A Policy-Oriented Think Tank Addressing Foreign Policy and National Security Issues for a Safe Israel

Iranian Subversion Tools in the South Caucasus

The Islamic Republic employs Shia proxies in Azerbaijan and the Church in Armenia to further its geostrategic interests in the region and fight Israel using both outright terrorist means and hybrid warfare

Iran- Azerbaijan military drill

Iran relies on the doctrine of a non-conventional (or asymmetric) war to achieve its geopolitical goals. Though no official Iranian asymmetric warfare playbook exists, Iranian officials and military officers have continuously spoken of this doctrine. Since the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2023, Iran has overtly put into play its Axis of Resistance strategy against Israel. This strategy is an integral part of Tehran’s asymmetric war doctrine. This Iranian doctrine is not confined to kinetic warfare alone. It also includes hybrid warfare, wherein non-military means complement military goals. Several years ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, called for a stronger effort to counter “attacks against the Islamic Republic using hybrid warfare.” At a gathering of Air Force officers, he stated: “The enemy’s aggression represents hybrid warfare. That is, it includes economic, political, security, media, and diplomatic aspects. Our response must be hybrid as well…We cannot constantly remain in a defensive position in the face of such joint hybrid warfare. We, too, should mount a hybrid attack in various fields…”

Hybrid war against Azerbaijan and Israel in the Caucasus

Iran is fighting Israel across the board not only through the proxies of the Axis of Resistance but also in other regions such as the Southern Caucasus. The Iranian regime attributes to Israel and the West a desire to mount plots against Iran everywhere. The regime must justify its aggressive stance because in such a way it portrays itself as a victim whereas Israel is portrayed as an aggressor.

Thus, Iran depicts the good ties between Israel and Azerbaijan as targeting Iran. Iran viewed the visit of Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to Azerbaijan in July 2023 as another step in the planning of aggression against Iran. Tehran believes that Israel is attempting to compensate for its shortage of strategic depth by establishing military bases in Azerbaijan.

The government of the Islamic Republic is deeply involved in its relationship with Azerbaijan and Armenia because of the importance the two countries have for Iran’s geostrategic interests. Iran exploits ethnic and religious factors in both Armenia and Azerbaijan to further its interests, however, its approach to Armenia and Azerbaijan differs. In Armenia, Iran attempts to tarnish the legitimacy of the elected government and exploit the Church’s nationalist position and tensions between it and the Armenian government; in Azerbaijan, the Iranian regime employs outright terrorist methods similar to its support for its terrorist proxies in the Middle East and which undermine the regime.

Huseyniyyun (Islamic Resistance Movement of Azerbaijan) is a terrorist militia made up of ethnic Azeris and designed to fight against Azerbaijan. It was established by the IRGC Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani – who was assassinated by the U.S. in January, 2020 – in the image of other pro-Iranian militias. Members of this militia and agents associated with it engage in subversive activities in Azerbaijan. Iran conducts its subversive operations in the South Caucasus using its favorite methods of hybrid and asymmetric capacities. In this regard, it is noteworthy that the newly appointed Iranian ambassador to Yerevan is Mehdi Sobhani, who previously was Tehran’s ambassador to Damascus. The appointment of Sobhani indicates the true mission of the embassy; Iranian diplomats in Syria and Lebanon have been IRGC officers. Iran’s ambassador in Syria oversees coordination with the Bashar Assad regime and with Hezbollah.

Currently, Huseyniyyun is not actively engaged in terrorist activities as Iran prefers more subtle methods of subversion. The organizations serves as a mouthpiece of the Iranian regime on various Telegram channels in the Azeri language. The main impact of Huseyniyyun is that it helps spread Iranian propaganda in Azerbaijan. Iranian propaganda efforts are very sophisticated and don’t fall short of Russia’s propaganda campaigns. The Iranian regime emphasizes “positive messaging” in the name of Shi’ite Islam and respect for the Azeri language. Whereas in Iran, Azeri media and school instruction in Azeri are forbidden, Huseyniyyun’s channels appeal to the religious feelings of the Azeris in Azeri. [1]

How does Iran exploit Armenian domestic issues for its own profit?

Iran’s dealings in the Caucasus do not always unfold in the way the regime would like them to. It is wary of the weakening of Russian influence in the region because of the war in Ukraine and closely watches the dynamics of Armenia’s relationship with Azerbaijan, Russia, and the West. For that reason, Iranian analysts reveal great interest in understanding Armenian domestic issues.

The return of the Karabakh area to Azerbaijan after two military conflicts has highlighted Russia’s inability to project power. Russia has recently withdrawn “peacekeeping” troops from Karabakh, marking the end of its traditional role as a regional power broker. The loss of this influence has prompted the Armenian leadership to seek new allies and rethink its foreign policy

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has fallen out of favor with Moscow after publicly expressing his preference for closer ties with NATO and the European Union. Pashinyan has embraced new initiatives to finally resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan.

However, it took considerable effort for Pashinyan to recognize this necessity. The Armenian leader confronts numerous challenges, both at home and abroad. Armenian society is having trouble recovering from the aftershocks of the Karabakh loss. Armenian nationalists manipulated the conflict around Karabakh, turning it into a false cornerstone of the very existence of the state, thereby misleading various segments of Armenian society. Before Pashinyan’s tenure, no Armenian leadership had ever sought realistic ways to resolve the conflict with Azerbaijan over the enclave on Azerbaijani soil.

Prime Minister Pashinyan aims to end hostility with Azerbaijan and Turkey. He recently proclaimed at a press conference: “Regarding the situation in the region, our position is as follows: Deepening relations with Iran and Georgia. Managing hostility with Turkey and Azerbaijan, reducing and ending it.” In May 2024, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached an agreement regarding the demarcation of their border. Within the framework of the agreement, Armenia gave up its claims to own the villages of Baganis Ayrim, Asagi Askipara, Xeyrimli, and Gezilxajili because they are located on Azerbaijani territory, according to the Alma-Ata Protocol, which brought the USSR to an end and formally established the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Yet Pashinyan’s realistic course has not been unanimously welcomed by Armenian society. The readiness for talks with Azerbaijan deepens the rift between Pashinyan’s government and the Armenian Church, which, for several reasons, is becoming a major political force in the country. Senior Church figures accuse the government of surrendering the country’s national interests in the talks and are openly siding with the opposition. The authorities have responded by accusing the clergy of meddling in the governance of the secular state and mused about taxing some of the Church’s property. Bishop Bagrat Galstanyan, head of the Tavush Diocese of the Armenian Church, said that the approach of the authorities to resolving the conflict, which boils down to recognizing the Artsakh Republic [Nagorno-Karabakh] as part of Azerbaijan, is “unacceptable.” Galstanyan was behind the protest march  from the Tavush region to Yerevan.

Bishop Galstanyan is not just a local figure. His picture appears on various pro-Armenian outlets abroad, including in the U.S. His campaign is dubbed “the Tavush movement.” Thus, an issue that is supposed to terminate hostility between two neighboring nations has become internationalized and has been manipulated. That in turn could hint that the Armenian church is not the only element behind the protest against Pashinyan.

Armenian clerics as an Iranian asset

Numerous Iranian media outlets cover every point of criticism raised against Pashinyan and Persian-language social media accounts show pictures of Bishop Galstanyan. The latter’s activities raised the suspicions of the Armenian security service; they suspect the bishop of cooperating with Russian and Iranian intelligence. These accusations are not the first of their kind, given that the Armenian church has had a years-long tradition of supplying cover and agents for the KGB; in this vein, the Armenian church is not different from the Russian Orthodox Church.

The Iranian regime fears the end of hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan because this would limit its options for disruption. Iranian outlets are replete with antisemitic paranoia against Azerbaijan, accusing the country of awarding its territory to Zionists and NATO. It is no accident that supporters of the Karabakh separatists are quoted in the Russian propaganda outlet Sputnik in Persian. Likewise, it is noteworthy that Armenian nationalists reiterate hideous antisemitic tropes that are identical to those spouted by the Iranians and Palestinians.

Moreover, leading Iranian analysts have no qualms about openly praising the Armenian clergy together with terrorist Iran-funded Azeri movements for working for Iranian goals. The analyst Ehsan Movahedian, an expert on Russia and the Caucasus, tweeted, referring to the Tavush rally, that the Armenian clergy fulfills its historical role in protecting Armenia’s lands. He shared a video clip of himself with Galstaniyan. Shortly after, Movahedian penned an op-ed for the Iranian review of foreign policy, “Iranian Diplomacy.” The title of the article speaks for itself: “The Huseyniyyun movement and the Armenian clergy are two wings of Iran in the South Caucasus.” He argues that what is happening in Armenia right now directly impacts Iran in terms of economy and politics. “We should not let NATO and Zionism defeat the Armenian clergy,” Movahedian notes.

The Axis of Resistance doctrine is indeed a crucial component of Iran’s strategy against Israel, but it is important to note that it extends beyond purely kinetic operations. While the doctrine primarily relies on physical attacks by pro-Iranian militias, it is part of a more comprehensive asymmetric warfare strategy employed by Iran.

The Iranian regime places significant emphasis on diplomatic warfare against Israel, complementing its kinetic operations. This multifaceted approach allows Iran to exert pressure on multiple fronts simultaneously. A prime example of this strategy is Iran’s current focus on the South Caucasus, particularly its efforts against Azerbaijan. In the Caucasus region, Iran skillfully exploits ethnic tensions and manipulates religious institutions, notably the Armenian church and the Shia Azeris in Iran, to further its objectives. This shows the regime’s adeptness at leveraging cultural and religious factors to gain influence and create strategic advantages.

In conclusion, Iran’s approach to confronting Israel is far more nuanced and multidimensional than it may initially appear. By combining physical attacks with diplomatic maneuvering, ethnic manipulation, and religious influence, Iran seeks to create a complex web of pressures against Israel and its allies. This comprehensive approach underscores the need for an equally multifaceted response from Israel and its allies, one that addresses not only the immediate military threats but also the diplomatic, cultural, and religious dimensions of Iran’s strategy. As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, understanding and countering this multifaceted approach will be crucial for maintaining stability in the region and safeguarding Israel’s security interests.


[1] These channels instigate against Azerbaijan and Israel alike.  The channel Ar-Rad Hərbi (Military Storm) emphasizes Germany’s assistance in the “genocide perpetrated in Gaza by the Zionist regime.” https://t.me/ar_rad_herbi/4639.  The Huseyniyyun official channel instigates against Israel using tacit antisemitic tropes: “Yesterday they killed Ali Asghar in Karbala and today they enjoy killing babies in Gaza”. https://t.me/Huseyniyyun_Az/3590. The channel also tacitly supports Armenia and blames the Karabakh war on Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev. It also blames Azerbaijan for using Wahhabi Sunni terrorists against Armenia. https://t.me/Huseyniyyun_Az/1527


JISS Policy Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.


Photo: Iran and Azerbaijan first joint military drill in Poldasht County in the northwestern Iranian province of West Azerbaijan, June 11, 2024. Photo credit: IMAGO / ZUMA Press Wire

Picture of Mr. Alexander Grinberg

Mr. Alexander Grinberg

Capt. (res.) in the IDF Military Intelligence research department. Holds degrees in Middle East and Islamic studies, and Arab language and literature, from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Doctoral student in Iranian history at Tel Aviv University.

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