Dr. Lerman was deputy director for foreign policy and international affairs at the National Security Council in the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office. He held senior posts in IDF Military Intelligence for over 20 years. He also served for eight years as director of the Israel and Middle East office of the American Jewish Committee. He teaches in the Middle East studies program at Shalem College in Jerusalem, and in post-graduate programs at Tel Aviv University and the National Defense College. He is an expert on Israel’s foreign relations, and on the Middle East. A third-generation Sabra, he holds a Ph.D. from the London School of Economics, and a mid-career MPA from Harvard University.
The ceasefire that went into effect in the early hours of November 27, 2024, must mark the beginning of the effort to break Iran’s grip
Has the concept of deterrence, long a cornerstone of Israel’s defense doctrine, been rendered largely irrelevant? Do the lessons of the war so far –
Since October 7, the Biden administration has talked tough on Iran and its proxies, however its actions have been constrained by domestic and strategic considerations. Whoever wins the U.S. presidential elections will need to be far more resolute if they are to be denied their bid for regional hegemony.
Hassan Nasrallah’s threats to broaden the scope of the war serve as a reminder of the importance of Israel’s sea lanes of communication as a strategic frontier, and of its cooperation with these key Eastern Mediterranean nations – with whom it shares common threat perceptions.
Nearly a year has passed since Hezbollah initiated a mid-intensity conflict with Israel, ostensibly to “support” Hamas in Gaza (a goal it failed to achieve)
Executive Summary As its remarkable history indicates, the relationship between Morocco and Israel is unlike any other in the region. Even in these troubled times,
Against the background of Hamas’ ongoing war with Israel (and the expressions of support for it among Palestinians and Islamists in Jordan), the Iranian regime has intensified its efforts to subvert the Hashemite monarchy. The arrests in March 2024 of Iranian agents involved in smuggling arms to Muslim Brotherhood elements in Jordan are part of a campaign to counter the role of Tehran in bringing both drugs and weapons over the Syrian and Iraqi borders into Jordan. Tensions rose further over Jordan’s supportive role in foiling the Iranian attack on Israel on 14 April 2024. For the Iranian regime, the destabilization of Jordan is a vital precursor for the strategic goal of turning Judea and Samaria into “another Gaza”, as Supreme Leader ‘Ali Khamenei suggested back in 2014: hence the importance of American and Israeli support for Jordan. The stability of the Kingdom (and thus the need to reduce economic and social strains) is a vital interest of both Israel and the West.
The lecture was part of the session on the Middle East Regional Powers’ Struggle in Africa at the “Africa and Israel: Building Strategic and Economic Bridges” conference held on July 2, 2024, at Tel-Aviv University. The conference is a collaboration between the S. Daniel Abraham Center for International and Regional Studies at Tel-Aviv University, the Israel-Africa Relations Institute (IAI), and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS).
Without real action against Iran and its proxies, few if any in the region would feel safe signing on to the well-meant but ultimately delusional designs presented by Secretary of State Blinken in Munich.
The hostage situation is of utmost importance and must be handled with sensitivity. Creativity, daring and flexibility are required to gain their release. The Government of Israel, however, must not be drawn into surrender to Hamas’ demand to end the war. It should also resist the signs of demoralization and skepticism – in the media, and within the defense establishment – casting doubts on the prospects of bringing down Hamas’ rule in Gaza, when progress on the ground points to the IDF’s capabilities.
Beyond the intelligence value obtained and the possible leverage for the release of Israeli hostages, the symbolic signal sent by images of Hamas terrorists giving themselves up is strategically significant. Debunking the myth that Islamist “heroes” are willing to fight to the death, unlike their secular nationalist predecessors in past wars against Israel, should be among the long-term goals of the present conflict.
Some Israelis fear US plans to build an off-shore pier to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza could interfere with Israel’s war objectives. However, given the agreed interest in the success of the humanitarian effort, and the track record in recent years of close Israeli coordination with the US Central Command (CENTCOM), this could be a building block towards a coherent “day after” strategy, if political imperatives on both sides do not get in the way.
