Dear Subscribers,
The extended waiting period for President Trump’s decision on how to address the threat posed by the Iranian regime to global and regional stability—and to the freedom and quality of life of the Iranian people—has seen, on the one hand, negotiations over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and, on the other, preparations by all parties, particularly the United States, for potential military action. The conclusion of this process is expected to produce a new reality in the Middle East and beyond. That reality will have far-reaching implications for Israel’s security. It is evident that Israel’s interest lies in leveraging the circumstances created by the massacre of protesters in Iran and the concentration of American forces to bring about regime change in Tehran, or at minimum to impose restrictions, under strict and effective supervision, on all problematic components of the regime’s activity. Abandoning these objectives would likely be perceived as a significant achievement for the Islamist regime, particularly if economic sanctions were lifted in exchange for concessions of limited significance in the nuclear domain, thereby enabling the regime to continue acquiring long-range missiles and to rehabilitate its regional proxies.
At the same time, considerable attention is focused on developments in Gaza. The partial ceasefire continues —accompanied by repeated violations by Hamas and firm but localized responses by the IDF. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to consolidate its rule in the territory under its control and has declared that it does not intend to disarm. Conversely, the United States, through the “Peace Council” and affiliated bodies operating on its behalf, is preparing to implement Phase II of President Trump’s peace plan, whose practical execution requires Hamas’s disarmament. This impasse may compel Israel to undertake military action to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities, with American backing and without the constraints previously imposed by the presence of hostages held by Hamas, and by concerns that in the absence of a “day after” plan the IDF would be required to continue governing the Strip.
These two issues have been the primary focus of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security in recent weeks. The head of the Institute, Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser, published an article on the importance of regime change in Iran and Gaza and addressed the issue at length in an interview on the JISS podcast (hosted by Yaakov Lappin) as well as in several media interviews. Institute researchers Dr. Avi Davidi and Alex Grinberg also addressed the subject in their publications. The Palestinian issue received extensive treatment from the Institute’s CEO, Col. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni, and research fellow Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Winner. Institute fellows Dr. Pnina Shuker and Dr. Ariel Admoni examined the problematic role Qatar may play in Phase II of the implementation of the Trump plan.
The Institute also devoted particular attention to the growing challenge posed by Turkey. The issue was addressed in depth in a webinar featuring Institute researchers Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, Prof. Efraim Inbar, Gabi Siboni, Yonatan Hasen, and Prof. Hüseyin Bağcı of Turkey. Alex Grinberg published two articles on the growing concern in Ankara regarding the possibility of American military action in Iran. Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner proposed guiding principles for Israeli policy in addressing the Turkish challenge.
Institute researchers and guest contributors continued to examine a wide range of additional issues affecting Israel’s security. Prof. Efraim Inbar argued that Israel should adopt a cautious policy befitting a small state and avoid the temptation to view itself as a great power despite its impressive achievements. Efraim Inbar and Sasson Hadad proposes the establishment of a “Foreign Legion” to address the IDF’s manpower shortage. Prof. Kobi Michael and Dr. Yoel Guzansky contend that, in certain cases, the appropriate response to internal tensions in failing Arab states is to partition the state among rival factions. The successful American action against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela and its implications for Iran and Israel were analyzed in articles by senior research fellow Dr. Emmanuel Navon; Gabi Siboni and Erez Winner; and research assistant Nathan Mamou. Ahead of the Indian prime minister’s visit to Israel, Dr. Oshrit Birvadker described India’s important role as chair of BRICS this year and examined the implications of the groundbreaking trade agreement between India and the European Union, outlining their significance for Israel. Dr. Emmanuel Navon separately analyzed Israel’s unique role in the global critical minerals sector following a conference convened by the U.S. administration on the issue. Ari Heistein described developments in Yemen that have led to tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Wang Shuangcheng analyzed the implications of regional developments for trade between Israel and China. In the wake Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, Vita Avrahamov presented a “guide to the perplexed” covering foreign involvement in the Horn of Africa. Benjamin Ames wrote about Hamas activity in Europe, with particular emphasis on financial networks, following the arrest of Hamas operatives in Italy. Dr. Ariel Admoni described Qatar’s problematic conduct in the international system, which, in his view, has been subjected to sufficient scrutiny.
Special attention should be given to the Institute’s English-language webinar series conducted jointly with the Begin Center. To date, the series has featured Yossi Kuperwasser on the strategic picture; Dr. Eran Lerman on the Trump plan for Gaza; Prof. Hillel Frisch on the future of the Palestinian Authority; and Gabi Siboni on the military lessons of October 7. In the next installment of the series (March 4), Alex Grinberg will address Iran.
Finally, we are pleased to announce that former Member of Knesset Idan Roll has joined the Institute. Idan served as deputy foreign minister in 2021–2022 and was notable for his clear assessment of Israel’s security challenges, including foreign relations, antisemitism, and delegitimization.
The continuation of the Institute’s extensive work depends on your support, and we would be deeply grateful for your contribution to this effort.
Brig. Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser
Head of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security
