israel is absolutely determined and prepared to act forcefully against Iran, which could lead to a full-scale war. Israel must win this struggle against Iran, one way or another.

Iran is on the march, presenting a significant security challenge to Israel and to moderate Sunni countries. It is investing blood, figuratively and literally, in realizing its aspirations for a Shiite corridor to the Mediterranean Sea, in strengthening its influence in the region via militia forces, in building a nuclear option, and in threatening Israel.