מכון מחקר מכוון מדיניות בנושאי חוץ וביטחון למען ישראל בטוחה

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אלוף משנה (בדימוס) ד"ר ערן לרמן

סגן נשיא מכון ירושלים לאסטרטגיה ולביטחון.

ד"ר לרמן הוא שימש כסגן למדיניות חוץ ועניינים בינלאומיים במועצה לביטחון לאומי. הוא מילא תפקידים בכירים בצה"ל במשך למעלה מעשרים שנה. הוא שימש במשך שמונה שנים כמנהל המשרד לישראל והמזרח תיכון של הוועד היהודי האמריקני. הוא מלמד בתוכנית ללימודי המזה"ת במכללת שלם בירושלים, ובתוכניות לתואר שני באוניברסיטת תל אביב ובמכללה לביטחון לאומי. הוא מומחה ליחסי החוץ של ישראל ולמזרח התיכון. צבר, דור שלישי בארץ, ד"ר לרמן הוא בעל תואר דוקטור מאת London School of Economics, ובהמשך הקריירה קיבל תואר שני במנהל ציבורי (MPA) מאוניברסיטת הרווארד.

Jordanian King Abdullah II

Iranian Subversive Efforts in Jordan: A Strategic Threat Requiring a Robust Response

24/07/2024 אין תגובות

Against the background of Hamas' ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan's supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into "another Gaza", as Supreme Leader 'Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.

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Eran Lerman

The Israel-US-Morocco Triangle and the Potential for Cooperation in Africa – Dr. Eran Lerman, JISS

11/07/2024 אין תגובות

The lecture was part of the session on the Middle East Regional Powers' Struggle in Africa at the "Africa and Israel: Building Strategic and Economic Bridges" conference held on July 2, 2024, at Tel-Aviv University. The conference is a collaboration between the S. Daniel Abraham Center for International and Regional Studies at Tel-Aviv University, the Israel-Africa Relations Institute (IAI), and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).

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Middle east map

The Game of Camps Revisited: Where are we in 2024?

13/05/2024 אין תגובות

As the Arab world fell apart after 2011, one way to navigate the new realities in the region was through the identification of ideological "camps", at conflict with each other. While radical jihadists such as Islamic State (Da’esh), which was at the peak of its power a decade ago, are no longer real challengers for hegemony in the region, two other variations on the theme of Islamist totalitarianism – the Muslim Brotherhood camp, including Hamas, backed by Qatar and Turkey; and the Iranian revolutionary camp, and its proxies – are still actively seeking to overthrow the existing order, and to grow in power as the American role recedes. Facing both is the camp – loosely defined as the “camp of stability” – to which Israel belongs by right, and which acted together in foiling Iran's attack on Israel (April 14, 2024). This mapping of the region lends the war in Gaza a broader significance: it is bound to have a long-term effect, insofar as the survival of Hamas would change the balance of power between the "camps".

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A missile is carried on a truck during the Army Day parade at a military base in northern Tehran.

Iran’s foiled attack and Israel’s Response: Not (Yet) a Point of Inflection in Israel’s War Strategy

13/05/2024 אין תגובות

Iran's assault on Israel changed the rules of the regional game – but as Israel's measured response indicates, it is not yet a point of transition for Israel from its focus on Gaza to a broader regional war. The withdrawal of the IDF’s 98th Division from Khan Younis did not signal a termination of the effort to destroy Hamas: rather, it was taken in preparation for the next stage, that must involve the creation of conditions for the displaced population in the Rafah area to be evacuated to the north, in the context of a military campaign conducted with growing attention to the needs of the Gazan population. But in the absence of a clear formulation for "the day after," Israel's choices are likely to be misinterpreted as signs of incoherent policy.

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Netanyahu, Biden and the floating pier in Gaza

The American Pier in Gaza: An Opening to US-Israeli Cooperation in Gaza

31/03/2024 אין תגובות

Some Israelis fear US plans to build an off-shore pier to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza could interfere with Israel’s war objectives. However, given the agreed interest in the success of the humanitarian effort, and the track record in recent years of close Israeli coordination with the US Central Command (CENTCOM), this could be a building block towards a coherent "day after" strategy, if political imperatives on both sides do not get in the way.

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