The war with Iran has diverted attention from Tehran’s regional policies, particularly the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) transit corridor. The strategic significance of this project is immeasurable. The finalization of the project depends on several other factors, including the amendment of the Armenian constitution, which hinges on Nikol Pashinyan’s victory in the upcoming June elections.
The importance of the Armenian elections is heightened because Russia and Iran intend to interfere specifically to hinder realization of the project. If the TRIPP is finalized, both Russia and Iran will suffer a significant setback to their influence in the Caucasus. With Armenia and Azerbaijan having signed a peace treaty, neither Iran nor Russia will be able to exploit conflict between the two South Caucasian nations.
Despite the war, Tehran will persist in its support for terrorism abroad and its disruptive policies in neighboring countries. Put simply, one should not assume that the Iranian regime won’t find time to meddle in Armenian domestic affairs because it has more pressing issues at home. This modus operandi is hardwired into Iran’s strategy of “Mosaic Defense”, namely that various operations, including terrorism and disruption, may continue even absent top command.
Both Russia and Iran employ sophisticated strategies for meddling; their interference is never straightforward. In Armenia, as in other countries, they work through local agents of influence. The goal of such a modus operandi is evident: direct Russian or Iranian influence is difficult to pinpoint precisely because Armenia’s freedom of speech allows its politicians to adopt various stances, making it unclear who they represent.
Work on the TRIPP is ongoing
Armenian Foreign Minister Armen Mirzoyan told reporters that despite the tense situation in the Middle East negotiations with the United States on the TRIPP regional transit project have not slowed. Armenia and the U.S. are currently working on an interstate agreement that would specify additional legal mechanisms, Mirzoyan said, adding that on-site work would begin when the situation allows. The minister gave assurances that the project would not be used for military purposes.
Earlier in March, Pashinyan had warned that the implementation of TRIPP could be delayed, as the project is not a priority for the U.S. administration amid the war with Iran.
Disinformation against the project
Mirzoyan comments explaining the intricacies of the TRIPP did not come out of the blue. The Prime Minister’s spokesperson, Nazeli Baghdasaryan, said that disinformation surrounding the TRIPP has intensified since the start of the Iran war. She said that narratives circulating against TRIPP argues that it was not an economic or logistics project but had military or intelligence objectives directed against Iran. She added that the Armenian opposition had alleged that implementing the project would make Armenia a military target for Iran.
Baghdasaryan went on to say that Armenia has been subject to coordinated disinformation campaigns that use bot networks and AI-generated content. The government is working to counter this disinformation, and a new mechanism is being tested that would allow people in Armenia to verify the authenticity of information.
Meanwhile, pro-opposition commentator Benjamin Matevosyan has said on Telegram that the TRIPP project will either lose its meaning if Iran’s current power structure remains intact or become unnecessary if Tehran is fully absorbed into the Western sphere of influence in the hypothetical event of regime change in Iran. The post was written in Russian, not Armenian, and its content appears to be copy-and-paste from Russian propaganda clichés. Matevosyan’s professional bio is available on the website of the Russian geopolitical think tank, the Roscongress Foundation. His publication record there leaves no doubt about his alignment with the Kremlin’s goals.
Fears of economic spillover of the Iran war
According to a poll conducted by MPG LLC from April 1 to 3 to gauge public sentiment toward the war with Iran nearly 38% of respondents considered Armenia at risk of being drawn into the conflict involving Iran, Israel, and the United States. At the same time, 34.5% of respondents believed Armenia would not be drawn into the conflict, citing the country’s good relations with both Iran and the United States.
In the meantime, some economic experts, including the Economy Minister, raised concerns about the war’s impact on the Armenian economy. Minister Gevorg Papoyan said on March 18 that the domestic economy had been affected by the war, with rising prices and mounting inflation risks.
A day earlier, Armenia’s Central Bank chief, Martin Galstyan, warned that prolonged hostilities could raise Armenia’s inflation by 1.2-1.7%, compounded by the potential impact of rising oil prices.
Galstyan also said that weaker global economic activity would “inevitably” translate into slower economic progress for Armenia. In February, Armenia’s annual inflation rate rose to 4.3%, up from 3.8% in January.
Overall, large swaths of Armenia’s population feel stuck between a rock and a hard place, without real profits from the TRIPP. The population’s fatigue is another factor that may lend credence to the opposition’s criticism, even if it is orchestrated from abroad.
Methods of Russian influence
Analyst Hayk Sukiasyan said that Armenia is currently facing a coordinated effort by Moscow and its domestic agents of influence to push the country back into a subordinate regional role.
Sukiasyan argues that increased Russian pressure accelerates Armenia’s security and economic diversification. He contends that moving away from the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) has improved national security by enabling Armenia to acquire modern weapons and build more reliable international alliances. The analyst describes senior Armenian clerics and former political elites as Moscow’s primary tools for destabilizing Armenia internally.
The Armenian Apostolic Church (AAC) is engaged in active political struggle against Pashinyan’s government, thereby crossing the threshold between spiritual influence and political activism. The Kremlin actively supports the church and makes insinuations against Pashinyan, blaming his government for the oppression of the Church. In February, a demonstration in support of the head of the AAC was held in Moscow. Any demonstration in Russia must be permitted, as spontaneous demonstrations are not allowed. An Armenian activist, Vaagen Alexanian, stated, “Russian authorities reveal the most benevolent attitude toward the Armenian community, as the Armenians are the only community in Russia who enjoy the right to organize demonstrations. However, these demonstrations are held exclusively when Armenian politicians visit Russia, and the demonstrations are only those of protest against the elected Armenian representatives.”
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk referred to Armenia’s drift toward the West and threatened to block Armenian businesses from operating in Russia if the Armenian government did the same to Russian businesses in Armenia.
The main threat to the current prime minister in the June elections is the pro-Russian opposition, which is made up of three blocs, headed by the Armenian-origin Russian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, former President of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, and businessman Gagik Tsarukyan. Although they have a lot in common, they are in no hurry to unite into a single coalition because of their personal ambitions and reluctance to share voters.
Karapetyan’s party, which Putin supports, is top-ranked opposition party in the polls, behind Pashinyan’s Civil Contract. Last year, the billionaire was accused of preparing a coup d’état, which is why he remains under house arrest and his company, “Power Grids of Armenia,” was nationalized. Tsarukyan also represents the generation of businessmen who got rich in the 1990s on Armenian soil. Finally, Kocharyan is not only a former president but also a man with the image of a tough leader and a personal friend of Putin.
Iran’s stance on the elections
The Iranian regime has maintained the principle of the “immutability of international borders” as a definitive red line despite internal political changes. Before his death in an Israeli strike on February 28, Ayatollah Khamenei repeatedly stated in meetings with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan that Iran considers the Zangezur route detrimental to the region and will not allow Iran’s land connection with Armenia to be severed.
However, Iran’s military and security officials’ reactions in 2025 and 2026 have become significantly harsher. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor to the Leader, described the TRIPP as a “political conspiracy against Iran and Russia” and an attempt by NATO to crawl between the two countries like a “viper.” Yadollah Javani, the political deputy of the IRGC, also warned that if Pashinyan and Aliyev are deceived by “Trump the gambler,” the region will become a graveyard for mercenaries. Iran’s Supreme National Security Council also issued a statement emphasizing the armed forces’ full readiness to prevent any geopolitical change.
Unofficial discourse
By contrast, the unofficial discourse on social media reveals a more nuanced picture and highlights the regime’s concerns:
- Strategic isolation: Ehsan Movahedyan, a professor at Allameh Tabataba’i University, describes the TRIPP project in his analyses (widely reflected in official news agencies) as the “project to exclude Iran from the Caucasus”. He believes that the U.S., by naming this route after Trump, seeks to create a strategic dependency between regional countries and Washington. Movahedyan compares TRIPP to the Panama Canal, emphasizing that this route not only replaces Iran’s routes but also brings the U.S. into the Caspian Sea and challenges Russia’s and China’s influence in the region. He warns that if Baku truly sought peace, it would not set new daily preconditions against Armenia.
- Demographic change: The “Turkey and Caucasus Desk”, the Telegram channel of the Mersad Think Tank, highlights the risks posed by changes in the demographic shifts along Iran’s northern borders. This media outlet analyzes Azerbaijan’s plans to settle tens of thousands of “displaced persons” near Armenia’s borders, characterizing the move as an attempt to alter the demographic fabric of Syunik province and create a hostile environment toward Iran and Armenia. Furthermore, this think tank pays particular attention to the influence of radical ideologies and Pan-Turkism in the region and their impact on Iran’s national security.
- Border security: Focusing on facts on the ground, the Voice of the Caucasus Telegram Channel considers the presence of private U.S. security forces along the 43-kilometer border between Iran and Armenia a serious intelligence threat. Analyses from this channel suggests that deploying eavesdropping equipment and fiber-optic infrastructure under the management of the TRIPP consortium could disrupt Iran’s intelligence oversight of its northern borders. This media outlet also points to Armenia’s cold response to Iran’s concerns, believing that Pashinyan is trading border security for political support from Washington.
Russia has greater potential to influence democratic elections in Armenia than Iran does. Likewise, Russia and Iran oppose the TRIPP for different reasons. Yet they are aware of the Armenian population’s fatigue with both regional turmoil and domestic political infighting, even as daily living conditions show no improvement. Pashinyan decided to shift his country’s orientation toward the West and to put an end to the years-long conflict with Azerbaijan. This step has never been easy for the prime minister and his government. The U.S. administration should pay attention to these regional events given their strategic implications. The Republic of Armenia is objectively caught between Russia and Iran, so its choices are limited. America and the West should offer economic incentives to Armenia to that choosing the West and peace is also economically worthwhile.
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